___________________________________________________________________________ 2013/ISOM/SYM/010 Session III Infrastructure Connectivity – Urgent Need and Long- Term Targets Submitted by: National University of Singapore APEC 2014 Symposium Beijing, China 9 December 2013 Infrastructure Connectivity – Urgent Need and Long- Term Targets* Dr Tan Khee Giap Chair, Singapore National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation Council Co-Director, Asia Competitiveness Institute at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore * Prepared for presentation at the “APEC 2014 SYMPOSIUM: Opportunities and Priorities”, organized by APEC China 2014, 9 December 2013, Beijing, China 1 GDP of China, Japan, United States and East Asia, 1980-2011 16 14 12 10 8 6 In Trillion Current Current USD In Trillion 4 2 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 United States East Asia Japan China Source: World Bank Database East Asia include China, Japan, South Korea, Chinese Taipei; Hong Kong, China; Singapore and ASEAN-4 economies (Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines) 2 1 The East Asian Model for Economic Development • The experience and success of the robust East Asian economic development have shown that releasing production bottlenecks through investing in a comprehensively planned infrastructure is a prerequisite condition for economic take-off and a useful support for sailing through the middle income trap. • Due to the relative massive capital required, the long gestation period and the longer- term nature of the returns on investment for infrastructure projects, cost of financing tends to be expensive and source of funding are also in keen competition with other fund commitments, there is thus an existing financial bottlenecks too. • Government must play a facilitating role in harnessing and promoting infrastructure investment, and for balance, sustainable and inclusive regional economic and social integration, both physical and soft infrastructure provision for greater connectivity are increasingly viewed as a form of regional public goods. • A longer-term roadmap for Asia-Pacific connectivity should be planned and stronger economies which have comparative advantage in terms of capital, technology and competitive skills should play an active role in meeting the pressing infrastructure bottlenecks which are causing growth inertia and imbalance regional development. 3 The Flying Geese Theory 6 2 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank • A recent proposal by President Xi Jinping in the Bali 2013 APEC Leaders Meeting on Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is an excellent idea and a proactive move which should be welcome! • In his proposal, it was stated that AIIB initiative aims to promote interconnectivity and economic integration in the region, including if not in particularly to the ASEAN region • Hence to cooperate with existing multilateral development banks to make full use of their respective advantages and jointly promote the sustained and stable growth of the Asian economy would be paramount 5 Scale of infrastructural investment needs in Asia is enormous and long-overdue • Slow and uneven economic recovery and pressures on fiscal budgets • In 2012, total Official Development Assistance package was about $125 US$8Trillion billion • Existing funds insufficient for the region’s needs infrastructure requirement from – ASEAN Infrastructure Fund: $485 2010-20 for Asia* million *Source: Study by ADB (2009) 6 3 Lack of bankable projects is the main bottleneck Estimated1 share of bankable projects & Infrastructure needs between 2010-2020 100% 50% - 60% Need to work on this pool of marginal projects 30% - 45% 5% - 10% (In US$) Asia 8 trn2) ~ 4-5 trn ~ 2-4 trn ~ 1 trn ASEAN ex 1 trn2) 500-600bn 300-450bn 50-100bn Singapore Selected3) ASEAN 600bn3) 300-350bn 200-300bn 30-60bn countries 1) Source: Anecdotal estimates from industry players and data from Project Finance International. 2) Source: ADB 7 3) Based on McKinsey’s assumption of opportunities for Singapore. Countries incl. Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. APEC committed to multi-year plan on infrastructure development • 2013 APEC Economic Leaders’ Declaration: “Under Physical Connectivity, we commit to cooperate in developing, maintaining and renewing our physical infrastructure through a Multi-year Plan on Infrastructure Development and Investment. The Plan will assist APEC Economies to improve the investment climate, promote public-private partnerships, and enhance government capacity and coordination in preparing, planning, prioritizing, structuring and executing infrastructure projects.” 8 4 Proposed Design Parameters for the AIIB 9 Prime Minister Lee of Singapore commented on the AIIB at the China-ASEAN Summit, 9 Oct 2013 • Singapore welcome the proposal to establish an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) • Scale of infrastructural investment needs in Asia over the next decade and beyond is enormous • World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ADB) and newly-established ASEAN Infrastructure Fund are working well with Asian countries to meet these needs • However, in view of the pressing needs to resolve production and financing bottlenecks, regional governments can do more and the AIIB will complement these organisations • It would be ideal if AIIB has an inclusive membership – Include member countries of ASEAN, and enable non-ASEAN countries to join too – Right profile of members and major investors ensures a strong credit rating for a new institution – An inclusive membership encourages participation of private sector funds subsequently • Singapore is open to participating in the AIIB the same way we participate in the ADB and ASEAN Infrastructure Fund 10 • Singapore looks forward to studying the details in partnership with ASEAN members 5 Invest in bankable projects • Ability to crowd in private sector investments over time – Bankable projects assessed based on (i) macroeconomic, legal and regulatory context; (ii) technical and environmental viability; (iii) economic and financial viability; (iv) project implementation and management capacity; and (v) overall risk profile. • AIIB can facilitate improvements to the regional legal and regulatory environment • With the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank already active in disbursing development grants, focusing on bankable infrastructure projects is an area where the AIIB can play a complementary and differentiated role. 11 Crowding in private sector participation • Act as a catalyst by lowering risk for the private sector to participate. – For example, AIIB can invest in mezzanine debt tranches or provide credit guarantee for project bonds etc. • Involve the private sector in financial/technical advisory and structuring work • Co-invest directly with the private sector into projects. – EIB for example only finances up to 50% of the total project cost, leveraging its capital with funding from private sector financial institutions • Leverage AIIB capital by raising bonds purchased by the private sector. The AIIB may issue bonds for its own financing after it has established some track record. 12 6 Complement other infrastructure initiatives and MDBs • Form cooperative institutional and operational links with the other MDBs – There is already an existing network of MDBs and they cooperate in the form of exchanges of information on their respective priorities and action plans; joint project appraisal missions; and co-financing projects. • The AIIB can structure their involvement in particular projects jointly with other MDBs. – E.g. the AIIB can consider providing loans while the other MDBs provide grants. • In the future, the AIIB can also complement the roles of some existing regional initiatives such as the ASEAN Infrastructure Fund (AIF) 13 Invest in Asia urbanisation • Asia is moving into an era of unprecedented urbanization – important to promote balanced and environmentally-sustainable urbanisation in the region. – By 2030, more than 55% of the population of Asia will be urban. Urbanisation can drive investment opportunities and contribute to the region’s growth. • E.g. Developing townships – Narrow the rural-urban gap and improve living conditions – AIIB can demonstrate early success with these projects, tapping on China and Singapore’s relevant experience 14 7 Focal areas in urban solutions • Green buildings • Urban greenery • Urban planning Built Envt & • Renewable energy • Green Transportation City Mgt • Intelligent Transport • Intelligent grid Systems management Urban Clean • Energy efficiency Mobility URBAN Energy SOLUTIONS URBAN SOLUTIONS • Waste and water • Telecommunications IT & Envt & treatment • Green IT Infocomm Water • Pollution control • E-Government • Carbon services Public Safety • Public safety • Homeland security • Command and control systems 15 Suggested steps for the PECC • Conduct comparative studies of MDBs/ existing infrastructure funds focusing on – Governance – Structure of investments – Good practices that the AIIB may adopt • Study ways for the AIIB to tap on private sector monies and on achieving the right credit standing 16 8 Thank you for your attention! 17 9.