IBi_ I Public Disclosure Authorized . W *SDevelopment * in Mexico Ian Scott Public Disclosure Authorized A WorldBank Publication Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized I Urban andSpatial. Development in Mexico A WORLD BANK PUBLICATION ti900Tt;120:000 t 1150 1100 105 100°o UNITED STATES OF AMERICA POLITICAL MAP OF MEXICO SONORA , National Capital 7 0 0;;itCHIqgHUAHUA ;00;0000;0t S State\\, Boundaries;t ;0000000001= ;t000000990 t0;\\, i 0 $P - Q0000- t ;0 000000 000 0 . S i COAHUILA %, g tX0 --- InternationalBoundaries COAHUILA o o~~~~~~~~ ~NUEVO' DURANGO LO 0 250 50R 750 Miles SAN 0 40 0 1200 Kilometers QURER OTS-QURAO M~CHOACANMFXICG TLACHAPA UATEMALA HNUA 15 10 00 5 00,5 Urbanand Spatial Development in Mexico IanScott PUBLISHED FOR THE WORLD BANK The Johns Hopkins University Press BALTIMORE ANI) LONDON Copyright © 1982 by The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America The Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore, Maryland 21218, U.S.A. The views and interpretations in this book are the author's and should not be attributed to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to any indi- vidual acting in their behalf. The twenty maps accompanying the text have been prepared exclusively for the convenience of readers of this book; the denominations used and the boundaries shown do not imply, on the part of the World Bank and its affili- ates, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Library of Congress Catalogingin Publication Data Scott, Ian, 1940 Dec. 6- Urban and spatial development in Mexico. Bibliography: p. 319 Includes index. 1. Cities and towns-Mexico. 2. Urban policy- Mexico. I. World Bank. II. Title. HT127.7.S36 307.7'6'0972 80-8023 ISBN 0-8018-2499-0 AACR2 ISBN 0-8018-2498-2(pbk.) Contents Preface xi Chapter 1. Introduction and Summary 3 Spatial Policies and Processes 3 Implementing Spatial lPolicies 12 The Mexican Case 14 Issues of Spatial Development 18 Approaches to Spatial Policy 20 Part One. Development of the Modern Urban System Chapter 2. Origins of the Modern Urban System 25 Urban Development before circa 1875 25 Urban Development from circa 1875 to circa 1910 30 Urban Development from 1910 to 1940 39 Chapter 3. Dynamics of the Modern Urban System 52 Transport and Urban Development 53 Agriculture and Urbani Development 76 Industry and Urban Development 84 Commerce and Services and Urban Development 119 Part Two. Structu,re of the Modern Urban System Chapter 4. Demographic and Economic Structure 123 Demographic Structuie of the Urban System, 1940 to 1970 123 Urban Growth and Sectoral Structure 136 Consumption and Economic Welfare 185 Chapter 5. Regional Structure 204 Area Development from 1940 to 1970 204 Relative Developrmentof the Regions 214 v vi Contents Part Three. Urban and Spatial Policy Chapter 6. Issues in Urban and Spatial Policy 235 Centralization 235 Regional Balance 250 Spatial Integration 251 Chapter 7. Options for Future Urban and Spatial Policy 256 Parameters of Urban and Spatial Policy 256 Alternative Strategies for Urban and Spatial Policy 267 Appendixes Appendix A. Definition of Urban Places 297 Appendix B. Analysis of Population Growth 300 Appendix C. Analysis of Relative Accessibility 302 Appendix D. Demographic Components of Urban Growth 308 Appendix E. Water Resources 311 Appendix F. Technical Notes 315 Rank-Size Rule 315 Coefficient of Specialization 315 Index of Surplus Workers 316 Gini Coefficient 316 Graph Theory Analysis 316 Location Quotient 317 Nearest Neighbor Analysis 318 Principal References 319 Index 323 TABLES 2-1. Exports, 1877 to 1911 31 2-2. Population Growth in the Twenty-five Largest Cities, 1877 and 1900 36 2-3. Population of the Twenty-five Largest Cities, 1910 and 1940 43 2-4. Demographic Trends, 1900 to 1940 47 2-5. Size of UrbanPopulation for DifferentDefinitions of the UrbanPopulation, 1910 and 1940 48 2-6. Urban Population as Defined by Urban Size Groups, 1910 and 1940 48 2-7. Indexes of Urban Primacy, 1900, 1920, and 1940 48 2-8. Comparison of the Twenty-five Largest Cities, 1900 to 1940 49 2-9. Growth Rates of Different Cities, 1900 to 1940 50 Contents vii 3-1. Urbanization, Based on Various Population Thresholds 53 3-2. National and Urban Population, Absolute Growth, and Average Annual Growth Rates, 1946' to 1970 54 3-3. Origin and Destination of Railroad Cargo Traffic between Principal Cities, 1970 56 3-4. Road Inventory, Classified by State and Region, 1934 to 1970 64 3-5. Road Density Index, by Region, 1930 to 1970 67 3-6. Average Travel Times by Road between Selected Cities, 1966 and 1973 68 3-7. Origin and Destination of Air Passenger Traffic, 1967 72 3-8. Origin and Destinarion of Air Passenger Traffic, 1973 73 3-9. Nearest Neighbor Analysis for the Twenty-five Largest Cities in 1900 74 3-10. Nearest Neighbor Analysis for the Twenty-five Largest Cities in 1940 75 3-11. Agricultural Productivity and Income, 1970 80 3-12. Index of Capital Investment per Hectare of Cultivated Land and Percent of Cultivated Land urder Irrigation, by State, 1940 to 1960 83 3-13. Structural Changes in National Manufacturing Employment, 1940 to 1970 86 3-14. Employment and Output in Industrial Subsectors, 1970 87 3-15. Population and Rank, by State, 1940 to 1970 88 3-16. Rural Monthly Income, by Income Bracket, 1969 to 1970 92 3-17. Urban Monthly Income, by Income Bracket, 1969 to 1970 92 3-18. Average Monthly Income per Rural Family, Classified by State and Income Bracket, 1969 to 1970 93 3-19. Average Monthly Incomeper Urban Family, Classified by State and Income Bracket, 1969 to 1970 94 3-20. Average Monthly Income per Family, Classified by State and Income Bracket, 1969 to 1170 95 3-21. Regional Differences in Income Distribution, 1969 to 1970 96 3-22. Income per Capita and Gini Coefficient, by State, 1969 98 3-23. Analytical Indicators of Industrial Structure in Selected Cities, 1970 99 3-24. Per Capita Financial Savings, by State, 1940 and 1970 101 3-25. Credit Outstanding from Private and Public Credit Institutions, by State and by Sector, 1972 102 3-26. Regional Distribution of Factories Granted Tax Relief under the Law of New and Necessary Industries, 1940 to 1964 106 3-27. Distribution of' Federal Public Investment among the States, 1959 to 1970 112 4-1. Evolution of the Population of the Thirty-seven Largest Cities, 1940 to 1970 124 4-2. Compound Annual Growth Rates for the Thirty-seven Largest Cities, 1970 125 4-3. Indexes of Urban Primacy, 1940 to 1970 126 4-4. Membership in the Sets of the Twenty-five, Ten, and Five Largest Cities, 1940 to 1970 127 4-5. Cities with Greatest Growth Resultingfrom Migration, 1940 to 1960 128 4-6. Natural Growth of Large-City Population, by Regional Group, 1940 to viii Contents 1970, and as a Percentage of Total Growth, Including and Excluding Coalescence 130 4-7. Urban Population Growth Attributable to Coalescenceor Reclassification, 1940 to 1970 131 4-8. Distribution of Urban Population among the States, 1940 to 1970 134 4-9. Urban Population and Compounded Annual Growth of Urbanization, by State, 1940 to 1970 135 4-10. Distribution of NonagriculturalEmplovment among Thirty-sevenCities, by Sector, 1940 138 4-11. Distributionof NonagriculturalEmployment among Thirty-sevenCities, by Sector, 1970 140 4-12. Location Quotient for Industrial Employment in Thirty-seven Cities, 1940 and 1970 142 4-13. Location Quotients for Industrial Employment in Relation to Urban Population Size, 1940 and 1970 143 4-14. Distribution of Employment in Industrial Subsectorsamong Thirty-seven Cities, 1970 144 4-15. Distribution of Employment in Commerce Subsectors among Thirty-five Cities, 1965 148 4-16. Commercial Indicatorsfor Thirty-seven Cities, 1965 150 4-17. Distribution of Employment in Service Subsectorsamong Thirty-six Cities, 1965 152 4-18. Distribution of NonagriculturalEmployment within Thirty-seven Cities, by Sector, 1940 154 4-19. Distribution of NonagriculturalEmployment within Thirty-sevenCities, by Sector, 1970 156 4-20. Average Growth Rates of Sectoral Employment in Thirty-seven Cities, by Sector, 1940 to 1970 158 4-21. Coefficients of Sectoral Specializationfor Thirty-seven Cities, by Sector, 1940 162 4-22. Coefficients of Sectoral Specializationfor Thirty-seven Cities, by Sector, 1970 164 4-23. Surplus Workers in Thirty-seven Cities, by Sector, 1940 166 4-24. Surplus Workers in Thirty-seven Cities, by Sector, 1970 168 4-25. Distribution of Employment in Industry within Thirty-sevenCities, by Sub- sector, 1970 172 4-26. Distribution of Employment in Industry within Thirty-seven Cities, by Groups of Subsectors, 1970 176 4-27. Index of Industrial Specialization in Thirty-seven Cities, 1970 177 4-28. Coefficientsof Industrial Specializationfor Thirty-sevenCities, 1970 178 4-29. Distribution of Employment in Commerce within Thirty-five Cities, by Subsector, 1965 182 4-30. Coefficientsof Specializationin Commercefor Thirty-fiveCities, by Subsec- tor, 1965 186 4-31. Surplus Workers in Commerce in Thirty-five Cities, by Subsector, 1965 188 Contents ix 4-32. Distribution of Employment in Services within Thirty-six Cities, by Subsec- tor, 1965 190 4-33. Coefficientof Specialization in Servicesfor Thirty-six Cities, by Subsector, 1965 192 4-34. Surplus Workers in Servicesin Thirty-six Cities, by Subsector, 1965 194 4-35. Social Indicatorsfor Thirty-seven Cities, 1970 200 5-1. Index of State Development, 1940 to 1970 206 5-2. Development of' States Relative to That of the Federal District, 1940 to 1970 209 5-3. Relative Urbanizationand AgriculturalDevelopment, by State, 1970 210 5-4.