THE DYNAMICS OF MEDIATION AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION IN DARFUR, SUDAN: 2004-2011 Johnny Thabo Pitswane Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Supervisor: Prof. Gilbert M. Khadiagala Department of International Relations School of Social Sciences Faculty of Humanities University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents Table of Contents ............................................................................................................. ii Dedication ....................................................................................................................... vi Acknowledgements........................................................................................................ vii Declaration .................................................................................................................... viii List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................. ix Glossary ......................................................................................................................... xii Maps .............................................................................................................................. xiv Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 Darfur: A Brief Perspective ......................................................................................... 1 The Problem ................................................................................................................ 2 Significance of the Study ............................................................................................ 3 Aims ............................................................................................................................. 5 Research Questions ................................................................................................... 5 Organization and Structure ......................................................................................... 9 Chapter 1: Theoretical and Conceptual Framework: Mediation and Conflict Resolution ..................................................................................................................... 14 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 14 Internal or Intra-State Conflicts ................................................................................. 15 Negotiating and Mediating Internal or Intra-state Conflicts ..................................... 15 Negotiation ................................................................................................................ 17 Mediation ................................................................................................................... 18 Institutions and Organizations .................................................................................. 21 States ........................................................................................................................ 23 The Mediator as Actor ............................................................................................... 25 i) Interests .................................................................................................................. 25 ii) Behaviour ............................................................................................................... 25 iii) Strategy, Approach and Tactics ........................................................................... 26 Fundamentals of the Mediation Process .................................................................. 27 i) Diagnostic and Pre-Negotiation Phase.............................................................. 27 ii) Entry into Mediation .............................................................................................. 29 iii) Ripeness Theory and Mutually Hurting Stalemates ........................................ 30 iv) Impartiality .............................................................................................................. 32 v) Peace Agreements and Internal, Civil Conflicts ............................................... 33 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 36 Chapter 2: Background: Geography and History of the Darfur Conflict ..................... 37 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 37 ii Darfur: The Land ....................................................................................................... 37 Climate ...................................................................................................................... 38 The People ................................................................................................................ 39 Religion ...................................................................................................................... 40 Culture ....................................................................................................................... 41 Economy ................................................................................................................... 41 Early History: Statehood and Founding of the Sultanate of Dar Fur ....................... 43 Darfur Under British-Egyptian Colonial Rule ........................................................... 45 1956 and Beyond: Marginalization, Underdevelopment and Resistance in Darfur 46 The Environment and Conflict in Darfur ................................................................... 51 The CPA and Darfur: A Nexus of Converging Grievances ...................................... 56 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 60 Chapter 3: Ndjamena, Addis Ababa and Tripoli Mediation and Agreements .............. 62 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 62 Ndjamena Talks ......................................................................................................... 63 The Mediator ............................................................................................................. 65 Mediation Process .................................................................................................... 65 The Agreement .......................................................................................................... 68 Challenges Facing Mediation ................................................................................... 72 Addis Ababa Talks ..................................................................................................... 77 The Humanitarian Ceasefire Agreement and AMIS ................................................. 80 Tripoli Talks ................................................................................................................ 81 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 83 Chapter 4: Abuja Mediation .......................................................................................... 87 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 87 Background and Context .......................................................................................... 87 Entry of Mediators and the Mediation Environment ................................................. 89 Mediation Framework ............................................................................................... 92 DPA and the Question of Land ............................................................................... 102 Shortcomings of Abuja: ........................................................................................... 104 i) Darfur Conflict Parties Not Hurting Enough .................................................... 104 ii) Divisions Between the Rebel Movements ....................................................... 107 iii) Attributes of Negotiators .................................................................................... 109 iv) Problems with the Process ................................................................................ 110 v) The Impact of Non-Signatory Parties ............................................................... 111 vi) Mediation by Deadlines ...................................................................................... 113 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 120 Chapter 5: Post-Abuja Environment .......................................................................... 124 iii Introduction .............................................................................................................. 124 Protecting the Fragile Peace (From AMIS to UNAMID) ........................................ 125 The state of Post-Abuja Mediation ......................................................................... 128 Re-energizing the Peace Process: Towards the Addis Ababa Conclusions ......... 130 First Tripoli Consultations and the Launch of the AU-UN Roadmap ....................