Resilience in the Wadden ecosystem A case study on the resilience approach in addressing uncertainties in climate adaptation Petra Westerlaan Utrecht University March 2010 Photo cover: ‘Summer day, Schiermonnikoog’ by P. Westerlaan 2 Colofon Title: Resilience in the Wadden ecosystem A case study on the resilience approach in addressing uncertainties in climate adaptation Type of report: Master thesis Author: Petra Westerlaan Utrecht University Master Environmental Biology, Ecology & Natural Resources Management E-mail address: [email protected] Supervisors: Arjan Wardekker E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Jeroen P. van der Sluijs E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Pita A. Verweij E-mail: [email protected] Arie de Jong E-mail: [email protected] University: Utrecht University Copernicus Institute Group Science, Technology and Society (STS) Heidelberglaan 2 3584 CS Utrecht The Netherlands Time of publication: March 2010 Internal report number: NWS-S-2010-6 3 4 Preface This thesis is written as part of the master program Ecology & Natural Resources Management of Environmental Biology at Utrecht University (the Netherlands). This study is carried out in the framework of the Utrecht University case-studies project called ‘case-studies uncertainties and climate adaptation’ which contributes to the Netherlands Assessment Agency’s project ‘M/500078/01: Climate Policy and Adaptation’. During my Bachelor Biology at Utrecht University, my interest was already in the field of applied biology at the interface of ecology and society with courses like ‘the researcher as advisor’ and ‘environment, biology and society’. Climate change is a theme that interests me very much. Therefore, I wrote my bachelor thesis on climate change and tropical deforestation, more specifically about the CO2 sink capacity of natural forest in the Brazilian Amazon. This study is in line with these interests as it deals with climate change and it is a topic at the interface of ecology and society. This research project started in November 2008 and continued until August 2009 as a full- time occupation whereas the report writing included a week in December and a week in March. During this period, I experienced both highs and lows. Overall, I believe I have learned a lot from this first scientific research experience in which I learned to perform scientific research independently and worked with multiple scientists on a larger project. I hope that this final report will contribute to the scientific knowledge on operationalising resilience in a specific ecosystem. Many people helped and supported me throughout this study and here I would like to thank them for that. First of all, I would like to thank my supervisors, especially Arjan Wardekker, but also Jeroen van der Sluijs, Pita Verweij and Arie de Jong for their help, support, useful comments on earlier versions of this report, inspiration and for always being open for my questions. Second, Marijke Vonk from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and Marjolein Mens from Deltares are thanked for their contributions during the monthly project meetings. Further, I would like tot thank the interviewees for their time and cooperation. Also, many thanks to the workshop participants. They made a great contribution to this study by commenting and discussing on preliminary study results and also by actively participating in the brainstorm process on possible measures that would enhance the resilience of the Wadden ecosystem. Finally, I would like to thank my family, friends and fellow students for their support, in particular Marjolein Meulensteen, Marielle Corsten, Magda Rouw, and Frank Rietdijk of the student’s computer room for their support and laughs, and Marjolein Meulensteen also for her comments on earlier versions of this report. Petra Westerlaan, Utrecht, March 2010 5 6 Table of contents COLOFON 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 7 SUMMARY 10 1. INTRODUCTION 13 1.1 CLIMATE CHANGE 13 1.2 CLIMATE ADAPTATION UNDER UNCERTAINTIES: RESILIENCE 14 1.3 OBJECTIVE AND RESEARCH QUESTION 14 1.4 READING GUIDE 15 2. METHODOLOGY 17 2.1 RESILIENCE ALLIANCE WORKBOOK 17 2.2 DATA COLLECTION 18 2.3 CONCEPTUAL MODELS 19 3. RESILIENCE THINKING 20 3.1 DISTURBANCES AND THE ADAPTIVE CYCLE 20 3.2 ALTERNATIVE STATES AND REGIME SHIFTS- IN THEORY 22 3.3 ALTERNATIVE STATES AND REGIME SHIFTS- IN PRACTICE 24 3.4 DEFINITION, CHARACTERISTICS & PRINCIPLES 27 3.5 MANAGING RESILIENCE 32 3.6 RESILIENCE IN THE WADDEN AREA 34 3.7 CONCLUDING REMARKS 35 4. WADDEN ECOSYSTEM 36 4.1 DEMARCATION STUDY AREA 36 4.2 WADDEN ECOSYSTEM 37 4.3 MULTIPLE SCALES 47 4.4 VALUES AND ECOSYSTEM GOODS AND SERVICES 50 4.5 SOCIAL-ECONOMIC FEATURES 50 4.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS 55 7 5. MANAGEMENT, STAKEHOLDERS AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY 56 5.1 GOVERNANCE, MANAGEMENT AND POLICY FRAMEWORK 56 5.2 STAKEHOLDERS: IDENTIFICATION AND RELATIONSHIPS 58 5.3 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY 61 5.4 BUILDING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY 65 5.5 CONCLUDING REMARKS 65 6. HISTORICAL TIMELINE 66 6.1. UNDERLYING TRENDS 66 6.2 1720-1920: MODERN PERIOD 67 6.3 1920-1970: EARLY GLOBAL PERIOD 68 6.4 1970-2009: LATE GLOBAL PERIOD 70 6.5 SUMMARY 73 6.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS 75 7. DISTURBANCES: CLIMATE CHANGE 76 7.1 DISTURBANCE REGIME WADDEN ECOSYSTEM 76 7.2 CLIMATE CHANGE 77 7.3 CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS WADDEN ECOSYSTEM 81 7.4 CLIMATE ADAPTATION INITIATIVES 91 7.5 CONCLUDING REMARKS 92 8. REGIME SHIFTS TO ALTERNATIVE STATES 93 8.1 DESIRABLE STATE OF THE WADDEN ECOSYSTEM: RESILIENCE OF WHAT? 93 8.2 ALTERNATIVE STATES WADDEN ECOSYSTEM 96 8.3 SHIFT TO EXOTIC DOMINANCE: TOWARDS A PACIFIC OYSTER DOMINATED STATE 102 8.4 SHIFT TO CRUSTACEA DOMINATED STATE 106 8.3 CONCLUDING REMARKS 109 9. MEASURES TO ENHANCE RESILIENCE 110 9.1 RESILIENCE AGAINST PACIFIC OYSTER DOMINATED STATE 110 9.2 RESILIENCE AGAINST CRUSTACEA DOMINATED STATE 111 9.3 RESILIENCE AGAINST DROWNED WADDEN SEA 112 9.4 RESILIENCE TOWARDS SEAGRASS BEDS PRESENT 113 9.5 RESILIENCE TOWARDS THE DESIRABLE STATE 114 9.6 ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE IN GENERAL 118 9.7 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESILIENCE 119 9.8 SYNTHESIS OF MEASURES 121 9.9 CONCLUDING REMARKS 123 8 10. DISCUSSION 124 10.1 RESULTS 124 10.2 REFLECTIONS ON METHODOLOGY 127 10.3 NATURA 2000 VS. RESILIENCE THINKING 130 10.4 VALUE OF RESILIENCE APPROACH 131 10.5 FUTURE RESEARCH 131 11. CONCLUSION 132 11.1 RESILIENCE AND REGIME SHIFTS WADDEN ECOSYSTEM 132 11.2 RESILIENCE-ENHANCING MEASURES 132 11.3 END CONCLUSION 134 GLOSSARY 135 12. REFERENCES 136 12.1 PERSONAL COMMUNICATION 136 12.2 LITERATURE 136 12.3 WEBSITES 147 APPENDIX A: WORKSHOP 150 VERSLAG WORKSHOP “VEERKRACHTIGE WADDEN, NATUURLIJK!” 150 BIJLAGE A1: PRESENTATIE 1 – INTRODUCTIE (A. WARDEKKER) 156 BIJLAGE A2: PRESENTATIE 2 – GEWENSTE STAAT SYSTEEM + REGIME SHIFTS (P. VERWEIJ) 165 BIJLAGE A3: BRIEFING NOTE: ACHTERGRONDINFORMATIE 171 BIJLAGE A4: HAND-OUT 172 9 Summary The wide ranges in temperature and sea-level rise predictions of the leading and extremer climate change scenarios together with ‘surprise scenarios’ reflect the great deal of uncertainties surrounding climate change. Despite the efforts that are made to mitigate climate change, increasingly attention is paid to climate adaptation. Nature is facing an enormous challenge regarding ongoing climate change, so climate adaptation is an important issue in this field. One of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty in climate adaptation is the resilience strategy, a bottom-up approach whereby it is crucial to strengthen the system as a whole. In this study, resilience is defined as ‘the capacity of a system to maintain its essential functions and provide ecosystem services during or after a disturbance without collapsing into a qualitatively different, undesirable state’. The resilience approach explores how measures can build resilience in favour of the desired state and at the same time prevent the system from shifting into a qualitatively different, undesired state. Management that builds resilience can sustain social-ecological systems in the face of surprise, unpredictability, and complexity (Folke et al., 2002). The objective of this study is to examine the resilience strategy in the Wadden Sea area as a way to cope with climate change uncertainties in climate adaptation policy making. The focus lies on the ecological dimension of the system. The research question is “How can resilience be operationalised for the Wadden ecosystem?” To investigate this research question, the workbook of the Resilience Alliance (2007) is used as a guideline. An important nature area in the Netherlands is the Wadden Sea area, one of the largest coherent tidal systems of the world characterised by high productivity and biodiversity (varying from algae to birds, fish and seals). The area belongs to the most important nature areas of Europe and internationally, the Wadden ecosystem is an important stop-over for migrating birds (RCW, 2008), while it also functions as a nursery for many North Sea fish species. Recently, the Wadden Sea has become an UNESCO world heritage site. The aesthetic value is important for the functions of tourism, recreation and quality of living. Important ecosystem goods and services provided by the Wadden ecosystem include coastal protection from flooding, water purification and drainage, aesthetic value (important for tourism), several fisheries (mussel, cockle, shrimp, flatfish, and worm), winning of shells, and the research value. A lot of stakeholders are involved in the Wadden Sea area. Anno 2009, there is a clear shift in thinking about management and policy: more cooperation takes place between parties that used to clash in the past and an integrated perspective is increasingly employed. Also, knowledge is increasingly integrated in policy-making. Several economic sectors are aiming for sustainable use of the Wadden ecosystem. An assessment of the adaptive capacity in view of climate change showed that there is ample financial and knowledge capital present within the Wadden ecosystem.