RESEARCH REPORT Options for Investing in Access to High-Quality Preschool in Cincinnati Lynn A. Karoly, Anamarie Auger, Courtney Ann Kase, Robert C. McDaniel, Eric W. Rademacher Prepared for Cincinnati Business Committee and United Way of Greater Cincinnati C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1615 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9645-6 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: iStock/mayo5 Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Like other major cities in the United States, Cincinnati, Ohio, is seeking to expand access to and raise the quality of preschool programs, especially for the most-vulnerable children. To provide options for the community in Cincinnati to consider, the RAND Corporation and its partners— MetrixIQ and the University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research—conducted a portfolio of interrelated research activities consisting of • a literature review of national, state, and local research on the demonstrated impact of early learning programs on children’s concurrent and long-term academic and social– emotional development and the economic returns to such programs • an assessment of the current preschool landscape in Cincinnati, reflecting the number and composition of preschool-age children in the city; the supply of school- and center-based providers and their quality; and current federal, state, and local funding streams that subsidize early care and education programs for preschool-age children • the perspectives of key stakeholders in Cincinnati regarding the current preschool landscape and options for future investment in preschool access and quality • a review of preschool initiatives implemented in other cities and states most relevant for Cincinnati, with lessons learned from implementing or expanding access to high-quality preschool education • an assessment of options for improving access to high-quality preschool in Cincinnati, with attention to potential funding streams, rollout options, governance models, data for monitoring and evaluation, and other supports necessary for the program to be successful and address anticipated challenges and risks. An initial report addresses the first study component: • Informing Investments in Preschool Quality and Access in Cincinnati: Evidence of Impacts and Economic Returns from National, State, and Local Preschool Programs, by Lynn A. Karoly and Anamarie Auger, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR- 1461, 2016. This report presents the findings from the remaining study activities. A contract from the Cincinnati Business Committee and the United Way of Greater Cincinnati supported this research. The report should be of interest to key stakeholders in the public and private sectors in Cincinnati focused on preschool policy. Policymakers, practitioners, advocates, and researchers in other parts of the United States might find the context for preschool policy in Cincinnati and the options for future investments of interest as well. iii RAND Education and RAND Labor and Population conducted this research jointly. Additional information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. iv Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures........................................................................................................................................... vii Tables ............................................................................................................................................. ix Summary ........................................................................................................................................ xi Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................... xxv Chapter One. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 Study Objective and Approach ................................................................................................... 2 Informing Investments: What the Research Literature Says ...................................................... 4 Road Map .................................................................................................................................... 6 Chapter Two. Preschool Landscape in Cincinnati .......................................................................... 7 Demographics and Economics of Preschool-Age Children ..................................................................... 8 Supply of Early Care and Education Spaces and Their Quality ............................................................. 10 Estimating the Preschool Enrollment Rate ............................................................................................. 16 Mapping the Preschool Landscape ......................................................................................................... 18 Funding Streams for Early Care and Education for Preschool-Age Children ........................................ 22 Potential Reach of Publicly Funded Early Care and Education Programs ............................................. 26 Chapter Three. Stakeholder Perspectives on Preschool in Cincinnati .......................................... 29 Approach to Conducting the Interviews ................................................................................................. 30 The State of Preschool in Cincinnati ...................................................................................................... 31 Funding Streams ..................................................................................................................................... 33 Cincinnati Preschool Data Sources ......................................................................................................... 34 Access and Quality Gaps in the Current Preschool Landscape .............................................................. 35 Resource and Capacity Needs ................................................................................................................ 36 Chapter Four. Preschool Models from Other U.S. Cities ............................................................. 39 Overview of Cities Reviewed and Their Preschool Initiatives ............................................................... 41 Program Access ...................................................................................................................................... 43 Program Delivery and Reimbursement .................................................................................................. 47 Program Quality–Related Features and Requirements ........................................................................... 51 Program Funding and Reach .................................................................................................................. 53 Program Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................ 56 Chapter Five. Modeling Preschool Policy Options for Cincinnati ............................................... 61 Scenarios for Modeling .......................................................................................................................... 63 Financial Modeling Key Parameters and Assumptions .......................................................................... 67 Results of the Financial Model for Alternative Scenarios ...................................................................... 75 Results of Economic Analysis for Alternative Scenarios ....................................................................... 85 v Chapter Six. Conclusions and Implications .................................................................................. 91 Key Findings ........................................................................................................................................... 91 Implications of the Findings for Advancing Access to High-Quality Preschool ................................... 93 Appendix A. Sources of Data on Provider Supply ......................................................................