COPYRIGHT AND CITATION CONSIDERATIONS FOR THIS THESIS/ DISSERTATION o Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. o NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes. o ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original. How to cite this thesis Surname, Initial(s). (2012). Title of the thesis or dissertation (Doctoral Thesis / Master’s Dissertation). Johannesburg: University of Johannesburg. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/102000/0002 (Accessed: 22 August 2017). Digital Environment Evolution Modelling and Simulation. Merrick Kenna Bengis Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Doctor Philosophiae in the Faculty of Science Academy of Computer Science and Software Engineering University of Johannesburg Promotors: Prof EM Ehlers & Prof DA Coulter January 2020 I. Abstract The concurrent growth of the human population and advancement in technology, together with ever-changing social interaction, has led to the creation of a large, abstract and complex entity known as the Digital Environment. In the current world, the Digital Environment, which is continually growing and ever-evolving, is now almost unrecognisable from what it started off as nearly 50 years ago. The human population has grown rapidly in the past century, growing to nearly 8 billion people in 2019, already double the population from 1975. This has created a world with more people than ever before, all of whom have a need to communicate with others, share information and form communities. Technology also experienced unprecedented advancements in this time, with important inventions such as electricity, computational machines, and communication networks. These technologies grew and allowed for people around the world to communicate as if they were next to each other, facilitated by the advent of the Internet. Presently, people all around the world are creating, sharing, and consuming information, while forming online communities, and also growing the physical footprint of the Internet and all connected devices. The intersection of these events formed the Digital Environment: an amalgamation of the physical, digital and cyber worlds. It is evident how rapidly and completely the Digital Environment has evolved in the past few decades, so what is in store for the future? Can people prepare for what the Digital Environment is to become and possibly even change its course? This thesis proposes a novel model for the simulation and prediction of the evolution of the Digital Environment: the Digital Environment Evolution Modelling and Simulation model or DEEv-MoS. The DEEv-MoS model proposes a method that makes use of well-developed and commonly used fields of research to create a holistic simulation of the Digital Environment and its many parts. Through the use of intelligent agents, entity component systems and machine learning, accurate simulations can be run to determine how the future digital landscape will grow and change. This allows researchers to further understand what the future holds and prepare for any eventualities, whether they are positive or negative. Keywords: Multi-Agent Systems, Machine Learning, Entity-Component-Systems, Digital Environment, Digital Evolution. i II. Acknowledgements I would like to thank my thesis supervisors: Prof. E.M. Ehlers and Prof. D.A. Coulter for their continual guidance and support throughout the completion of this dissertation. Without their insight and opinion the completion of this thesis would not have been possible. Their encouragement drove me to work hard on this endeavour and not to let up, while their combined experience and knowledge guided me in delivering my research in the correct manner. I would also like to thank my family and friends for their support during this time, as I know it has not been easy for them. They have had to put up with my long working hours, and placing most of my attention on my research. Without their acceptance and support this thesis would have been extremely difficult to complete. I would like to thank Prof. C.H. MacKenzie for editing my thesis and ensuring that the final document delivered was up to standard. Lastly, I would like to thank the National Research Foundation (NRF) for their financial support. Without it I would not have been able to pursue this research, which has required much time and effort, and has incurred various costs. ii III. Table of Contents I. ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................ I II. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................................... II III. TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................ III IV. LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................... VII V. LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................... VIII VI. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................................. IX 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................2 1.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 2 1.2 BACKGROUND LITERATURE .............................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 OBJECTIVES .................................................................................................................................................. 4 1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS .................................................................................................................................... 5 1.5 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................. 6 1.6 THESIS STRUCTURE ........................................................................................................................................ 8 1.6.1 Part One: Introduction .................................................................................................................... 8 1.6.2 Part Two: literature review ............................................................................................................. 8 1.6.3 Part Three: model ........................................................................................................................... 9 1.6.4 Part Four: implementation, critical evaluation and conclusion .................................................... 10 1.7 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................................. 11 2 THE DIGITAL ENVIRONMENT ................................................................................................................ 13 2.1 THE DIGITAL ENVIRONMENT .......................................................................................................................... 13 2.2 HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE CHANGES ............................................................................................................. 15 2.2.1 Computer and network power ...................................................................................................... 15 2.2.2 Virtualisation of operating systems .............................................................................................. 16 2.2.3 Advanced local and internet-wide searching ................................................................................ 16 2.2.4 Broadband and wireless connectivity proliferation ...................................................................... 17 2.2.5 Convergence of technologies ........................................................................................................ 17 2.3 SOCIAL CHANGES ......................................................................................................................................... 18 2.3.1 Technology development in different locales ............................................................................... 18 2.3.2 Expanding online communities ..................................................................................................... 18 2.4 DIGITAL AND SMART CITIES ............................................................................................................................ 19 2.5 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................................. 20 3 INTELLIGENT AGENTS............................................................................................................................ 22 3.1 INTELLIGENT AGENTS, THEIR TYPES AND APPLICATIONS .......................................................................................