The University of San Francisco USF Scholarship: a digital repository @ Gleeson Library | Geschke Center Master's Projects and Capstones Theses, Dissertations, Capstones and Projects Spring 5-20-2016 Northern San Francisco Bay Ecological Risk Assessment: Potential Crude by Rail Incident Meagan Bowis University of San Francisco, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.usfca.edu/capstone Part of the Environmental Health and Protection Commons, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons, Natural Resource Economics Commons, Natural Resources Management and Policy Commons, Oil, Gas, and Energy Commons, and the Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons Recommended Citation Bowis, Meagan, "Northern San Francisco Bay Ecological Risk Assessment: Potential Crude by Rail Incident" (2016). Master's Projects and Capstones. 340. https://repository.usfca.edu/capstone/340 This Project/Capstone is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses, Dissertations, Capstones and Projects at USF Scholarship: a digital repository @ Gleeson Library | Geschke Center. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Projects and Capstones by an authorized administrator of USF Scholarship: a digital repository @ Gleeson Library | Geschke Center. For more information, please contact [email protected]. This Master’s Project Northern San Francisco Bay Ecological Risk Assessment: Potential Crude by Rail Incident By Meagan Kane Bowis is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Environmental Management at the University of San Francisco Submitted: Received: …………………………………. ……………………………............ Meagan Bowis Date Allison Luengen, PhD Date Table of Contents List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. iii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ iv List of Appendices .......................................................................................................................... v List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................................... vi Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... vii Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Statement of Purpose ...................................................................................................................... 6 Oil Spill Trajectories and Degradation Models .............................................................................. 6 Methods......................................................................................................................................... 11 Results ........................................................................................................................................... 15 Discussion ..................................................................................................................................... 19 Ecological Risk Assessment ......................................................................................................... 24 Oil Toxicity ................................................................................................................................... 24 Methods......................................................................................................................................... 25 Results ........................................................................................................................................... 26 Discussion ..................................................................................................................................... 27 Response Options.......................................................................................................................... 32 Natural Recovery .......................................................................................................................... 33 On-Water Mechanical Recovery ................................................................................................... 36 Alternative Response Technologies .............................................................................................. 38 Dispersants............................................................................................................................. 38 In situ Burning ....................................................................................................................... 41 Bioremediation ...................................................................................................................... 44 Shoreline cleanup .......................................................................................................................... 46 End Points ..................................................................................................................................... 47 Costs .............................................................................................................................................. 48 Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund ....................................................................................................... 48 Response Costs ............................................................................................................................. 49 Environmental Remediation Costs ............................................................................................... 50 Management Recommendations ................................................................................................... 52 i Response Method Recommendation............................................................................................. 53 Preparation .................................................................................................................................... 55 Prevention ..................................................................................................................................... 56 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 57 Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................... 62 Conflicts of Interest....................................................................................................................... 62 Literature Cited ............................................................................................................................. 63 Appendices .................................................................................................................................... 70 ii List of Tables Table 1. Summary of larger crude by rail spills carrying Bakken crude oil in North America. ..... 2 Table 2. Physical properties of Bakken crude oil. .......................................................................... 7 Table 3. Size classes of oil discharges by response zone. ............................................................ 11 Table 4. Inputs into the TAP II model. ......................................................................................... 13 Table 5. Information added to ADIOS model. ............................................................................. 15 Table 6. Bakken crude oil weathering percentages after a 100,000-gallon spill from the Union Pacific Railroad Bridge. ................................................................................................. 18 Table 7. Bakken crude oil weathering totals after a 100,000-gallon spill from the Union Pacific Railroad Bridge. .............................................................................................................. 18 Table 8. Heavy Fuel oil physical impacts from a 100,000-gallon discharge originating at the Martinez refinery. .......................................................................................................... 21 Table 9. Sensitive sites in the Suisun Bay and San Pablo Bay. .................................................... 26 Table 10. Oil spill response options for onshore recovery for a brackish marsh and on-water recovery for bays and estuaries for diesel or light crude oil response. .......................... 33 Table 11. Shore types maximum oil thickness capacity and the natural removal time. ............... 34 Table 12. Acute and chronic effects of oil from the Exxon Valdez oil spill.. .............................. 35 Table 13. Lower limitations of mechanical recovery equipment. ................................................ 37 Table 14. Ideal dispersant application conditions. ........................................................................ 41 Table 15. Ideal in situ burn conditions.......................................................................................... 44 Table 16. Reported response effectiveness. .................................................................................. 48 Table 17. Cleanup cost estimation of primary response techniques