0 | P a g e CONTENTS PAGE DEFINITIONS 2 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 3 GLOBAL TOURISM OVERVIEW 4 KEY GLOBAL TOURISM DEVELOPMENTS 5 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 6 OVERVIEW OF TOURISM PERFORMANCE IN ZIMBABWE 7 - 11 TOURISM ECONOMIC INDICATORS (SUMMARY) 12 – 14 ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVALS 15 - 21 Tourist Arrivals Market Share by Region: 2018/2017 16 Foreign Tourist Arrivals Trend: 1999 – 2018 17 Tourist Arrivals: Africa vs Overseas 2014 -2018 18 Tourist Arrivals from Overseas: 2018/ 2017 19 Tourist Arrivals from Mainland Africa: 2018/2017 21 ANALYSIS OF TOURIST ARRIVALS BY SOURCE MARKET: 2015/2014 22 - 34 Top 10 Overseas Markets 29 Top 10 African Markets 30 Purpose of Visit 31 Mode of Transport 33 AIRLINE STATISTICS 35 – 37 Market Share by Airline (table) 36 Market Share by Airline (graph) 37 ACCOMMODATION UTILIZATION STATISTICS: 2015/2014 38 - 42 Average Hotel Room Occupancy 2018/16 Harare, Bulawayo & Victoria Falls 39 Average Room Occupancy Rates by Region 41 Average Bed Occupancy Rates by Region 42 TOURISM RECEIPTS 43 – 44 NATIONAL PARKS & WILDLIFE STATISTICS - 2017 46 - 48 Tourist Arrivals by National Park 46 Clientele Composition – Top 10 National Parks 47 Arrivals Market Share – Top 10 National Parks 47 NATIONAL MUSEUMS & MONUMENT STATISTICS RECEIPTS 49 - 50 DOMESTIC TOURISM STATISTICS 51 CONCLUSION 54 1 | P a g e DEFINITIONS For reasons of comparability and consistency the Zimbabwe Tourism Authority uses International definitions as given by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Some of the definitions used are: Tourist: is a traveler who takes an overnight trip outside his/her usual environment, for less than a year, for any main purpose (business, leisure or other personal purpose) other than to be employed by a resident entity in the country or place visited. Same–day Visitor: A visitor who does not spend a night in a collective or private accommodation in the country visited. Arrivals: All data refer to arrivals and not actual number of people traveling. One person visiting the same country several times during the year is counted each time as a new arrival. Likewise, the same person visiting several countries during the same trip is counted each time as a new arrival. ABBREVIATIONS & ACRONYMS USED DRC – Democratic Republic of Congo FDI – Foreign Direct Investment GDP – Gross Domestic Product IMF - International Monetary Fund MICE – Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions SADC - Southern African Development Community TSA – Tourism Satellite Account UAE – United Arab Emirates UK – United Kingdom UNWTO – Untitled Nations World Tourism Organization USA – United States of America VES – Visitor Exit Survey VFR – Visiting Friends and Relatives WTTC – World Travel and Tourism Council ZTA – Zimbabwe Tourism Authority 2 | P a g e Global Economic Overview Fig 1: Global Economic Growth 2018 - 2020 Source: IMF Global Outlook To a very reasonable extent, the propensity of tourists to travel is determined by the economic environment as it affects their disposable income hence expenditure. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy continues to firm up and is estimated to have grown by 3.7 percent in 2018. Global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are expected at 3.5 and 3.6 percent respectively. 3 | P a g e Global Tourism Overview International Tourist Arrivals Fig 2: Global Tourist Arrivals by Region International Tourism Indicators 2018 4 | P a g e Key Global Tourism Developments Growth in Preference for Mobile Payment by the Chinese Market Chinese outbound tourism continues to grow with arrivals from this market estimated to have reached over 162 million in 2018 up by about 24% from 131 million in 2017. With this growth Chinese tourists are charting new frontiers in global mobile payments. According to the 2018 Trends for Mobile Payment in Chinese Outbound Tourism report by Nielsen, mobile payment transactions by Chinese tourists surpassed the percentage paid with cash and credit cards for the first time. Nearly 70 per cent of Chinese tourists paid with their mobile phones using platforms like WeChat Pay and Alipay while abroad. With the rise in preference for mobile payment among the Chinese, it is prudent for operators to position themselves and allow payment using mobile platforms in order to maximize possible gains from this lucrative market as the trend is set to increase further according to the report. Impacts of Political Uncertainity on UK Outbound Tourism Political uncertainty in Europe over Brexit remains with potential consequences of further impacting on the British outbound travel and expenditure as the pound suffers from the volatility. British holidaymakers are opting to stay at home on ‘staycations’, with outbound tourist departures from the UK growing by only 2.5%. This development might continue to impact on Zimbabwe which currently faces a 2% fall in arrivals from the UK which is the destination’s second largest source market. 5 | P a g e National Economic Overview In spite of the ongoing economic challenges including Cash and forex Growth: shortages, the overall economic performance in 2018 is estimated to have registered a modest growth of 3.5%. According to the Finance 3.5% Ministry, this growth was largely driven by the agricultural sector. Fig 3: Real GDP Growth (%) Projected Inflation The annual inflation rate closed at 42% in December 2018 and is projected to stabilize going into 2019 according to the Ministry of Finance. Although inflation may be considered healthy for economic growth, the current double digit inflation has negatively impacted on the tourism industry pricing. 6 | P a g e Overview Performance of Tourism in Zimbabwe Tourist Arrivals Tourist arrivals into Zimbabwe reached 2,579,974 in 2018, Growth: 6% up from 2,422,930 recorded in 2017. The growth in arrivals was driven by the notable increases from all source 6% Arrivals: regions with the exception of the Americas 2,579,974 The overal performance was quite encouraging, with notable positive performance in all the traditional overseas markets. In fact, there was an overal positive performance in the overseas market having risen by 9% from 474,4217 in 2017 to 515,440 in 2018. Performance by Source Region Tourist Arrivals by Source Region 2018/17 Source Regions 2018 2017 Change Africa 2,064,534 1,948,509 6% America 120,313 121,043 -1% Asia 112,694 91,435 23% Europe 232,233 218,140 6% Middle East 7,798 7,537 3% Oceania 42,402 36,266 17% Grand Total. 2,579,974 2,422,930 6% 7 | P a g e Fig 4: Regional Market shares 2018 2017 Fig 5: The Overseas Arrival Trend, 1999 - 2018 Fig 5 above shows a steady growth trend for the overseas market from 2012 until 2016. But since 2017 there has been a sharp increase in tourist arrivals from overseas markets (49%).This shows that the world is generally warming up to Zimbabwe as evidenced by the various positive destination reviews in 2018. 8 | P a g e Receipts In line with the growth in tourist arrivals the tourism sector is estimated to have generated $1.051 billion foreign receipts into the economy, which is a 15% growth from $918 million in 2017. Domestic Tourism is also estimated to have generated about $335 million during the period under review consolidating the overall tourism earnings to $1.386 billion Accommodation Utilization Average Hotel Room Occupancy 2018/17 Harare, Bulawayo & Victoria Falls The regions of Harare, Bulawayo and Victoria Falls maintained the majority share in terms of room and bed capacity in the country making up 64% of the total room and bed capacity. All of the major regions experienced growth in average room occupancies during the period under review. Overall the national average hotel room occupancy rate rose by 5 percentage points from 48% to 53% in 2018. 9 | P a g e Some Key Events Impacted Tourism in Zimbabwe Visa Regime Changes In February 2018 the Department of Immigration announced a new visa regime which saw citizens from 28 countries being allowed to obtain visas on arrival. Of major interest to tourism were 2 countries; India, and Ethiopia. Tourist arrivals from these countries are expected to increase going forward. Developments in the Aviation Sector In a move that was welcomed greatly by the tourism industry, Rwanda Air launched the Cape Town – Harare Kigali route. This did not only improve regional connectivity but also international connectivity considering that Cape Town is also a gateway from many international tourism markets. 10 | P a g e 2018 Harmonized Elections Zimbabwe carried out the 2018 Harmonized Elections in July 2018. The elections were largely viewed as peaceful especially in the pre- election period. This is in spite of the shooting incidence that occurred on the 1st of August. Historically election years in the country were characterized by a fall in tourist arrivals a trend which was defied in 2018 as arrivals rose. Persistent Liquidity Crisis, Forex and Fuel Shortages The liquidity crunch and forex shortages that hit the country since Mid-2016 continued to haunt the country’s economy and tourism in 2018. The challenges were also coupled with fuel shortages affecting travel within the destination. These challenges continued to impact negatively on the image of the country. To an extent the country’s largest regional tourism source market, South Africa was affected as it is traditionally characterized by self-driving tourists 11 | P a g e TOURISM ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN SUMMARY 12 | P a g e 13 | P a g e 14 | P a g e ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVALS 15 | P a g e Market Shares by Region – 2018 Europe 9% Asia 4% Middle East <1% Americas 5% Africa 80% Oceania 2% The bulk of arrivals to Zimbabwe are intra-regional And 41% of these are in transit 16 | P a g e Foreign Tourist Arrivals Trend: 1999 – 2018 17 | P a g e Tourist Arrivals: Africa vs Overseas 2014 -2018 Generally there was a steady growth trend for the overseas markets until 2016.