Rinderpest Eradication Strategy in the Nile Ecosystem CAPE Unit, PACE Programme Rinderpest Eradication Strategy in the West and East Nile Ecosystems Community-based Animal Health and Epidemiology (CAPE) Unit of the Pan African Programme for the Control of Epizootics (PACE) May 2001 i Rinderpest Eradication Strategy in the Nile Ecosystem CAPE Unit, PACE Programme AU/IBAR (2001). Rinderpest Eradication Strategy in the West and East Nile Ecosystems. African Union/Interafrican Bureau for Animal Resources, Nairobi. © African Union/Interafrican Bureau for Animal Resources, 2001. All rights reserved. ii Rinderpest Eradication Strategy in the Nile Ecosystem CAPE Unit, PACE Programme Abbreviations CAHW Community Animal Health Worker CAPE Community-based Animal Health and Participatory Epidemiology Unit CBPP contagious bovine pleuropneumonia CCS critical community size ECF East Coast fever FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation FMD Foot and mouth disease GOS Government of Sudan IBAR Interafrican Bureau for Animal Resources OAU Organisation of African Unity OLS Operation Lifeline Sudan PACE Programme for the Pan African Control of Epizootics PDS participatory disease searching PE participatory epidemiology PRA participatory rural appraisal RP rinderpest RPV rinderpest virus SCF Save the Children Fund SE stomatitis-enteritis SRRA Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Association Acknowledgements This report was prepared by Dr J. Mariner. The author would like to thank PACE, CAPE and the OLS Livestock Programme for their time, input and the opportunity to undertake this interesting assignment. Special thanks go to Drs. Rene Bessin, Andy Catley and Tim Leyland. The author would also like to mention the staff of the OLS Livestock Programme, particularly Drs. Byrony Jones, Aluma Araba, Gachenko Matindi, George Were and John Osman, for their assistance with data and insights on the operation of the programme and the epidemiology of rinderpest. Thanks are also due for the excellent and dedicated work done during the field missions by the professionals, support staff and drivers of the OLS Livestock Programme. The consultant is also indebted to Drs. John McDermott and Paul Coleman of ILRI and Drs. Mart de Jong and Hermann van Roermund of the Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology Group of ID-Lelystad. Disclaimer The views and recommendations expressed in this report are solely the responsibility of the author. iii Rinderpest Eradication Strategy in the Nile Ecosystem CAPE Unit, PACE Programme Modelling Symbols α alpha: rate of recovery/removal (=1/infectious period) β beta: rate of transmission per infective (=cp) γ gamma: transition rate from exposed to infectious state (=1/latent period) µ mu: non-specific mortality rate σ sigma: rinderpest specific mortality rate b birth rate c number of physical contacts per day d duration of infectiousness f proportion immunized h proportion protected v proportion vaccinated p probability of transmission per contact x proportion susceptible C number of new cases E number exposed I number infectious IP incidence proportion N total number in population at risk (=S+E+I+R) R number removed/recovered Ro basic reproductive number (=cpd or βd) Re effective reproductive number Rh between herd reproductive number S number susceptible iv Rinderpest Eradication Strategy in the Nile Ecosystem CAPE Unit, PACE Programme 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS...... 1 2. PARTICIPATORY DISEASE SEARCH IN THE EAST NILE ECOSYSTEM.... 5 INTRODUCTION, OBJECTIVES AND METHODS................................................................... 5 BOMA .............................................................................................................................. 9 Murle (Nyalongoro and Garawurth) ........................................................................ 10 Jie (Khor Ardep, Lelimay and Kanamuge) and Toposa ........................................... 11 PALUER: THE BOR DINKA AND THE MURLE ................................................................... 13 Bor Dinka.................................................................................................................. 13 Murle......................................................................................................................... 14 KEICHKON AND THE SOBAT BASIN ................................................................................ 15 Nuer........................................................................................................................... 17 Dinka......................................................................................................................... 17 POCHALLA ..................................................................................................................... 17 Anuak ........................................................................................................................ 18 Dinka......................................................................................................................... 19 OVERALL FINDINGS OF THE RINDERPEST INVESTIGATIONS............................................ 19 Vaccination ............................................................................................................... 20 3. ESTIMATION OF THE BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER RO..................... 22 METHODS FOR ESTIMATING RO ..................................................................................... 23 Proportion susceptible in endemic areas.................................................................. 23 Average age of infection in endemic areas............................................................... 24 Incidence proportion and proportion susceptible after epidemics........................... 24 Estimates from case rates ......................................................................................... 25 Estimates from laboratory transmission experiments............................................... 25 Expert opinion: Values of Ro implicit in the rinderpest modelling literature........... 26 ESTIMATES OF RO FOR RINDERPEST IN SOUTHERN SUDAN LIVESTOCK POPULATIONS ... 28 4. DETERMINING THE ROLE OF VACCINATION AND HERD IMMUNITY IN SOUTHERN SUDAN ..................................................................................................... 30 THE BASIC REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER AND HERD IMMUNITY IN SOUTHERN SUDAN ....... 30 VACCINATION COVERAGE, HERD IMMUNITY AND HETEROGENEOUS POPULATIONS IN SOUTHERN SUDAN ......................................................................................................... 32 HERD IMMUNITY AND POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE ................................................... 34 QUANTITATIVE MODELLING .......................................................................................... 34 Model building.......................................................................................................... 34 Preliminary insights from the models....................................................................... 36 5. RINDERPEST ERADICATION STRATEGY FOR THE EAST AND WEST NILE ECOSYSTEMS .................................................................................................... 41 CESSATION OF VACCINATION ........................................................................................ 45 RINDERPEST ERADICATION IN THE EAST NILE ECOSYSTEM........................................... 46 Zonation and vaccination ......................................................................................... 46 Conflict resolution .................................................................................................... 48 v Rinderpest Eradication Strategy in the Nile Ecosystem CAPE Unit, PACE Programme Epidemiologic assessment and surveillance............................................................. 48 6. PARTICIPATORY AND QUANTITATIVE EPIDEMIOLOGY IN CAPE AND PACE................................................................................................................................ 49 DEVELOPMENT AND PROMOTION OF SUSTAINABLE, NATIONAL EPIDEMIOLOGY UNITS 49 Building in sustainability .......................................................................................... 49 Surveillance systems and epidemiologic studies....................................................... 49 Participatory epidemiology and national epidemiology systems ............................. 50 A NATIONAL ROLE FOR COMMUNITY-BASED DISEASE SURVEILLANCE............................ 50 INTEGRATING COMMUNITY-BASED DISEASE SURVEILLANCE INTO NATIONAL SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS................................................................................................ 51 EPIDEMIOLOGIC INTELLIGENCE GATHERING FOR CONTROL/ERADICATION OF MAJOR EPIZOOTIC DISEASE (RINDERPEST, CBPP, FMD). ......................................................... 52 Participatory disease searching and scenario building ........................................... 52 The dynamics of disease endemism and the development of effective control/eradication strategies................................................................................... 53 EPIDEMIOLOGIC SURVEILLANCE IN SOUTHERN SUDAN.................................................. 56 Current activities ...................................................................................................... 56 Suggestions for strengthening surveillance .............................................................. 58 ANNEX 1: TERMS OF REFERENCE........................................................................