EVALUATION OF BARGE FLOTILLA ABERRANCY RATES AND INTER-BARGE RELATIVE MOTIONS FOR THE ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF WATERWAY BRIDGE STRUCTURES SUBJECT TO BARGE COLLISIONS By GEORGE CHRISTOPHER KANTRALES A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2016 © 2016 George Christopher Kantrales To my parents, Peter and Sophia Kantrales ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research presented in this dissertation could not have been completed without the support and guidance of multiple individuals. Among these people, I would like to extend particular thanks to Dr. Gary Consolazio for serving as a strong mentor throughout the time that I have spent at the University of Florida. My growth as an engineer during the past four years has surpassed my expectations. I would also like to thank my committee members, Dr. H.R. (Trey) Hamilton, Dr. Jennifer Rice, Dr. Kurtis Gurley, and Dr. Youping Chen for their advice and input. Several students also provided key assistance with various aspects of this research. Accordingly, I would like to recognize and thank Ms. Juliana Rochester, Mr. Renato Davila, and Mr. Jeffrey Honig for their help with various data processing and analysis tasks. The large-scale pendulum impact tests that were included in this research were conducted with the full support of the Marcus H. Ansley Structures Research Center. Without the assistance of Mr. David Wagner, Mr. William Potter, Mr. Stephen Eudy, Mr. Paul Tighe, Mr. Chris Weigly, Mr. David Allen, Mr. Ben Allen, Mr. Brandon Winter, and Mr. Sam Fallaha, such a significant logistical effort could not have been completed. I would also like to thank my friends and family for their love and support. My parents, Peter D. and Sophia Kantrales, and my brothers, Peter C. and Ange Kantrales, have been bastions of support throughout my entire academic experience. My closest friends, Mr. Josh Belcher, Mr. Daniel Terry, Mr. Dustin Maherg, Dr. David Mante, and Mr. Shayne Cumbie have been a source of strength for me, and have provided both cheerful conversations as well as thoughtful advice during tough times. Dr. Daniel Getter, both a friend and a mentor, served as a model researcher for me during the formative years of my doctoral experience; without his example, my growth as a researcher would have been much more limited. 4 Finally, but most significantly, I would like to thank my wife Katie for being so supportive throughout one of the greatest and most challenging accomplishments of my career; her patience is more than I deserve. I’m glad that I will be able to spend the rest of my life with such a wonderful person. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...............................................................................................................4 LIST OF TABLES ...........................................................................................................................9 LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................................11 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................................16 ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................21 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................23 1.1 Motivation .........................................................................................................................23 1.2 Objectives .........................................................................................................................25 1.3 Organization .....................................................................................................................25 2 BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................28 2.1 AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications ...............................................................29 2.1.1 Probability of Aberrancy ........................................................................................31 2.1.2 Geometric Probability ............................................................................................33 2.1.3 Protection Factor ....................................................................................................34 2.1.4 Barge Impact Forces ...............................................................................................34 2.1.5 Limitations ..............................................................................................................36 2.2 Eurocode 1: Actions on Structures ...................................................................................37 2.2.1 General Principles ..................................................................................................38 2.2.2 Risk Analysis Methodology ...................................................................................41 2.3 Previous UF/FDOT Research ...........................................................................................43 2.3.1 Full-Scale Barge Impact Experiments ....................................................................43 2.3.2 Coupled Vessel Impact Analysis (CVIA) ..............................................................44 2.3.3 Barge Bow Force-Deformation Behavior ..............................................................45 2.4 Related Research ..............................................................................................................46 2.4.1 Impact Event Prediction .........................................................................................46 2.4.2 Barge Bow Force-Deformation Behavior ..............................................................51 2.4.3 Multi-Barge Flotilla Behavior ................................................................................53 2.5 Observations .....................................................................................................................55 3 DETERMINATION OF BARGE IMPACT PROBABILITIES FOR BRIDGE DESIGN....64 3.1 Methodology .....................................................................................................................65 3.1.1 Approach ................................................................................................................65 3.1.2 Data Sources ...........................................................................................................67 6 3.1.3 General Data Analysis Methods .............................................................................72 3.2 Data Collection .................................................................................................................78 3.2.1 Barge Collision Data ..............................................................................................78 3.2.2 Barge Traffic Data ..................................................................................................81 3.2.3 Supporting Information ..........................................................................................82 3.3 Data Analysis ....................................................................................................................83 3.3.1 Probability of Impact ..............................................................................................84 3.3.2 Modification Factors ..............................................................................................89 3.3.3 Additional Probabilities ..........................................................................................90 3.3.4 Base Aberrancy Rate Calibration ...........................................................................91 3.4 Discussion .........................................................................................................................92 3.5 Summary ...........................................................................................................................94 4 EXPERIMENTAL VALIDATION OF BARGE BOW FORCE-DEFORMATION BEHAVIOR ..........................................................................................................................121 4.1 Approach .........................................................................................................................122 4.2 Experimental Procedures ................................................................................................125 4.3 Experimental Results ......................................................................................................128 4.3.1 RND Series ...........................................................................................................128 4.3.2 FLT Series ............................................................................................................129 4.3.3 Comparisons .........................................................................................................130 4.4 Analytical Modeling Procedures ....................................................................................130 4.5 Comparison of Experimental and Analytical Results .....................................................132 4.6 Summary .........................................................................................................................133