COUNTRY REPORT Namibia Swaziland The full publishing schedule for Country Reports is now available on our website at http://www.eiu.com/schedule April 2000 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.20) 7499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can now be viewed by subscribing online at http://store.eiu.com/brdes.html Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, on-line databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office London: Jan Frost Tel: (44.20) 7830 1183 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 New York: Alexander Bateman Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181 Hong Kong: Amy Ha Tel: (852) 2802 7288/2585 3888 Fax: (852) 2802 7720/7638 Copyright © 2000 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1356-4218 Symbols in tables “n/a” means not available; “-” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Contents 3 Summary Namibia 5 Political structure 6 Economic structure 6 Annual indicators 7 Quarterly indicators 8 Outlook for 2000-01 8 Political outlook 9 Economic policy 10 Economic forecast 13 The political scene 17 Economic policy 19 The domestic economy 19 Economic trends 20 Mining 21 Industry 22 Agriculture & fishing 23 Infrastructure 23 Foreign trade and payments Swaziland 25 Political structure 26 Economic structure 26 Annual indicators 27 Quarterly indicators 28 Outlook for 2000-01 29 The political scene 31 Economic policy and the economy List of tables 11 Namibia: forecast summary 17 Namibia: government finances, 1999/2000 18 Namibia: defence spending 19 Namibia: private-sector credit 21 Namibia: uranium oxide production 24 Namibia: external debt 32 Swaziland: budget 33 Swaziland: recurrent expenditure by sector, 2000/01 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2000 EIU Country Report April 2000 2 List of figures 13 Namibia: gross domestic product 13 Namibia: real exchange rates 19 Namibia: inflation, 1999 23 Namibia: foreign reserves, 1999 32 Swaziland: recurrent expenditure, 2000/01 33 Swaziland: revenue, 2000/01 34 Swaziland: migrant labour in South African mines EIU Country Report April 2000 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2000 3 March 31st 2000 Summary April 2000 Namibia Outlook for 2000-01 In the short term the political dominance of President Sam Nujoma and the ruling SWAPO will mean continuity in policy. Yet there are signs that the CoD may become a credible party of opposition. Instability along the northern border appears set to continue, as the government has reaffirmed its support for the Angolan government and will allow Angolan forces to attack UNITA from Namibian soil. Government policy will continue to focus on employment creation, although tighter budgets are expected in 2000/01 and 2001/02. Higher production of fish and offshore diamonds will increase the rate of growth of real GDP to 4.5% in 2000 and 5% in 2001. Inflation is expected to fall marginally, to an average of 7.5% in 2000, as Namibia imports lower South African inflation. The Namibia dollar will remain at par with the rand, and rebound in the latter half of the year to produce an average rate of N$6.30:US$1 in 2000, before slipping to N$6.50:US$1 in 2001. The trade deficit will narrow in 2000, but lower tourism receipts will shrink the current- account surplus to $170m from an estimated $243m in 1999. In 2001 the current-account surplus will widen to $223m as an improved trade surplus combines with a recovery in tourism. The political scene Angolan troops have been deployed on Namibian territory, encouraging attacks by UNITA and creating instability. Tourism has been badly affected, and more Caprivians have fled to Botswana. Namibia has lost its case against Botswana over Kasikili island. President Nujoma has been sworn in for a third term, but there is not yet an official opposition. Economic policy Higher military costs have driven up the 1999/2000 additional budget. VAT is to be introduced in October. Internal debt has been rising. The domestic economy • Inflation has continued to fall, but private credit is on the rise. • Offshore diamond production appears to have risen sharply. Uranium output has fallen. Tsumeb may soon be out of liquidation, allowing production to start again by mid-2001. • Rains have caused flooding and damage to crops in the south, most severely affecting ostrich farming. • Walvis Bay is being deepened to accommodate larger vessels. Foreign trade and Sales of diamond stockpiles have boosted exports in 1999 and allowed foreign payments reserve levels to grow. Foreign debt has continued to grow modestly, but debt- service obligations remain well under control. © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2000 EIU Country Report April 2000 4 Swaziland Outlook for 2000-01 King Mswati III has set a November deadline for the constitutional review commission, but it still remains unclear what he expects to be delivered on that date. The frustration of progressive forces at the lack of progress on reform is unlikely to boil over into unrest. The backlog of legislation is likely to be reduced in 2000. Swaziland will need to turn to new sources of revenue as SACU receipts diminish, but this process will not begin until 2003. Real GDP growth in 2000 is expected to be lower than last year’s estimate of 3.1%. Prospects are better for 2001, depending upon weather, as the South African economy recovers. Prices may come under short-term pressure as heavy rains lead to temporary food shortages, but inflation should remain under control in 2000-01. The political scene King Mswati has called on the government to perform better in 2000, and has set another date for the constitutional review commission’s report. A royal- owned newspaper has been closed under controversial circumstances. Economic policy and the The real rate of GDP growth in 1998 has been revised upwards to 2.7%. A new economy budget presented to parliament projects a larger budget deficit. Personnel costs have continued to take the lion’s share of public expenditure. Unemployment has risen. Heavy rains have caused severe damage. Several new investment projects have been announced. Editor: Todd Moss All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Next report: Full schedule on www/eiu.com/schedule EIU Country Report April 2000 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2000 Namibia 5 Namibia Political structure Official name Republic of Namibia Form of state Unitary republic Legal system Based on the constitution of 1990 and Roman-Dutch law National legislature Bicameral; National Assembly, with 72 members elected by universal suffrage and serving a six-year term; National Council, established in 1993, with limited powers of review and 26 members nominated by 13 regional councils for a five-year term National elections December 1999 (legislative and presidential); next elections due in 2004 Head of state President, currently Sam Nujoma, elected by universal suffrage. A constitutional amendment allowed Mr Nujoma to stand for a third presidential term in 1999 National government President and his appointed cabinet; last reshuffle March 2000 Main political parties South West African Peoples’ Organisation (SWAPO), the ruling party; Congress of Democrats (CoD); Democratic Turnhalle Alliance of Namibia (DTA); United Democratic Front (UDF); Democratic Coalition of Namibia (DCN); South West African National Union (SWANU) Prime minister Hage Geingob Key ministers Agriculture, water & rural development Helmut Angula Basic education & culture John Mutorwa Defence Erikki Nghimtina Environment & tourism Philemon Malima Finance Nangolo Mbumba Fisheries & marine resources Abrahim Iyambo Foreign affairs & information Theo-Ben Gurirab Health & social services Libertina