NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE 2003 New South Wales Election - Preliminary Analysis by Antony Green Background Paper No 4/03 RELATED PUBLICATIONS • Antony Green, New South Wales Election 1999, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No 4/99 • Antony Green, Prospects for the 2003 Legislative Council Election, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No 3/03 ISSN 1325-5142 ISBN 0 7313 1734 3 May 2003 © 2003 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, with the prior written consent from the Librarian, New South Wales Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the New South Wales Parliamentary Library. NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE David Clune (MA, PhD, Dip Lib), Manager.............................................. (02) 9230 2484 Gareth Griffith (BSc (Econ) (Hons), LLB (Hons), PhD), Senior Research Officer, Politics and Government / Law ......................... (02) 9230 2356 Talina Drabsch (BA, LLB (Hons)), Research Officer, Law....................... (02) 9230 2768 Rowena Johns (BA (Hons), LLB), Research Officer, Law........................ (02) 9230 2003 Roza Lozusic (BA, LLB), Research Officer, Law ..................................... (02) 9230 3085 Stewart Smith (BSc (Hons), MELGL), Research Officer, Environment ... (02) 9230 2798 John Wilkinson (BA (Hons), MA), Research Officer, Economics............ (02) 9230 2006 Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/WEB_FEED/PHWebContent.nsf/PHPages/LibraryPublication 2003 NEW SOUTH WALES ELECTION (Preliminary Analysis) CONTENTS Introduction ................................................................................................... 1 Legislative Assembly Election Summary of Legislative Assembly Results........................................... 3 Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral Division.............................. 8 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results.......................................... 31 Regional Summaries .......................................................................... 36 By-elections 1999 - 2003.................................................................... 40 Legislative Council Election Summary of Legislative Council Result .............................................. 41 Detail of Legislative Council Primary Votes........................................ 42 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting MP .... 'Ghost' candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election. Party Abbreviations (blank) Non-Affiliated Candidates AFI Australians Against Further Immigration ALP Labor Party CDP Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) DEM Australian Democrats FP Fishing Party FWD Four Wheel Drive Party HRP Horse Riders Party IND Independents GRN The Greens LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party NPP No Privatisation Peoples Party ONP One Nation NSW OTH Others RLS Reform the Legal System SA Socialist Alliance SOS Save Our Suburbs SP Shooters Party UNI Unity Important Dates Issue of Writs Friday 28 February 2003 Close of Rolls Friday 28 February 2003, 6pm Close of Nominations Thursday 6 March 2003, Noon How to vote registration Thursday 13 March 2003, 6pm Close of Postal Vote applications Wednesday 19 March 2003 Polling Day Saturday 22 March 2003 Return of Writ Tuesday, 29 April 2003 NSW Election 2003 INTRODUCTION This paper has been prepared as a preliminary analysis of the results of the 2003 New South Wales election. It contains details of voting for all Legislative Assembly districts, excluding Londonderry, where a supplementary election will be conducted on 31 May following the death of the sitting MP and Labor candidate Mr Jim Anderson. The paper also includes details of the primary votes for the Legislative Council. A final version of this paper will be prepared after the Londonderry poll when more information on two- party preferred votes and distribution of preferences in both houses becomes available. For each Legislative Assembly electorate, full details of primary and two-candidate preferred votes are provided. The format and calculations used in the electorate results are as follows. First Count: The votes shown for each candidate are the total primary votes received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the previous election from the percentage received at the current election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the previous election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by "....") have been included representing candidates not contesting the current election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. All votes that did not indicate a preference to the two remaining candidates are included in the total listed as Exhausted. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote by the votes remaining in the count, that is the formal vote minus the exhausted vote. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the final candidates from the previous election. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from the previous election (e.g. Tamworth), ghost candidates appear and more than two swing figures are shown. Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred results To win an electorate, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote after the distribution of preferences. The distribution of preferences is performed by successively excluding candidates with the lowest primary vote and distributing that candidate’s votes as preferences to other candidates remaining in the count. At the end of the count, the vote for the two final candidates is referred to as the 'two-candidate preferred vote'. In most electorates, this will be the same as the 'two-party preferred vote’, representing the final distribution of preferences between candidates representing the Labor Party, and the Liberal and National Party Coalition. However, there were 13 electorates at the 2003 New South Wales election that did not finish with two-party preferred counts. Five finished as National/Independent contests (Coffs Harbour, Dubbo, Northern Tablelands, Port Macquarie, Tamworth), three as Liberal/Independent contests (Albury, Manly, Willoughby), three as Labor/Green contests (Keira, Marrickville, Port Jackson) and two others as Labor/Independent finishes (Bligh, Wollongong). Two-party preferred counts are not available for these electorates. In the past, two-preferred party counts have been made available at a later date. By-Elections and Sitting MP Indicators By-elections have been ignored in preparing the results for each electorate, and all swings are shown compared to the results of the 1999 election. Details of the four by-elections conducted between 1999 and 2003 can be found on page 40. An asterisk "*" is used to indicate any candidate who was a sitting Legislative Assembly MP. In Port Macquarie, Independent MP Rob Oakeshott is shown as the sitting MP despite originally being elected for the National Party. In Tamworth, the National Party’s John Cull won the seat at a by- election on 8 December 2001 and is shown as the sitting MP. 1 NSW Election 2003 Note that in both seats, swings are measured against votes for parties and candidates as they contested the 1999 election. In Port Macquarie, this means Mr Oakeshott’s 1999 vote is shown as the vote for the National Party, while he is shown as having no historical vote. In Tamworth, results of the by-election have been ignored. Australian Labor Party and Country Labor At the 2003 election, 22 Labor Party candidates nominated as Country Labor. In this publication, this distinction has been ignored, and all candidates are shown as representing Labor or the ALP. When the final version of this publication is prepared, more detailed analysis of the two parties will be provided. Disclaimer All results are based on preliminary details made available by the NSW State Electoral Office. However, responsibility for all calculations and omissions is taken by the author. Note that due to rounding errors, some tables do not add to exactly 100%. Acknowledgements My thanks to the NSW Electoral Commissioner, Mr John Wasson, for all his assistance in providing the results of the state election. My particular thanks go to Ms Monica Floyd and Mr Terry Jessop of the State Electoral Office, and Mr Ian Brightwell of Hansen Technologies for their assistance in providing election results in computer readable format. 2 NSW Election 2003 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY STATE-WIDE TOTALS ROLL 4 272 104 Candi- Seats Party dates Won Change Votes % Vote Swing Labor Party / Country Labor 92 55 .. 1 613 734 42.59 +0.38 Liberal Party 71 20 .. 944 888 24.94 +0.12 National Party 21 12 -1 368 004 9.71 +0.84 The Greens 92 .. .. 312 982 8.26 +4.38 Independent 93 6 +1 304 414 8.03 +2.92 Christian Democrats 51 .. .. 64 083 1.69 +0.20 Unity 51 .. .. 49 597 1.31 +0.25 One Nation 55 .. .. 47 805