Draft DECISION OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA [Date, N…] ON APPROVAL OF THE NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 2021-2030 OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA TO PARIS AGREEMENT Based on the Article 146 of the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia and taking into consideration paragraphs 2, 3, 4 and 8 of Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, the Government of the Republic of Armenia decides to: 1. Approve the Nationally determined contribution 2021-2030 of the Republic of Armenia to the Paris Agreement. 2. This decision enters into force the next day following its official publication. Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia N. Pashinyan [Date] 1 Annex to the Government Decision N xxx dated xxx NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 2021-2030 OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA TO THE PARIS AGREEMENT 1. The Republic of Armenia ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in May 1993. In December 2002, Armenia ratified the Kyoto Protocol, and in February 2017, it ratified the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. In May 2019, the Republic of Armenia ratified the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, undertaking a commitment to phase down HFCs1. Armenia remains committed to multilateral process addressing the climate change; 2. The Republic of Armenia submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC Secretariat in September 2015. The INDC started with a preparatory period 2015-2019, following with a next phase from 2020, with a horizon to 2050; 3. With the ratification of the Paris Agreement in February 2017, the INDC of Armenia became its nationally determined contribution (NDC) for the period of 2015 – 2050; 4. The Republic of Armenia is a developing country and, as a developing country Party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, it is not included in the Annex I to the Convention. Article 4, paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement provides that developed country Parties should continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reductions targets, and that developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances; 5. In its 2015 INDC, Armenia undertook to pursue economy-wide mitigation measures, striving to achieve per capita net emissions of 2.07 tCO2eq in 2050, subject to adequate international financial, technological and capacity-building support; 6. By mid-century, Armenia is going to double its share of renewable energy on the path to achieve zero-carbon energy generation in the second half of this century. 7. Armenia is a land-locked country with vulnerable mountainous ecosystems, already facing negative impacts of climate change and water scarcity. Therefore, adaptation policies and measures are of paramount importance for Armenia’s ability to achieve its social and economic development goals; 8. This submission constitutes the update of the INDC, which was submitted in 2015, following guidance provided by decision 4/CMA.1, decision 9/CMA.1 and decision 18/CMA.1. It provides up- front information on the emission reductions to be achieved by 2030 and on adaptation measures to be undertaken as part of the NDC, together with information on “action and support”; 9. The NDC is based on the principle of green economy and is compatible with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) reflected in social and economic development goals of the Republic of Armenia; 10. In its updated NDC, the Republic of Armenia adopts a ten-year NDC implementation period (2021- 2030) unlike its INDC, which proposed a timeframe of 2015-2050. Armenia maintains its 2050 mitigation goal of reducing its GHG emissions to at most 2.07 tCO2eq/capita, reflected in its Long 1 From year 2033, the ban will be enacted on the import of HFCs to the Republic of Armenia from the countries that are not Parties to Kigali Amendment, export to the said countries, as well as the transit transfer of HFCs through the territory of the Republic of Armenia to the said countries. 2 Term - Low Emission Development Strategy (LTS-LEDS). The new mitigation target to be achieved in 2030 equals 40 per cent reduction below 1990 emissions levels. QUANTIFIABLE INFORMATION ON THE REFERENCE POINT 1. Reference year 1990 2. Quantifiable information • 40 per cent reduction from 1990 emission levels by 2030 on the reference indicators • Total GHG emissions 1990: 25,855, Gg CO2eq • Net GHG emissions 1990: 25,118, Gg CO2eq, (NIR 1990- 2017) 3. Sources of data used in • Historical data are quoted from the National Greenhouse quantifying the reference Gas Inventory Report of the Republic of Armenia for 1990- points 2017, Yerevan 2020; NIR 2017 • Calculations of the 2030 emissions target are based on: − 1990-2017 GHG Inventory data; − The main provisions of the new "Strategic Program for the Development of the Energy Sector of the Republic of Armenia (until 2040)”, providing for more ambitious development of renewable energy and further lifetime extension of the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant. The measures provided in the new Strategy have been prioritized in the Programme of the Government of the Republic of Armenia, adopted in 2019, justifying projections of GHG emissions from the Energy Sector; − Emissions targets for IPPU, Agriculture and Waste sectors are based on the projections and assumptions provided in 4th National Communication. 4. The circumstances under The values of reference indicators may be updated in the event which the Republic of of further improvements made to the National GHG Inventory Armenia may update the such as higher tier approaches for sub-categories, including values of reference data for new sub-categories, updates to country-specific indicators emission factors or other improvements resulted from the quality assurance of GHG Inventory, inter alia, identified within the Technical Analysis of the NIRs. TIMEFRAMES AND/OR PERIODS OF IMPLEMENTATION 5. Timeframe 1 January 2021 – 31 December 2030 6. Number of targets Single year target (2030) SCOPE AND COVERAGE 7. General description of the Economy-wide target 1. Carbon dioxide (CO2) 8. GHG covered 2. Methane (CH4) 3 3. Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 4. F-gases (HFCs, SF6) These gases are compiled in the National Inventory of greenhouse gases. 9. Sectors covered Sectors included in the mitigation contribution: a. Energy (Energy Production and Use) b. Industrial Processes and Product Use (Mineral Industry and F-gases) c. Agriculture (Enteric Fermentation, Direct and Indirect N2O Emissions from managed soils) d. Waste (Solid Waste management, Wastewater) e. Forestry (afforestation, forest protection) and Other Land Use. PLANNING PROCESSES 10. Planning processes and Planning processes: implementation plans • Coordination of the NDC preparation and monitoring of its implementation is a task of the Inter-agency Coordinating Council on Climate Change, established by the Decision No 955 of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia of 02 October 2012. The Council is composed of representatives of 10 ministries, three State agencies adjunct to the Government and two independent bodies, namely the Armenian Public Services Regulatory Commission and the Armenian Statistics Committee. • Public consultation process of the NDC update has been carried out in line with the government procedures, including involvement of the civil society, in a gender- responsive manner, and followed by a parliamentary debate. In the planning processes, the following national circumstances have been considered: • Armenia GHG emissions come primarily from the energy sector (electricity and heat generation, other stationary and mobile combustion including in transport and residential sectors, fugitive emissions from natural gas system). In 2018, total primary energy supply (TPES) in Armenia amounted to 3.15 million toe or 1.1 toe/capita; • Armenia has practically no domestic resources of fossil fuels and highly depends on fossil fuel imports. In 2018, 28.4 per cent of TPES was covered by indigenous resources: nuclear energy, hydro energy, biofuels and small share of solar and wind energy. Natural gas accounted for 64.9 per cent of Armenia’s TPES in 2018 (2.04 million toe), followed by oil products: 10.2 per cent (0.3 million toe). Energy efficiency, energy conservation and renewable energy development are key priorities for 4 the country’s energy security and key drivers of low carbon development; • In 2018, Armenia produced 0.67 million toe electricity, of which 43.3 per cent came from natural gas fired thermal power plants, 29.8 per cent came from hydro power plants, 26.6 per cent came from nuclear power plant and 0.3 per cent from wind and solar plants. Since 1990, Armenia gradually and completely phased out fuel oil (mazut) from the electricity mix. The government of Armenia does not subsidize the use of fossil fuels; • Total final consumption of energy in 2018 was 2.15 million toe. Households are the largest consumers of final energy (33.1 per cent). Transport is the second largest final energy consuming sector (33.0 per cent); • Armenia is a small, landlocked country, it is responsible for 0.02 per cent of global GHG emissions. In 2017, total GHG emissions amounted to 10,624 Gg CO2eq and net GHG emissions amounted to 10,180 Gg CO2eq (NIR 2017); • Armenia is an upper-middle income country with a small population, yet Armenia is assuming its responsibility and is ready to do its fair share in terms of emission reductions. In line with the outcomes of the Talanoa Dialogue of 2017- 2018, Armenia is prepared to increase its ambition and in time go climate neutral with the help of international donors; • Long-term planning until 2050 will be undertaken as part of preparation of Armenia’s Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy, with a view to the government adopting this document in 2021.