SANDIA REPORT SAND2006-7676 Unlimited Release Printed December 2006 Integrated System Dynamics Toolbox For Water Resources Planning Vincent C. Tidwell, Leonard A. Malczynski, Howard D. Passell, William J. Peplinski, Marissa D. Reno, Janie Chermak, David Brookshire, Jennifer Thacher, Kristine Grimsrud, Craig Broadbent, Jason Hanson, Jesse F. Roach, Enrique Vivoni, Carlos Aragon, Heather Hallett, Kristan Cockerill, and Don Coursey Prepared by Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185 and Livermore, California 94550 Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. Approved for public release; further dissemination unlimited. Issued by Sandia National Laboratories, operated for the United States Department of Energy by Sandia Corporation. 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Springfield, VA 22161 Telephone: (800) 553-6847 Facsimile: (703) 605-6900 E-Mail: [email protected] Online order: http://www.ntis.gov/help/ordermethods.asp?loc=7-4-0#online 2 SAND2006-7676 Unlimited Release Printed December 2006 Integrated System Dynamics Toolbox For Water Resources Planning Vincent Tidwell, Len Malczynski, Enrique Vivoni, Carlos Aragon, Howard Passell, Will Peplinski, and Heather Hallett Marissa Reno, and Jesse Roach New Mexico Tech, Department of Geohydrology Department 6313 Earth and Environmental Sciences Sandia National Laboratories 801 Leroy Place, MSEC 244 P.O. Box 5800 Socorro, NM 87801 Albuquerque, NM 87185-0735 Kristan Cockerill Janie Chermak, David Brookshire, Cockerill Consulting Jennifer Thacher, Kristine Grimsrud, 207 Cecil Miller Rd #2 Craig Broadbent, and Jason Hanson Boone, NC 28607 The University of New Mexico Don Coursey Department of Economics University of Chicago 1915 Roma NE/ Economics Building Graduate of Public Policy Studies, 130 Harris Albuquerque, NM 87131-1101 5801 South Ellis Chicago, IL 60637 Abstract Public mediated resource planning is quickly becoming the norm rather than the exception. Unfortunately, supporting tools are lacking that interactively engage the public in the decision-making process and integrate over the myriad values that influence water policy. In the pages of this report we document the first steps toward developing a specialized decision framework to meet this need; specifically, a modular and generic resource-planning “toolbox.” The technical challenge lies in the integration of the disparate systems of hydrology, ecology, climate, demographics, economics, policy and law, each of which influence the supply and demand for water. Specifically, these systems, their associated processes, and most importantly the constitutive relations that link them must be identified, abstracted, and quantified. For this reason, the toolbox forms a collection of process modules and constitutive relations that the analyst can “swap” in and out to model the physical and social systems unique to their problem. This toolbox with all of its modules is developed within the common computational platform of system dynamics linked to a Geographical Information System (GIS). 3 Development of this resource-planning toolbox represents an important foundational element of the proposed interagency center for Computer Aided Dispute Resolution (CADRe). The Center’s mission is to manage water conflict through the application of computer-aided collaborative decision-making methods. The Center will promote the use of decision-support technologies within collaborative stakeholder processes to help stakeholders find common ground and create mutually beneficial water management solutions. The Center will also serve to develop new methods and technologies to help federal, state and local water managers find innovative and balanced solutions to the nation’s most vexing water problems. The toolbox is an important step toward achieving the technology development goals of this center. 4 ACKNOWLDEGEMENTS The authors wish to acknowledge the support, help, and review provided by a wide range of individuals throughout the duration of this project. Specific reference is made to individuals at the end of the chapters to which they contributed. The authors also wish to acknowledge that funding for this project was provided by Sandia National Laboratories’ Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program. 5 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND BACKGROUND............................................................... 21 1.1 Justification................................................................................................................... 21 1.2 Objective....................................................................................................................... 22 1.3 Approach....................................................................................................................... 22 1.4 Model Architecture....................................................................................................... 23 1.5 Summary of Results...................................................................................................... 24 1.6 Report Outline............................................................................................................... 25 2. SURFACE WATER PROCESS MODULES.......................................................................... 27 2.1 Introduction................................................................................................................... 27 2.2 Model Development...................................................................................................... 27 2.2.1 Spatial and Temporal Extent and Resolution.................................................. 27 2.2.2 Conceptual Model........................................................................................... 32 2.2.3 Mathematical Model....................................................................................... 32 2.3 Results........................................................................................................................... 69 2.3.1 Calibration Residuals...................................................................................... 69 2.3.2 Mass Balance in Each Reach and Reservoir Compared to URGWOM ......... 69 2.3.3 Future Results................................................................................................. 69 2.4 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 77 2.5 Acknowledgments......................................................................................................... 77 3. GROUNDWATER PROCESS MODULES ........................................................................... 79 3.1 Introduction................................................................................................................... 79 3.2 Conceptual Model: Compartmental Groundwater Model ............................................ 79 3.2.1 Stability Criteria.............................................................................................. 82 3.2.2 Boundary and Source Terms........................................................................... 83 3.2.3 Groundwater Compartment Delineation......................................................... 83 3.3 Compartmental Model Development Using a MODFLOW Model ............................. 84 3.3.1 Define Groundwater Compartments............................................................... 85 3.3.2 Describe Head-Dependent Groundwater Flow Between Compartments ....... 85 3.3.3 Calibrate Boundary and Source Flows ........................................................... 86 3.3.4 Validate Spatially Aggregated Model............................................................. 88 3.4 Case Studies in the Rio Grande River-Aquifer System in New Mexico ...................... 90 3.4.1 Case Study 1: The Albuquerque Groundwater Basin....................................