volume 9 volume 9 number 2 number 2 June 2006 Economic Bulletin Economic Bulletin June 2006 E C O N O M J Iu Cn e B U L L E T I N 2 0 0 6 B a n k o f A l b a n i a PB Bank of Albania Bank of Albania volume 9 volume 9 number 2 number 2 June 2006 Economic Bulletin Economic Bulletin June 2006 If you use data from this publication, you are requested to cite the source. Published by: Bank of Albania, Sheshi “Skënderbej”, Nr.1, Tirana, Albania Tel.: 355-4-222230; 235568; 235569 Fax.: 355-4-223558 E-mail: [email protected] www.bankofalbania.org Printed by: Bank of Albania Printing House Printed in: 400 copies 2 Bank of Albania Bank of Albania volume 9 volume 9 number 2 number 2 June 2006 Economic Bulletin Economic Bulletin June 2006 C O N T E N T S Monetary Policy Report on the first semester of 2006, July 2006 7 I Governor’s Speech 7 II Economic developments over the first semester 0 III Inflation performance 2 IV Monetary developments and financial markets 27 V Economic performance over 2006 7 Statistical Annex 40 External sector developments of the Albanian economy over the first quarter 2006 46 I Current account 46 II Capital and financial account 48 Speech by Ardian Fullani, the Governor of the Bank of Albania at the Round Table Discussions on the Establishment of the Credit Information Bureau. Hotel “Tirana International”, 28 April 2006 5 Speech by Ardian Fullani, the Governor of the Bank of Albania Bank of Albania’s statement at the conclusion of IMF Article IV Mission. Ministry of Finance, May 2006 5 Speech by Ardian Fullani, the Governor of the Bank of Albania at the Regional Technical Seminar “Financial Policy Issues of Deposit Insurance Schemes in South-East Europe”. Hotel “Rogner Europapark”, 0 May 2006 55 Speech by Ardian Fullani, the Governor of the Bank of Albania at the conference - Economic Governance in the European Union - organized by the Italian Embassy in Tirana. 5 June 2006 58 The evaluation of foreign direct investment in Eastern Europe developing countries: The case of Albania 60 Bank of Albania’s role in European Integration 75 Foreign direct investment in Albania (fiscal year 2004) 88 Survey on Crediting and Depositing Activity for January-February 2006 06 Bank of Albania news over April-June 2006 9 Legal events over April-June 2006 22 Bank of Albania management, 0 June 2006 27 List of all entities licensed by the Bank of Albania 28 Banks and branches of foreign banks 28 Non-bank institutions Financial institutions not licensed by the Bank of Albania to conduct their activities according to the Supervisory Council Decision No. 26, dated 29.0.2000 “On the exemption of some institutions from applying the provisions of Law No.865, dated 02.07.998 “On banks in the Republic of Albania” Foreign exchange bureaus 4 Unions of savings and credit associations 40 Representative offices of foreign banks 4 2 Bank of Albania Bank of Albania volume 9 volume 9 number 2 number 2 June 2006 Economic Bulletin Economic Bulletin June 2006 T A B L E S Monetary Policy Report on the first semester of 2006, July 2006 Table Some main economic indicators in annual terms (in percentage) Table 2 Oil demand and supply (in million/barrel per day) Table Performance of some domestic demand indicators 4 Table 4 Projection of agricultural production by branches (in percentage) 4 Table 5 Performance of industry sector for the first quarter of 2006 (in percentage) 5 Table 6 Main indicators of electricity balance sheet (in MWh) 6 Table 7 Labour market indicators (in thousand people) 7 Table 8 Growth rates of main fiscal indicators (in percentage) 8 Table 9 Tax and customs revenues (in billions of ALL – progressive data) 9 Table 0 Composition of current expenditures (in millions of ALL) 20 Table Balance of payments, Q 2005 – Q 2006 (in millions of EUR) 22 Table 2 Annual inflation rate (in percentage) 2 Table Annual inflation of “Foodstuffs and non-alcoholic beverages” group (in the country and abroad) and the contribution of this group to total inflation 24 Table 4 Annual inflation rate and contribution of “Rent, water, fuels, energy” group to total inflation 25 Table 5 Realization of the Bank of Albania quantitative objectives 28 Table 6 Performance of monetary indicators in May (in billions of ALL) Table 7 Outstanding credit indicators (as a share to total) 4 Table 8 Credit to economy by branches 4 Table 9 Performance of new credit over the years (as a share to total) 4 Table 20 The lowest historical levels of interest rates in ALL 5 Table 2 Difference between Treasury bills interest rates of 2-month and -month maturity 5 Table 22 Main macroeconomic indicators 7 Statistical Annex Table Annual inflation rate (in percentage) 4 Table 2 Contribution of basket constituent groups to total inflation 4 Table Performance of monetary indicators (in billions of ALL) 4 Table 4 Performance of NFA indicators by main groups (in millions of USD) 42 Table 5 Performance of NCG indicators by main groups 42 Table 6 Outstanding credit indicators (as a percentage to total) 42 Table 7 Performance of credit for the main branches of economy 42 Table 8 New credit indicators (as a share to total) 42 Table 9 Interest rates at the end of the month and their change compared to previous periods (in percentage points) 4 Table 0 Interest rates and their change in lek deposits and credit market (in percentage points) 4 Table Interest rates of deposits in foreign currency (in percentage points) 4 Table 2 Interest rate spread of deposit – credit in lek and in foreign currency 44 External sector developments of the Albanian economy over the first quarter 2006 Table Balance of payments (in billions of Eur) 49 Foreign direct investment in Albania (fiscal year 2004) Table Foreign direct investment by investing country 9 Table 2 Concentration of the labour force 9 Table Distribution of enterprises by sectors (NACE Rev. .) 94 Table 4 Distribution of foreign capital stock by sectors (NACE Rev .) (in percentage) 96 Table 5 Structure of investment over the fiscal year 200 97 Table 6 Structural distribution of investment over the fiscal year 2004 by sectors of economy 97 Annex Table Foreign investment in Albania - by statistical region 99 Table 2 No. of Albanian enterprises with foreign direct investment (direct affiliation) - by activity, end-year 2004 00 Table Foreign direct investment in Albania by investing country 200 - 2004. End-year stock in 000 Lekë 0 Table 4 Foreign direct investment in Albania - by activity 200 - 2004. End-year stock in 000 Lekë 02 4 Bank of Albania Bank of Albania 5 volume 9 volume 9 number 2 number 2 June 2006 Economic Bulletin Economic Bulletin June 2006 C H A R T S Monetary Policy Report on the first semester of 2006, July 2006 Chart Annual inflation rates in Eurozone and USA (in percentage) Chart 2 Core interest rates (in percentage) Chart Daily performance of USD/EUR exchange rate 2 Chart 4 Crude oil world prices (in USD per barrel) Chart 5 Contribution of sectors to the sales of economy (in percentage points) Chart 6 Quarterly change of sales in ”Trade, hotels and restaurants” sector (in percentage) 4 Chart 7 Performance of agricultural production and forecast for growth over 2006 5 Chart 8 Performance of sales in construction sector 6 Chart 9 Annual change of construction cost index 6 Chart 0 Performance of sales in transportation sector 7 Chart Unemployment rate over the last five years (in percentage) 8 Chart 2 Structure of budget revenues (in millions of ALL) 9 Chart Structure of budget expenditures (in millions of ALL) 20 Chart 4 Budget deficit by financing resources (in millions of ALL) 20 Chart 5 Performance of current account items, QI 2005 – QI 2006 (in millions of EUR) 2 Chart 6 Foreign trade balance, Q 2005 – Q 2006 (in millions of EUR) 2 Chart 7 Performance of revenues, Q 2005 – Q 2006 (in millions of EUR) 2 Chart 8 Performance of annual inflation (in percentage) 2 Chart 9 Contribution of main groups to CPI basket (in percentage points) 24 Chart 20 Annual inflation of four main groups in the CPI basket (in percentage points) 25 Chart 2 Developments in monetary indicators 26 Chart 22 Developments in budget expenditures 26 Chart 2 Oil price annual changes and the exchange rate of Lek against the US dollar (right hand) 27 Chart 24 Performance of consumer and production prices 27 Chart 25 Core interest rate performance (in percentage) 27 Chart 26 Annual growth of M, M2, deposits in Lek and in foreign currency 29 Chart 27 Ratio of currency outside banks to M and of deposits in foreign currency to M (right scale) 29 Chart 28 Deposits’ interest rates by currency 0 Chart 29 Difference between interest rates in Lek and in foreign currency and deposits’ foreign currency structure 0 Chart 0 Net foreign assets of the banking system (in millions of USD) Chart Budget deficit financing (in billions of ALL) 2 Chart 2 Performance of credit ratio to M and GDP (left scale) and outstanding credit annual growth rate (right scale) 2 Chart Credit annual growth rates Chart 4 Treasury bills yield 5 Chart 5 Interbank market interest rates and the monetary policy 6 Chart 6 Lek – foreign currency deposits’ interest spread, in nominal terms 6 Chart 7 Nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) 7 Chart 8 Annual changes in the exchange rate 7 Statistical Annex Chart Real sales indicator (in absolute terms) 40 Chart 2 Annual inflation (in percentage) 40 Chart Contribution of main groups to annual inflation (in percentage points) 40 Chart 4 Cumulative and actual fiscal expenditures (in percentage) 40 Chart 5 Total and primary deficit