Himachal Pradesh Post-poll 2012-Survey Findings HIMACHAL PRADESH ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2012: POST POLL SURVEY BY LOKNITI, CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF DEVELOPING SOCIETIES The findings presented here are based on a post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, in Himachal Pradesh in November 2012. It is important to note that this was a post-poll survey conducted at the respondents’ homes a few days after the state went to elections, and not an exit poll which is conducted among voters on the day of voting right outside the polling booth. The purpose of the post-poll survey is not just to find out the voters’ political preferences and forecast the result, but to also determine the reasons for people’s political choices. The post-poll survey in Himachal Pradesh was conducted nearly three weeks after the completion of a pre-poll survey conducted by CSDS in mid-October in the state. In order to study the shift in people’s mood between the two surveys, the post-poll survey was conducted in the same 30 Assembly constituencies where the pre-poll survey was conducted. The respondents for the post-poll survey were also kept the same as the respondents of the pre-poll survey, barring three Assembly constituencies where they were changed as the achieved sample size during the pre-poll exercise was found to be much less than the target. The 30 Assembly constituencies, 4 polling booths within each sampled constituency, and 30 respondents within each sampled polling booth, were all selected using the Systematic Random Sampling technique (a random starting point on each sample frame was chosen and then selections were made at fixed intervals). Apart from this, two more Assembly constituencies were added to the sample in order to correct the relative under-representation of two districts in the pre-poll survey. The process of selecting polling booths and respondents in these two additional seats also followed the random sampling technique. In the end, a total of 2330 persons out of 3840 randomly selected respondents from the latest electoral rolls were interviewed for the post-poll survey between 7th and 14th November 2012 in 127 locations in 32 Assembly constituencies spread across Himachal Pradesh (Table 1). Table 1: Methodology Key facts about the Survey Time period when survey was conducted 7 -14 Nov 2012 Number of Assembly Constituencies in which survey was 32 conducted Number of Polling Stations where survey was conducted 128 Number of respondents targeted 3840 Total respondents interviewed (Sample size) 2330 1 Himachal Pradesh Post-poll 2012-Survey Findings The social profile of the respondents interviewed largely matched the demographic profile of Himachal Pradesh (Table 2). The interviews were conducted by specially trained field investigators. The respondents were interviewed in the face-to-face interview situation using a structured interview schedule in Hindi. Respondents were mostly interviewed at their home, preferably alone. All the respondents were given a ‘secret’ ballot paper designed to look like the list of candidates on the EVM, on which they could mark their choice. This was then placed in a sealed ballot box. This process was followed to ensure that the ‘voters’ knew their response would be confidential. Table 2: Sample profile Social Background Share in total Share in Post-poll population/electorate survey sample Women 48 47 Urban 10 8 SC 25 24 ST 4 5 Hindu 95 95 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; figures for women represent share of female electors in total electorate as per ECI; figures for Urban are from Census 2011 Provisional Population Totals; figures for share of SC, ST and Hindu in total population of Himachal Pradesh are from Census 2001. The fieldwork of the survey in Himachal Pradesh was coordinated by Prof. Ramesh K Chauhan (Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla). The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti-CSDS, Delhi which included Anuradha Singh, Dhananjai Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, K.A.Q.A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Maria Mathew, Preeti Singhgautam, Shreya Sarawgi, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. Prof. Suhas Palshikar gave his inputs and suggestions. Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS directed the survey. 2 Himachal Pradesh Post-poll 2012-Survey Findings DETAILS OF THE SURVEY SAMPLE Assembly Constituencies Valid Cumulativ Frequency Percent Percent e Percent Valid 01: Churah(SC) 78 3.3 3.3 3.3 04: Dalhausie 75 3.2 3.2 6.6 06: Nurpur 74 3.2 3.2 9.7 08: Fatehpur 69 3.0 3.0 12.7 10: Dehra 79 3.4 3.4 16.1 13: Jai Singhpur (SC) 66 2.8 2.8 18.9 15: Nagrota 62 2.7 2.7 21.6 17: Shahpur 78 3.3 3.3 24.9 20: Baijnath (SC) 80 3.4 3.4 28.4 22: Manali 65 2.8 2.8 31.2 24: Banjar 79 3.4 3.4 34.5 27: Sundernagar 85 3.6 3.6 38.2 29: Seraj 81 3.5 3.5 41.7 31: Jogindernagar 76 3.3 3.3 44.9 33: Mandi 76 3.3 3.3 48.2 36: Bhoranj (SC ) 66 2.8 2.8 51.0 38: Hamirpur 74 3.2 3.2 54.2 41: Chintpurni (SC) 66 2.8 2.8 57.0 43: Haroli 72 3.1 3.1 60.1 45: Kutlehar 72 3.1 3.1 63.2 46: Jhanduta (SC) 70 3.0 3.0 66.2 47: Ghumarwin 62 2.7 2.7 68.9 50: Arki 78 3.3 3.3 72.2 52: Doon 74 3.2 3.2 75.4 54: Kasauli (SC) 70 3.0 3.0 78.4 56: Nahan 72 3.1 3.1 81.5 58: Paonta Sahib 71 3.0 3.0 84.5 60: Chaupal 76 3.3 3.3 87.8 63: Shimla 64 2.7 2.7 90.6 65: Jubbal-Kotkhai 77 3.3 3.3 93.9 67: Rohru (SC) 80 3.4 3.4 97.3 68: Kinnaur (ST) 63 2.7 2.7 100.0 Total 2330 100.0 100.0 3 Himachal Pradesh Post-poll 2012-Survey Findings MARGINAL OF ALL QUESTIONS ASKED IN THE SURVEY Q1: While talking to people about the recent elections to the Vidhan Sabha, we find that some people were not able to vote. How about you - were you able to vote or not? Options N (%) 1: Could not vote 187 8.0 2: Voted 2134 91.6 8: No opinion 9 .4 Total 2330 100.0 a: (If Voted ) Whom did you vote for? Parties N (%) Valid (%) Valid 01: Congress 913 39.2 42.8 02: BJP 823 35.3 38.5 03: JD(U) 1 .0 .0 04: CPI 6 .2 .3 05: CPI(M) 13 .5 .6 06: BSP 11 .5 .5 07: NCP 1 .0 .0 08: HLP 50 2.2 2.4 09: TRMC 3 .1 .1 12: LJNSP 6 .2 .3 91: Independent 31 1.3 1.5 92: Independent 65 2.8 3.0 93: Independent 18 .8 .9 94: Independent 1 .0 .0 96: Independent 23 1.0 1.1 97: Independent 4 .2 .2 98: Don't know 166 7.1 7.8 Total 2134 91.6 100.0 Missing 99: Blank/Refused 196 8.4 Total 2330 100.0 Party voted for Assembly Election 2012 Parties N (%) Valid (%) Valid 1: Congress 913 39.2 42.8 2: BJP 823 35.3 38.5 3: HLP 50 2.2 2.4 4: Others 348 15.0 16.3 Total 2134 91.6 100.0 4 Himachal Pradesh Post-poll 2012-Survey Findings Parties N (%) Valid (%) Missing 9: Not voted 196 8.4 Total 2330 100.0 b: (If Not Voted ) What was the main reason due to which you could not vote in this election? Options N (%) Valid (%) Valid 0: Out of station 94 4.0 48.0 1: Not well 21 .9 10.7 2: No interest/did not feel like voting 8 .3 4.1 3: Prevented /Fear of violence 1 .0 .5 4: No identity card/ identity proof 2 .1 1.0 5: No good choice 3 .1 1.5 7: Others 11 .5 5.6 8: Can't say 56 2.4 28.6 Total 196 8.4 100.0 Missing 9: N.A. 2134 91.6 Total 2330 100.0 c: (If Voted ) When did you finally make up your mind about whom to vote for? Options N (%) Valid (%) Valid 1: On the day of voting 250 10.7 11.7 2: A day or two before voting 189 8.1 8.8 3: Earlier, during the campaign 481 20.6 22.5 4: Even before the campaign started 973 41.8 45.6 8: Can't say 241 10.3 11.3 Total 2134 91.6 100.0 Missing 9: N.A. 196 8.4 Total 2330 100.0 d: (If Voted ) Did the election officer correctly put the mark on your finger? Options N (%) Valid (%) Valid 1: Checked, but mark not found 88 3.8 4.1 2: Checked and mark found 1977 84.9 92.7 8: Could not check the mark 68 2.9 3.2 Total 2134 91.6 100.0 Missing 9: N.A. 196 8.4 Total 2330 100.0 Q2: (If Voted ) In deciding whom to vote, did you take anybody’s advice/were you guided by anyone? 5 Himachal Pradesh Post-poll 2012-Survey Findings Options N (%) Valid (%) Valid 1: No 1590 68.3 74.5 2: Yes 426 18.3 19.9 8: Can't say 118 5.1 5.5 Total 2134 91.6 100.0 Missing 9: N.A.