ESSP Report No.1 GCP Report No.1 The Global Carbon Project A framework for Internationally Co-ordinated Research on the Global Carbon Cycle www.globalcarbonproject.org Global Carbon Project The Science Framework and Implementation Editors: Josep G. Canadell, Robert Dickinson, Kathy Hibbard, Michael Raupach & Oran Young Prepared by the Scientific Steering Committee of the Global Carbon Project: Michael Apps, Alain Chedin, Chen-Tung Arthur Chen, Peter Cox, Robert Dickinson, Ellen R.M. Druffel, Christopher Field, Patricia Romero Lankao, Louis Lebel, Anand Patwardhan, Michael Raupach, Monika Rhein, Christopher Sabine, Riccardo Valentini, Yoshiki Yamagata, Oran Young Please, cite this document as: Global Carbon Project (2003) Science Framework and Implementation. Earth System Science Partnership (IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, DIVERSITAS) Report No. 1; Global Carbon Project Report No. 1, 69pp, Canberra. Cover photo credits: Forest Fire: Brian Stocks; Smoke stack: www.freephoto.com; Ocean: Christopher Sabine. Preface We are pleased to launch the Earth System Science We believe that this document will help to encourage, Partnership (ESSP) report series with the publication of promote and shape carbon cycle research around the the Science Framework and Implementation Strategy of world for at least the next decade. Furthermore, we believe the Global Carbon Project. This report marks the that it will provide the framework for a substantially beginning of a new era in international global change enhanced knowledge base for dealing more effectively research, as well as a significant departure from the usual with the challenge of transforming energy systems and way of treating the carbon cycle. managing the global carbon cycle. The ESSP, comprising four global change programmes - Michel Loreau the International Programme of Biodiversity Science Chair, DIVERSITAS (DIVERSITAS); the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP); the International Human Anne Larigauderie Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Executive Director, DIVERSITAS Change (IHDP); and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - has been formed for the integrated Guy Brasseur study of the Earth System, the changes that are occurring Chair, IGBP to this System, and the implications of these changes for Will Steffen global sustainability. The Global Carbon Project, along Executive Director, IGBP with other ESSP projects on food systems, water resources and human health, are designed to make the links between the fundamental research on global change and Coleen Vogel the Earth System carried out in the programmes them- Chair, IHDP selves and issues of vital concern for people. Barbara Göbel Executive Director, IHDP Carbon cycle research is often carried out in isolation from research on energy systems and normally focuses Peter Lemke only on the biophysical patterns and processes of carbon Chair, WCRP sources and sinks. The Global Carbon Project represents a significant advance beyond the status quo in several impor- David Carson tant ways. First, the problem is conceptualised from the Director, WCRP outset as one involving fully integrated human and natural components; the emphasis is on the carbon-climate- human system (fossil-fuel based energy systems + biophys- ical carbon cycle + physical climate system) and not simply on the biophysical carbon cycle alone. Secondly, the development of new methodologies for analysing and modelling the integrated carbon cycle is a central feature of the project. Thirdly, the project provides an internally consistent framework for the coordination and integration of the many national and regional carbon cycle research programmes that are being established around the world. Fourthly, the project addresses questions of direct policy relevance, such as the management strategies and sustain- able regional development pathways required to achieve stabilisation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Finally, the Global Carbon Project goes beyond the traditional set of stakeholders for a global change research project by seeking to engage the industrial and energy sectors as well as the economic development and resource management sectors in the developing regions of the world. Table of Contents Preface Executive Summary 3 1. Introduction 6 The Carbon Challenge .......................................................................................................................................................6 The Vision..........................................................................................................................................................................9 Mandate and Approach ....................................................................................................................................................10 2. Science Themes 11 Theme 1: Patterns and Variability..............................................................................................................................11 Motivation.................................................................................................................................................11 Knowledge base .........................................................................................................................................11 Current research.........................................................................................................................................12 Areas of uncertainty and research priorities................................................................................................19 Theme 2: Processes and Interactions..........................................................................................................................20 Motivation.................................................................................................................................................20 Knowledge base .........................................................................................................................................21 Current research.........................................................................................................................................22 Areas of uncertainty and research priorities................................................................................................26 Theme 3: Carbon Management.................................................................................................................................27 Motivation.................................................................................................................................................27 Knowledge base .........................................................................................................................................28 Current research.........................................................................................................................................28 Areas of uncertainty and research priorities................................................................................................30 3. Implementation Strategy 33 Theme 1: Patterns and Variability..............................................................................................................................33 Activity 1.1: Enhancing observations of major carbon stocks and fluxes....................................................33 Task 1.1.1: Coordination and standardisation of stock and flux measurements ..............................34 Task 1.1.2: Observations of lateral movement of carbon ................................................................34 Task 1.1.3: Observations of other relevant carbon compounds.......................................................36 Activity 1.2: Model development and model-data fusion...........................................................................36 Task 1.2.1: Improvement of forward and inverse models................................................................37 Task 1.2.2: Development of model-data fusion techniques.............................................................37 Activity 1.3: Comprehensive national, regional and sectoral carbon budgets .............................................38 Task 1.3.1: Development of standardized methodologies for estimating comprehensive carbon budgets at regional and basin scales ..................................................................38 Task 1.3.2: Developing methodologies for tracking and projecting temporal changes in regional and basin scale carbon budgets .......................................................................38 Task 1.3.3 Geographic and sectoral analysis of human-induced changes in the carbon cycle..........39 The Science Framework and Implementation Global Carbon Project 1 Theme 2: Processes and Interactions.................................................................................................................................39 Activity 2.1: Mechanisms and feedbacks controlling carbon stocks and fluxes...........................................39 Task 2.1.1: Integrated study of the mechanisms determining ocean carbon dynamics....................39 Task 2.1.2: Integrated study of the mechanisms determining terrestrial carbon dynamics..............40 Task 2.1.3: Integrated study of anthropogenic carbon emissions....................................................40 Activity 2.2: Emergent properties of the coupled carbon-climate system ...................................................40