Seasonal Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia Climate Update Seasonal Rainfall and NDVI, 10th February 2011 Deyr 2010 This seasonal climate update, a joint effort of FSNAU, MARS-JRC, FEWS NET and SWALIM, is produced after every seasonal assessment (Gu and Deyr), to provide an overall view of the seasonal performance.The data and analyses in this publication are based on remote sensing (RFE and NDVI) and complimented by rain gauge data collected by SWALIM Highlights Map 1: Dec 2010 NDVI Difference from Long Term Mean Rainfall The Deyr season (October – December) was extremely dry in most parts of Somalia because of the prevailing La Niña event affecting the Horn of Africa. The failure of short rain season led to the lowest crop production in southern and central parts of the country since 1995. The dry conditions have also exacerbated the situation in key pastoral areas across the country. Observed rainfall indicates critically low recordings in most of the rainfall stations in South and Central during the entire season. However, a few areas in the North such as Borama, Qualenjeed, Elafweyn, Erigabo and Iskushuban stations recorded normal to above normal rainfall during the same period. ` this with the Northwest zone showing normal to above normal rains during this period and, in particular, Awdal and Galbeed regions. In the Northeast, however, the rains were below normal in most parts except in the Hawd livelihood zone of Nugal as well as parts of Iskushuban and Alula districts. The RFE also indicate critically low rains in most parts of central and southern Somalia Vegetation Conditions Following the poor Deyr rainfall performance, the rangeland condition (water, pasture and browse) remains ` Northeast. Compared to a long term mean, the Normalized Data Sources Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates that vegetation condition between October and December in Maps and graphs in this bulletin are produced from three sources: key pastoral areas of the South is in its worst condition in '&'*+-&/333*4 SPOT VEGETATION, while the rain gauge data is collected by FAO-SWALIM !"#` '7# #`"$# with MARS-JRC are utilise a combination of FAO-Africover and FAO-SWALIM land migration of livestock into the Shabelle and Juba riverine cover classes to derive RFE and NDVI summaries. For more information visit http:// areas as well as pockets of Bay, Mudug and Nugal regions mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/mars/About-us/FOODSEC where relatively better rains improved the vegetation in these areas. Field reports also indicate slightly better pasture conditions in most parts of Awdal and Galbeed regions in the Northwest and Alula district in Northeast. Technical and Managerial Support Funding Agencies Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia (FSNAU), P.O. Box 1230, Nairobi, Kenya. Tel: +254 722 - 202 146/ 733 - 616 881/ 20 4000500, Email: [email protected], Website: www.fsnau.org Seasonal Rainfall and NDVI Cummulative Rainfall Cummulative Rain Gauge Estimates (mm) (Oct-Dec, 2010) Data (mm) (Oct-Dec, 2010) Togdheer Pastoral (Savannah) Saanag Pastoral (Savannah) Source: NOAA Source: FAO-SWALIM Gedo Pastoral (Open Shrubs) Galgadud Pastoral (Herbaceous) Nugal Pastoral (Savannah) Hiran Agropastoral (Rainfed) Middle Shabelle Agropastoral (Rainfed) Lower Shabelle Riverine (Irrigated) Lower Shabelle Agropastoral (Rainfed) Bay Agropastoral (Rainfed) Bakool Agropastoral (Rainfed) *The CNDVI minimum represents the lowest value of NDVI recorded since 1999 2 Long term rainfall and NDVI trends for selected districts Agricultural Areas Agriculture Generally the 2010/11 Deyr season was extremely poor with negative "` reduced in riverine areas of southern regions while there is total crop failure in the agro pastoral livelihoods of southern and central Somalia. The FSNAU post Deyr 2010/11assessment results indicate the lowest cereal production in the South since Deyr 1995 (19% of Deyr Post War Average). In the Northwest however, the combination of the Hays rains compounded with the good Karan rains resulted in above normal cereal production especially in agropastoral areas of Northwest (Awdal, W.Galbeed and Togdheer) Source: SWALIM/AFRICOVER Selected districts with good crop production Hargeisa Agropastoral Borama Agropastoral (Irrigated) Selected districts with poor crop production Jamame Riverine Afmadow Agropastoral Buloburti Agropastoral Aden Yabal Agropastoral Taleh Pastoral (Savannah) 3 Long term rainfall and NDVI trends for selected districts Pastoral Areas Pasture Pasture conditions are generally very poor throughout Somalia with the exception of Awdal and Galbeed regions of Northwest and Alula district in Northeast. In the southern regions, pockets in the agro-pastoral areas of Bay, and Shabelle as well as the riverine areas of Juba and Shabelle yielded average pasture. As a result, abnormal livestock migration have been experienced into these areas. Livestock body conditions have been deteriorating due to lack of pasture and water with livestock deaths reported in the Coastal Deeh and Hiran region. Source: FAO-AFRICOVER Selected districts with good pasture conditions Afmadow Savannah Alula Open shrubs Borama Herbaceous Hargeisa Selected districts with poor pasture conditions Hudun Savannah Brutinle Herbaceous Taleh Pastoral (Savannah) For more information visit http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/ and ?@@KKK""@@@!XZ[" 4.