North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority FINAL CURRENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS REPORT NJTPA Freight System Performance Assessment prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. with Edwards and Kelcey, Inc. A. Strauss-Weider, Inc. Moffatt and Nichol Engineers, Inc. R.L. Banks and Associates, Inc. April 2005 NJTPA Freight System Performance Assessment Final Current and Future Conditions Report Table of Contents 1.0 About This Report......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority, Inc...................................... 1 1.2 Freight System Performance Assessment Study ............................................... 1 1.3 Current and Future Conditions Report............................................................... 2 2.0 Freight System Overview............................................................................................. 4 2.1 Freight Movement and Its Key Drivers .............................................................. 4 2.2 Regional Demographics........................................................................................ 5 2.3 Regional Geography and “Gateway” Function ................................................. 11 2.4 Estimates of Freight Flows for the NJTPA Region ............................................ 13 3.0 Current System Conditions ......................................................................................... 26 3.1 Highway System.................................................................................................... 26 3.1.1 Role of Trucking in Regional Freight Transportation............................. 26 3.1.2 Truck Volumes ............................................................................................. 26 3.1.3 Highway System Performance................................................................... 35 3.2 Rail System.............................................................................................................. 39 3.2.1 Role of Railroads in Regional Freight Transportation ............................ 39 3.2.2 Rail Volumes................................................................................................. 47 3.2.3 Rail System Performance ............................................................................ 49 3.3 Marine Terminals................................................................................................... 53 3.3.1 Role of Marine Terminals in Regional Freight Transportation.............. 53 3.3.2 Marine Terminal Volumes .......................................................................... 58 3.3.3 Marine Terminal Performance ................................................................... 64 3.4 Air Cargo................................................................................................................. 66 3.4.1 Role of Air Cargo in Regional Freight Transportation ........................... 66 3.4.2 Air Cargo Volumes ...................................................................................... 68 3.4.3 Air Cargo Facilities Performance............................................................... 68 3.5 Warehouse and Distribution Facilities................................................................ 68 3.5.1 Role of Warehouse and Distribution Facilities ........................................ 68 3.5.2 Warehouse and Distribution Facilities Volumes ..................................... 69 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. i NJTPA Freight System Performance Assessment Final Current and Future Conditions Report Table of Contents (continued) 4.0 Future System Conditions ........................................................................................... 72 4.1 Growth Forecasts.................................................................................................... 72 4.2 Implications for Future System Conditions ....................................................... 75 4.2.1 Highway ........................................................................................................ 75 4.2.2 Rail System.................................................................................................... 87 4.2.3 Marine Terminals ......................................................................................... 91 4.2.4 Air Cargo....................................................................................................... 95 4.2.5 Warehouse and Distribution ...................................................................... 95 5.0 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 97 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. ii NJTPA Freight System Performance Assessment Final Current and Future Conditions Report List of Tables 1. Demographic Characteristics of NJTPA Region ........................................................ 6 2. County Rank by Manufacturing, Wholesale, and Retail Sales ................................ 6 3. Approximate NJTPA Regional Freight Tonnage ....................................................... 15 4. Originating NJTPA Tonnage by Mode and County (2003) ...................................... 17 5. Terminating NJTPA Tonnage by Mode and County (2003)..................................... 17 6. Originating/Terminating Truck Tons by Commodity (2003).................................. 18 7. Originating/Terminating Rail Tons by Commodity (2001) ..................................... 18 8. Originating/Terminating Waterborne Tons by Type (2003) ................................... 23 9. Estimated Capacity and Demand of Major Rail Lines .............................................. 51 10. Selected At-Grade Highway-Rail Crossing Locations .............................................. 52 11. PONYNJ Waterborne Tonnage (Year 2002)................................................................ 59 12. Estimated NJTPA Waterborne Traffic (2003) ............................................................. 61 13. Current Industrial Square Footage (Second Quarter 2004) ...................................... 71 14. Forecast Elements and Sources..................................................................................... 73 15. Unconstrained Freight Forecasts for NJTPA Region................................................. 74 16. Estimated Through-Train Capacity and Demand (2025).......................................... 88 17. Container Terminal Capacity in the PONYNJ Region.............................................. 93 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. iii NJTPA Freight System Performance Assessment Final Current and Future Conditions Report List of Figures 1. The NJTPA Region......................................................................................................... 3 2. Sales in Manufacturing, Wholesale, and Retail Trades (1997) ................................. 9 3. Employment in Manufacturing, Wholesale, and Retail Trades (2000) ................... 10 4. Regional Gateway Transportation Facilities............................................................... 12 5. Originating NJTPA Tonnage by Mode and County (2003) ...................................... 19 6. Terminating NJTPA Tonnage by Mode and County (2003)..................................... 19 7. Originating/Terminating Truck Tons by Commodity (2003).................................. 20 8. Originating/Terminating Truck Tons by External Region (2003)........................... 21 9. Originating/Terminating Rail Tons by External Region (2001) .............................. 21 10. Originating/Terminating Rail Tons by Commodity (2001) ..................................... 22 11. Originating/Terminating Waterborne Tons by Type ............................................... 24 12. Major Interstate, U.S. and State Highways in the NJTPA Region ........................... 27 13. TRANSEARCH National Truck Tonnage Flows (2000)............................................ 28 14. U.S. DOT Estimated Peak Hour Levels of Service (2000) ......................................... 29 15. Modeled A.M. Peak Truck Volumes (2000)................................................................ 31 16. Modeled A.M. Peak Container Truck Percentages (2000) ........................................ 32 17. Modeled A.M. Peak Non-Container Truck Percentages (2000)............................... 33 18. Modeled A.M. Peak Level of Service (2000) ............................................................... 36 19. Modeled A.M. Peak Level of Service and Truck Percentages (2000)...................... 37 20. Truck Accident Locations (2003) .................................................................................. 38 21. Examples of Unit, Carload, and Intermodal Trains................................................... 40 22. The NJTPA Region’s Major Rail Lines and Railyards............................................... 42 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. iv NJTPA Freight System Performance Assessment Final Current and Future Conditions Report List of Figures (continued) 23. Major Rail Facilities in the North Jersey Shared Asset Area .................................... 43 24. Shortline Railroads in the NJTPA Region ................................................................... 46 25. Unit Train Commodity Tonnage Flows, Year 2000 ................................................... 47 26. Carload Commodity Tonnage Flows, Year 2000 ......................................................