ABSTRACT Title of dissertation: THE POLITICS OF INSURGENCY Maegen Gandy, Doctor of Philosophy, 2015 Dissertation directed by: Professor George Quester Department of Government and Politics This dissertation introduces a new definition of insurgency for academic discourse. It also argues that four components of a defined relationship framework must interoperate to satisfy organizational requirements and processes in order for an insurgency to achieve increasing levels of scale. From a systemic perspective, it presents a connective theory of constitutive and destructive mechanisms to assess why certain movements expand or ignite while others degrade or get stuck in a particular phase. The proposed perspective provides improved analytic leverage over existing phasing models. Chapter 1 introduces the scope and definition of the politics of insurgency. Chapter 2 presents academic, military, and legal perspectives of the phenomenon. Chapters 3 and 4 explain the limitations of existing insurgency models within the context of two historic case studies, the Chinese and Algerian Revolutions. Chapter 5 introduces the dissertation’s full phasing model. Chapters 6 and 7 present case studies to further elucidate the proposed relationship framework and composite phasing construct, assessing strengths and weaknesses in light of two comparable cases. The Chechen and Kosovar Albanian insurgencies provide insight and applied examples of the activities that occur within each phase. Chapter 8 then consolidates the findings and analysis from the case studies and assesses the viability of the phasing model as a usable tool to better comprehend insurgency behavior, movement scalability, and associated response options. THE POLITICS OF INSURGENCY by Maegen L. Gandy Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2015 Advisory Committee: Professor George Quester, Chair Professor Sarah Croco Professor David Cunningham Professor I.M. Destler Professor Mark Lichbach @Copywright by Maegen L. Gandy 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables 2.1 Legal Thresholds of Insurgency 56 2.2 Basic Phases of Insurgent Movements 63 2.3 Preliminary Phases of Insurgent Movements 64 3.1 Mao’s Stages and Steps 73 3.2 Mao’s Strategy Impacts 77 3.3 Mao and Galula Orthodox Step Comparison 89 3.4 Preliminary Phases of Insurgent Movements 91 3.5 Mao and Galula Orthodox Step Comparison 109 4.1 Mao and Galula Orthodox and Shortcut Step Comparison 123 4.2 Galula and SORO Step Comparison 138 4.3 Mao, Galula, and SORO Synthesized Phasing Comparison 146 5.1 Mao, Galula, and SORO Synthesized Phasing Comparison 152 5.2 Preliminary Phases of Insurgent Movements 153 5.3 Violent Mechanisms in Coordination with the Vanguard 157-8 5.4 Composite Insurgency Phasing Model 159 6.1 Composite Insurgency Phasing Model 165 6.2 Chechen Insurgency Maturity by Phase 210-11 7.1 Composite Insurgency Phasing Model 215 7.2 Kosovar Albanian Insurgency Maturity by Phase 299 8.1 Mao, Galula, and SORO Synthesized Phasing Comparison 304 8.2 Composite Insurgency Phasing Model 309 8.3 Chechen Insurgency Maturity by Phase 312-13 8.4 Kosovar Albanian Insurgency Maturity by Phase 313-14 List of Figures 1.1 Insurgency Relationship Framework 8 2.1 A Globalized Web of Militancy 28 2.2 Increasing Levels of Insurgent Violence in Revolution 33 2.3 FM 3-25, Figure 4-1 Conflict Resolution Model 46 2.4 Resistance Movements on the Continuum 51 2.5 Insurgency Relationship Framework 58 2.6 Internal Insurgency Assimilation across the Framework 60 2.7 Insurgency Assimilation of State Mechanisms across the Framework 61 3.1 Insurgency Relationship Framework 85 6.1 Insurgency Relationship Framework 163 6.2 Political Map of the Caucasus Region (2008) 166 7.1 Insurgency Relationship Framework 216 7.2 Political Map of Kosovo (2015) 218 7.3 Three Principal KLA Zones 259 Chapter 1: Introduction to the Politics of Insurgent Movements 1 1.1 Introductory Vignettes: A Legacy of Insurgency across the Centuries 1 1.1.1 Eighteenth-Century America 1 1.1.2 Nineteenth-Century Egypt 2 1.1.3 Twentieth-Century China 4 1.1.4 Twenty-first-Century Mexico 5 1.2 Where is the Comparative Anatomy of Insurgency? 6 1.3 Purpose 11 ii 1.4 Organizing Questions 12 1.5 Defining Insurgency in the Literature 12 1.6 Research Methods and Procedures 19 Chapter 2: Literature Review 23 2.1 Insurgency Theory 23 2.2 Academic Perspectives of Insurgency, Civil War, and Revolution 24 2.2.1 Insurgency Basics 24 2.2.2 Insurgency and Civil War 27 2.2.3 Insurgency and Revolution 32 2.3 Operational Perspectives of Insurgency 39 2.4 Legal Perspectives of Insurgency and the Synthesized Model Foundation 50 2.5 A Theory of the Politics of Insurgency 56 Chapter 3: The Chinese Communist Revolutions and Basic Insurgency Modeling 66 3.1 Introduction 66 3.2 Mao’s Theory on the Practice of Revolution 66 3.2.1 Stage One: The Strategic Defensive 74 3.2.2 Stage Two: Strategic Stalemate 78 3.2.3 Stage Three: Strategic Counteroffensive 82 3.2.4 A Solid Foundation from Which to Grow 83 3.3 Galula’s Contribution to the Communist Model 88 3.3.1 Step One: A New Addition to the Orthodox Model 91 3.3.2 Step Two: New Meaning to the United Front 94 3.3.3 Steps Three through Five: Building a Military Capacity 109 3.4 The Emerging Picture 114 Chapter 4: The Algerian Revolution and Integrating Insurgency Models 117 4.1 Galula’s Shortcut Pattern: An Evolutionary Process 117 4.2 The Algerian Case and Galula 119 4.2.1 Shortcut Steps – A Shotgun Strategy via Blind Terrorism 124 4.2.2 Shortcut Steps – Selective Terrorism 130 4.3 The Special Operations Research Office (SORO) 137 4.3.1 The SORO Contribution Regarding Insurgent Behavior 139 4.4 Do the Available Models Measure Up? 147 Chapter 5: A Framework for Insurgency Analysis 149 5.1 Insurgency Theory 149 5.2 A Deeper Discussion of Insurgency Phasing and the Relationship Framework 151 Chapter 6: The Politics of Insurgency Case Study 1: The Chechen Revolution 162 6.1 The Case of Chechnya 162 6.2 Insurgency Origins in Chechnya 166 6.2.1 Relationships and Phasing of the Initial Chechen Resistance 179 6.3 Chechnya’s Insurgency Anatomy 186 6.4 The First Chechen War and Its Aftermath 195 6.5 The Second Chechen War and Beyond 203 6.6 Chechnya Today and Concluding Thoughts 208 iii Chapter 7: The Politics of Insurgency Case Study 2: The Kosovar Albanian Revolution 212 7.1 The Case of Kosovo 212 7.2 Insurgency Origins in Kosovo 217 7.3 The Birth of Kosovo’s Political Mechanism and Continued Rural Resistance 224 7.4 A National Reawakening and the Emergence of the Vanguard 234 7.5 Kosovo’s Parallel Government 243 7.6 The Founding of the KLA 256 7.7 Three Catalyzing Events – Mainstreaming the KLA 264 7.8 War, Exodus, and Western Intervention – A Seat at the Table An End to the Insurgency 284 7.9 Insurgency Transformation 297 Chapter 8: Conclusion to the Politics of Insurgent Movements 301 8.1 The Blind Men and the Elephant 301 8.2 How did the Model Measure Up? 314 8.2.1 Concept Utility 314 8.2.2 Future Research Opportunities 319 8.2.3 Significant to Policy 322 Bibliography 326 iv Chapter 1 Introduction, The Politics of Insurgent Movements 1.1 Introductory Vignettes: A Legacy of Insurgency across the Centuries 1.1.1 Eighteenth-Century America The American Revolution came to an end with the Treaty of Paris in April of 1783. The Continental Army, by then a conventional military force, had defeated the British at the Battle of Yorktown, effectively capturing thousands of soldiers. The initial rebellion, however, began through political channels eighteen years earlier when the First Congress of the American Colonies protested the British Stamp Act and issued a Declaration of Rights and Grievances addressed to Parliament and the king. Also in 1765, the resistance established the Sons of Liberty, a very capable growing underground organization that circulated propaganda across the colonies, mobilizing colonists into mobs and persecuting loyalists. Many participants in the underground served as members of state and continental governing bodies. They leveraged connections within business and trade and joined the leadership of local communities through church congregations and other important civic organizations. Although independence was not declared until 1776, the American resistance established a unified federated government in the Continental Congress in 1774. As John Adams’s personal letters suggest, “the revolution was effected before the war commenced” because the inhabitants of the colonies were “formed by law into corporations, or bodies politic,” possessing the right to assemble in town halls “to 1 deliberate upon the public affairs;” it was “in these assemblies of towns or districts that the sentiments of the people were formed in the first place.”1 Political constitution-making ran in parallel to armed resistance and achieved milestones toward statehood in numerous areas.2 Local guerrilla forces such as the Minutemen and the Green Mountain Boys confronted British troops while George Washington, who was appointed commander in chief in 1775, developed a viable conventional military capacity out of regional militias and resisting local communities. The nation also moved away from colony-based currencies toward the establishment of the Continental dollar. The first Bank of North America was founded in 1782 and soon transitioned the colonial confederation to a gold-based economy. In 1777, the leaders of the revolution published the Articles of Confederation, a constitutional framework based on principles of democratic governance.