FMSO.LEAVENWORTH.ARMY.MIL/OEWATCH Vol. 5 Issue #06 June 2015 Foreign Military Studies Office OEWATCH FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT Special Essay: The Significance of Changes in RUSSIA’S MILITARY DOCTRINE RUSSIA CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA 3 The Future of Contract Service in the Russian 34 Tajikistan to Forgive Jihadists? 64 Who Invented Liberation Theology? Federation? 35 Tajikistan’s Reaction to the Violence in Kunduz 65 How Close Are Venezuela and Iran? 5 C2, Combat Support, and Strategic Mobility of 36 Russia’s Military Presence in Central Asia 66 Professor Alejandro Moreno Outlines Russia’s Troops in Eastern Ukraine 37 A Face of Drug Trafficking in Central Asia the Growth and Symptoms of Social Chaos 8 Differentiating Special Operations Forces from 38 One Road, One Belt, But Many Security Risks in 67 Drone Production in Argentina Spetsnaz Central Asia 68 Los Perrones, the Powerful Criminal Group 10 Report on Russian Arms Procurements Known by Few 12 Russian Airborne Adding Heavy Tanks to the MIDDLE EAST 69 The Destruction of Narco Air Strips in Honduras Ranks 39 Call to Reform Jordan’s Security Services 70 Security Concerns and Kidnappings Continue 13 Russia’s Growing Militarism 40 Detritus From Saudi Arabia’s ‘Diplomatic Storm’ to Affect Mexican Ranchers 15 Russian-Armenian Relations Continue to 41 Khamenei Speaks to Army Deteriorate 42 Supreme Leader Speaks on Police and Security INDO-PACIFIC ASIA 17 First Russian-Chinese Joint Naval Exercises 43 Imprisoned Cleric’s Wife Writes Intelligence 71 Anonymity: A Look at ISIL Recruitment in in the Mediterranean Minister Malaysia 18 Russia’s Budding Energy Cooperation with 44 Boko Haram in Iraq: A Growing Reality 72 Thailand Develops Mini-UAV Greece 45 No Joy in Sinai 73 DNA Swabs Being Used to Counter Insurgency 19 The Changing Face of Underwater Combat 47 The Islamic State’s Suicide Fighters in Thailand 20 More Mistral Mystery 49 Yemen: The Islamic State in Shabwa 22 Perils of Positive Military Reporting CHINA 24 Timely Military Justice? AFRICA 74 High Speed Rail: Future Chinese Military 25 Airborne and Amphibious Exercise in the 51 Liberia: The Link Between Good Governance Transport Russian Far East and Overcoming Ebola 75 Looking the Other Way: Chinese Interpretations 27 Floating Collection Platforms in Arctic 53 The African Standby Force and its Unsolved of Russia’s Annexation of Crimea 28 Ahoy There, Nuclear Power Plant Sailing to Port Problems 76 China Considers Cyber Warfare and the Law 29 You Call that a Main Tank Gun? Now This is a 55 Chad: Nigerian Willingness to Cooperate a of Armed Conflict: Part Two, Should Cyber War Main Tank Gun Stumbling Block in Fighting Boko Haram be Regulated by the Law of Armed Conflict 31 Russia’s Ground Troops 56 Buhari and the Nigerian Military: Changes to 77 China Considers Cyber Warfare and the Law 32 Russia’s Wants to Prevent Provocations Come? of Armed Conflict: Part Three/Four, Restrictions 58 France Reconsiders Role in West Africa of Cyber Warfare from the Law of Armed EUROPE Conflict/Self Defense in Cyber War/Liabilities of 33 Croatia Offers Political And Military Support to TURKEY Cyber War Afghanistan 59 A New Turkey-Saudi Arabia Axis? 78 Wider Role for Chinese Currency Will Lead to 33 Islamic Violence Aggravates Bosnian Ethnic 60 Tensions in Turkish-Greek Relations over the Greater Global Influence Tensions Aegean 62 Turkey and Russia Moving Forward on Strategic SPECIAL ESSAY Energy Cooperation 80 The Significance of Changes in Russia’s Military Doctrine The Foreign Military Studies Office OEWATCH (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, Foreign News & Perspectives is part of the US Army Training and of the Operational Environment Doctrine Command G-2’s Operational Volume 5 | Issue 06 May | 2015 Environment Enterprise and for over 25 Regional Analysts and years has conducted open source research Expert Contributors on foreign perspectives of defense and Africa Robert Feldman security issues, emphasizing those topics Jason Warner that are understudied or unconsidered. Jacob Zenn Operational Environment Watch provides Middle East Tara Beeny translated selections and analysis from Michael Rubin a diverse range of foreign articles and Lucas Winter other media that our analysts and expert Turkey Karen Kaya contributors believe will give military China, Korea Cindy Hurst and security professionals an added Youngjun Kim dimension to their critical thinking about Chris Marsh the Operational Environment. Tim Thomas Blaze Zandoli Jacob Zenn India, Southeast Asia Cindy Hurst Materials, outside of the original foreign press article, under copyright have not been used. All articles published Mexico, South America Geoff Demarest in the Operational Environment Watch are not provided Brenda Fiegel in full, and were originally published in foreign (non-US) Kevin Grilo media. FMSO has provided some editing, format, and graphics Central Asia Michael Rose to these articles to conform to organizational standards. Matthew Stein Academic conventions, source referencing, and citation style are those of the author. Russia, Eastern Europe Chuck Bartles The views expressed are those of the author and Anna Borshchevskaya do not represent the official policy or position of the Christina Chadwick Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the Adam Croft US Government. Release of this information does not Ray Finch imply any commitment or intent on the part of the US Les Grau government to provide any additional information on any James Harvey topic presented herein. Alyssa Jackson Emily Kangas The Operational Environment Watch is archived and available at: http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil. Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editors Ray Finch Contact FMSO at: Harry Orenstein [email protected] Design Editor Hommy Rosado RUSSIA The Future of Contract Service in the Russian Federation? 28 April 2015 “...we hope that eventually our Army will become fully professional.” ~ Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu Source: Roman Kretsul, “Military Service Under Contract Becomes Main Form in Russian Army,” Vzglyad Online, 28 April 2015, http:// www.vz.ru/society/2015/4/28/742706.html, accessed 15 May 2015. OE Watch Commentary: The Military Service Under Contract Becomes Main Form in Russian Army accompanying article discusses the Sergey Shoygu has expressed the hope that one day the Russian Army will become fully recent enlistment of the 300,000th professional. The number of contract personnel in the Russian Federation Armed Forces contract soldier in the Russian military. already exceeds the number of draftees. Does this mean that Russia has acquired the financial Contract service has long been a contentious issue for the Russian military. potential to maintain a professional army -- and how will a fully contract-based method of The idea of a fully contract army was managing affect combat readiness? never popular with many in the Russian On Tuesday Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu welcomed Pavel Sidorov, the 300,000th contract defense establishment, who were troubled member of the Russian Army. The head of the department presented the professional soldier by the implications of the diminished entering into service with a marine beret and an all-season set of field uniform. “With your capability for total war mobilization that the abandonment of conscription raises. arrival we have more people in contract service than in service under the draft,” the minister There is also a belief that professional told him. “And this figure will gradually increase; we hope that eventually our Army will armies are not suitable for prolonged become fully professional.” military conflict, as military service The minister added that at present there are 300,000 contract personnel serving in the Russian becomes much less popular as body Federation Armed Forces, as against 276,000 “draftees.” Under plans made public by the counts rise. military department last year, by 2017 there should be up to half a million contract personnel in Previous Defense Minister Anatoliy the Armed Forces. Serdyukov abandoned the idea of a fully Shoygu is the first official of such high rank in many years to talk about the possibility of contract army during his tenure, one of building a fully professional army in Russia. This subject was popular in the 1990s when, the few things that he did that appealed to the old-school thinkers in the defense in the context of the collapse of the army, the theft of state property, and reports on what the establishment who desperately wanted conditions of service were like at the time, masses of young people started to perceive what to maintain the “old” capabilities for Yeltsin’s subordinates said about military duty as a mockery. Yeltsin himself even said that the mass mobilization. Interestingly, as draft would be abolished by the year 2000. However, when that time came, Defense Minister the accompanying article mentions, Sergey Ivanov, who was appointed in 2001, stated: After analyzing foreign experience it was the current, and very popular Defense decided to stay with the mixed principle of manning. Minister Sergey Shoygu mentions: “We hope that eventually our Army The first experience of recruiting contract personnel left negative impressions with both the will become fully professional.” This military and civilians: People were basically recruited for war, and those wishing to become statement is puzzling, considering the professional soldiers were dispatched not to regular units but to the Caucasus. Subsequently patriotic fervor enveloping Russia there were a great many scandals involving the nonpayment of combat supplements, theft, and now, and is a marked departure from so forth… commentary about this issue from all other senior leaders in the Russian … if contract personnel already account for more than half, what is stopping the remaining defense establishment. As the adoption service members serving under the draft from being replaced? of a fully contract army is extremely First, the financial component plays an important role.