Report No. 73074-EG Public Disclosure Authorized THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT FOR BETTER OR FOR WORSE : AIR POLLUTION IN GREATER CAIRO Public Disclosure Authorized A SECTOR NOTE APRIL 2013 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, http://www.copyright.com/. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail [email protected]. The Arab Republic of Egypt For Better or for Worse: Air Pollution in Greater Cairo. A Sector Note ACRONYMS AFD Agence Française de Développement AAQ Ambient Air Quality CAIP Cairo Air Improvement Project CAPMAS Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics CDM Clean Development Mechanism CEA Country Environmental Analysis CID Central Inspection Department CMB Chemical Mass Balance CNG compressed natural gas COED cost assessment of environmental degradation DALY Disability Adjusted Life Year DSS-IPC Decision Support System for Industrial Pollution Control EEA European Environment Agency EEAA Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency EER Energy Environmental Review EIB European Investment Bank EMEP Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) EPAP II Second Egypt Pollution Abatement Project GCMA Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gases GIS Geographic Information System JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LE Egyptian pound LRTAP Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution MOHP Ministry of Health and Population MSEA Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs NOx Nitrogen Oxides NPV Net Present Value O3 Ozone Pb Lead PM or PMx Particulate matter (regardless of size) PM 10 Particulate matter of 10 micrometers PM 2.5 Particulate matter of 2.5 micrometers ppm Parts per million REIMP Regional Environmental Information Management Project SAS Source attribution study SMEs Small and medium enterprises SOx Sulfur Oxides SWM solid waste management USAID United States Agency for International Development VET Vehicle emission testing VSL Value of Statistical Life WHO World Health Organization WTE waste to energy or waste-to-energy Vice President: Inger Andersen Country Manager/Director: Hartwig Schafer Sector Director: Junaid Ahmad Sector Manager: Charles Cormier Task Team Leader: Maged M. Hamed The Arab Republic of Egypt For Better Or For Worse: Air Pollution In Greater Cairo. A Sector Note Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 11 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 19 1.1 Background .................................................................................................................................... 19 1.2 Efforts of the Government of Egypt to Improve Air Quality......................................................... 20 1.3 Purpose of the Study ...................................................................................................................... 21 1.4 The World Bank as a Partner in Environmental Management in Egypt ........................................ 21 1.5 Structure of the Report ................................................................................................................... 22 2 Air Quality in Greater Cairo ............................................................................................................... 24 2.1 Geographical Scope: The GCMA .................................................................................................. 24 2.2 Ambient Air Quality Standards ..................................................................................................... 25 2.3 Criteria Pollutant Monitoring in the GCMA .................................................................................. 25 2.4 Major sources of air pollution in the GCMA ................................................................................. 27 2.4.1 Industrial Pollution ................................................................................................................ 27 2.4.2 Transport ............................................................................................................................... 27 2.4.3 Energy ................................................................................................................................... 28 2.4.4 Waste ..................................................................................................................................... 29 2.5 The Policies and the Institutional and Legal Framework on Air Quality ...................................... 30 2.5.1 Policies .................................................................................................................................. 30 2.5.2 Institutional Framework ........................................................................................................ 33 2.5.3 Legal Framework .................................................................................................................. 36 2.6 Comparison with Other Cities in the World and in the Middle East and North Africa ................. 39 3 Sources of Air Pollution in the GCMA: Source Attribution Study..................................................... 43 3.1 Sample Locations and Rationale .................................................................................................... 43 3.2 Methodology for Source Attribution ............................................................................................. 44 3.3 Limitations of the Source Attribution Study .................................................................................. 44 3.4 Summary of the SAS Results ......................................................................................................... 45 4 Emission Inventory and Dispersion Modeling of Air Pollutants in the GCMA ................................. 48 4.1 Objectives and Scope ..................................................................................................................... 48 4.2 Methodology .................................................................................................................................. 49 4.4 Emission Predictions ...................................................................................................................... 53 4.5 Baseline Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 53 4.6 Mitigation Scenarios ...................................................................................................................... 53 4.8 Calculated Concentrations versus Monitoring ............................................................................... 62 5 Cost Assessment of Air Quality Degradation ..................................................................................... 64 5.1 Background .................................................................................................................................... 64 5.2 Methodology .................................................................................................................................. 64 5.2.1 World Bank 2002 Degradation Cost and Current Analysis Method Comparison ................ 65 5.2.2 The Burden of Air Pollution and the Cost of Degradation .................................................... 66 5.2.3 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 70 6 Similar Experiences in Other Megacities ............................................................................................ 71 6.1 Bangkok (Thailand) ....................................................................................................................... 71 6.2 Beijing (China) .............................................................................................................................. 72 6.3 Jakarta (Indonesia) ......................................................................................................................... 72 6.4 Los Angeles (USA) ........................................................................................................................ 72 6.5 Manila (Philippines)....................................................................................................................... 73 6.6 Mexico City (Mexico)...................................................................................................................