Contents i RESOURCE GOVERNANCE, AgrICULTURE AND SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS IN THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN ii Resource Governance, Agriculture and Sustainable Livelihoods in the Lower Mekong Basin The Strategic Information and Research Development Centre is an independent publishing house founded in January 2000 in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia. The SIRD list focuses on Malaysian and Southeast Asian studies, economics, gender studies, social sciences, politics and international relations. Our books address the scholarly community, students, the NGO and development communities, policy-makers, activists and the wider public. SIRD also distributes titles (via its sister organization, GB Gerakbudaya Enterprise Sdn Bhd) published by scholarly and institutional presses, NGOs and other independent publishers. We also organize seminars, forums and group discussions. All this, we believe, is conducive to the development and consolidation of the notions of civil liberty and democracy. Contents iii RESOURCE GOVERNANCE, AgrICULTURE AND SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS IN THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN edited by Le Viet Phu, Nguyen Van Giap, Le Thi Quynh Tram, Chu Thai Hoanh and Malcolm McPherson SIRD Strategic Information and Research Development Centre Petaling Jaya, Malaysia iv Resource Governance, Agriculture and Sustainable Livelihoods in the Lower Mekong Basin First published in 2019 by Strategic Information and Research Development Centre No. 2, Jalan Bukit 11/2, 46200 Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia. Email: [email protected] / Website: www.gerakbudaya.com and The Lower Mekong Public Policy Initiative Fulbright University Vietnam 105 Ton Dat Tien, District 7 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam www.lmppi.edu.vn Copyright © 2019 The Lower Mekong Public Policy Initiative The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. Supported by Disclaimers This publication was made possible by the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of USAID, Harvard University, Fulbright University Vietnam or the Lower Mekong Public Policy Initiative. Perpustakaan Negara Malaysia / Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Resource Governance, Agriculture and Sustainable Livelihoods in the Lower Mekong Basin / edited by: Le Viet Phu, Nguyen Van Giap, Le Thi Quynh Tram, Chu Thai Hoanh and Malcolm McPherson. ISBN 978-967-2165-73-6 1. Water resources development–Environmental aspects–Mekong River Basin. 2. Water resources development–Mekong River Basin. I. Le, Viet Phu. II. Nguyen, Van Giap. III. Le, Thi Quynh Tram. IV. Chu, Thai Hoanh. V. McPherson, Malcolm. 338.1095978 Cover image: LMPPI Cover design and layout: Janice Cheong Printed by Vinlin Press Sdn Bhd 2, Jalan Meranti Permai 1, Jalan Puchong, 47100 Puchong, Selangor, Malaysia. Contents v Contents List of Illustrations ix Abbreviations xv Acknowledgments xvii Preface xix Map of the Lower Mekong Basin xx Introduction 1 Le Viet Phu, Nguyen Van Giap, Le Thi Quynh Tram, Chu Thai Hoanh and Malcolm McPherson I. The Environment 1. The Environment-Economic Development Nexus in the 15 Lower Mekong Basin: Hydropower, Climate Change, and Transboundary Water Cooperation Le Viet Phu 2. Beyond the Battery: Power Expansion Alternatives for 27 Economic Resilience and Diversity in Laos Nkiruka Avila, Noah Kittner, Rebekah Shirley, Michael B. Dwyer, David Roberts, Jalel Sager and Daniel M. Kammen 3. Hydropower Development in Lao PDR: Macroeconomic and 65 Environmental Implications Phanhpakit Onphanhdala and Vatthanamixay Chansomphou 4. Counting all of the Costs: Choosing the Right Mix of Electricity 93 Sources in Vietnam to 2025 David Dapice and Le Viet Phu 5. The Undervaluation of Ecosystem Services in the Lower 121 Mekong Basin Malcolm McPherson and Le Thi Quynh Tram vi Resource Governance, Agriculture and Sustainable Livelihoods in the Lower Mekong Basin 6. Pricing and Management of Groundwater Irrigation in Vietnam 133 Le Viet Phu II. Agriculture 7. Agriculture in the Lower Mekong Basin: Current Trends and 155 Policy Challenges Malcolm McPherson and Le Thi Quynh Tram 8. Effects of Seed Quality on Sustainable Black Tiger Shrimp 167 Production in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Le Canh Dung and Vo Van Tuan 9. Land-Use Strategies for Triple-Rice Farmers in the Floodplains 189 of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Nguyen Hong Tin and Dang Kieu Nhan 10. Small-scale Aquaculture and Fisheries Management in the 227 Floodplains of the Lower Mekong Delta, Vietnam Tran Dac Dinh, Vo Thanh Toan, Huynh Van Hien, Tran Dinh Hoa, Nguyen Thi Vang, Dang Kieu Nhan III. Livelihoods 11. The Implications of Rice Policy Changes in Vietnam for Rice 241 Producers in Southeastern Cambodia Ear Sothy and Sim Sokcheng 12. The Future of Natural Resource-Dependent Livelihoods in 265 the Lower Mekong Basin Malcolm McPherson and Le Thi Quynh Tram 13. Impacts of the New Rural Development Program in the 279 Vietnamese Mekong Delta, 2010–2015 Nguyen Van Giap and Ngo Quang Thanh Contents vii 14. Impacts of the East-West Economic Corridor on Forest- 305 Dependent Livelihoods in Vietnam, Laos and Thailand Bui Duc Tinh and Dao Duy Minh 15. Gender Roles in Different Farming Systems in the Mekong 329 Delta Floodplains, Vietnam Tran Thi Phung Ha 16. Implications of Rubber Land Concessions and Local Resource 353 Governance in Cambodia Oulavanh Keovilignavong and Diana Suhardiman About the Contributors 369 Index 371 viii Resource Governance, Agriculture and Sustainable Livelihoods in the Lower Mekong Basin List of Illustrations ix List of Illustrations Figures 1.1 Main players in water use in the Mekong River system 22 2.1 MEM’s vision of hydropower development in Lao PDR, 31 1975–2030 2.2 Lao exports, by percentage of total value, 1995–2014 34 2.3 BDP2+3 installed capacity additions by year 40 2.4 “No Coal” installed capacity additions by year 40 2.5 Capacity expansion plan for Full Build scenario to 2030 41 2.6 The 2030 generation mix for BDP2 +3 with and 42 without biomass utilization 2.7 Existing transmission infrastructure and non-electrified villages 48 2.8 Changes in optimal electrification solutions for villages under 50 high diesel costs A1 Insolation and transmission lines in Laos 57 3.1 Export value of timber, electricity and mining, 1991–2015 69 (US$m) 3.2 Share of direct tax from timber, electricity and mining, 70 1995–2016 3.3 Natural resource revenue (direct and indirect tax) as % 70 of government revenue (not including grants), 1995–2015 3.4 Fiscal balance as percentage of GDP 72 3.5 Location of Nam Ngum 2 76 3.6 Projection of Nam Ngum 2 revenue contribution, 2011–30 78 3.7 Location of Nam Ngiep 1 Hydropower Project 79 3.8 Projection of Nam Ngiep 1’s contribution to revenue, 2020–30 80 3.9 Projections of hydropower royalties in Laos, 2005–2030 81 4.1 Electricity consumption in kWh per capita in 2015, and 95 Vietnam projections for 2025 4.2 GDP per capita in 2015, selected nations, and Vietnam in 2025 96 4.3 kWh pc per $1,000 of per capita GDP in 2015, selected nations, 97 and projected for Vietnam to 2025 4.4 Average prices of electricity 99 6.1 Cross-section of groundwater aquifer in the Bassac River 136 6.2 Different groundwater irrigation systems in Vietnam 136 x Resource Governance, Agriculture and Sustainable Livelihoods in the Lower Mekong Basin 6.3 Total value and marginal value of water 139 6.4 The structure of a with-and-without analysis 145 6.5 The location of 12 VARHS provinces, and field surveys in 146 Cu M’gar district, Dak Lak province, and Tran Van Thoi district, Ca Mau province 6.6 Number of farm plots by irrigation type 147 7.1 Agricultural value-added in the Lower Mekong Basin, 157 1995–2014 (% of GDP) 8.1 Location of representative case study communes with two 169 shrimp production systems in the VMD 8.2 Shrimp farming areas in the coastal VMD including CBST 172 provinces 8.3 Poor quality shrimp seeds as major factor for low shrimp 173 yield in extensive-improved shrimp farming 8.4 Use of shrimp seeds in SMS and RSS 176 8.5 Effect of shrimp seed quality on yield and profit 177 8.6 Variable costs by system and type of seeds 178 8.7 Seed demand in various shrimp production systems in the 181 coastal VMD in 2014 8.8 Infection rate of shrimp seeds detected by PCR testing in 181 Bac Lieu province 8.9 Mechanism of shrimp seed quality control for higher 183 economic efficiency 8.10 Structure of a public fund for shrimp seed 184 quality management 9.1 Flowchart for identifying policy gaps 191 9.2 Survey sites in the VMD 192 9.3 Land use in flood plain areas of Vietnamese Mekong Delta 194 9.4 Rice harvested area and production of provinces in the FPAs 196 9.5 The calendar of six cropping systems in An Giang and Dong 197 Thap provinces 9.6 Pesticide quantity applied under various rice systems in 209 An Giang and Dong Thap provinces 9.7 Farming systems distribution by planted areas in the FPAs 212 10.1 Cost structure of rice-prawn model 232 10.2 Potential farming models by household 233 List of Illustrations xi 10.3 Changes associated with rice-based aquaculture as perceived 233 by households 10.4 Production, investment costs and income of inland fisheries 235 10.5 Labor investments for fisheries by households 235 (days/HH/month) 10.6 Changes in fisheries resources as perceived by fishing 236 households 11.1 The flow of paddy rice in southeastern provinces