WHERE ARE THE POLISH-GERMAN RELATIONS HEADING? THE 30TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE TREATY OF GOOD NEIGHBOURSHIP AND FRIENDLY COOPERATION — SPECIAL REPORT — SZYMON BACHRYNOWSKI, PHD 2021/01/22 WHERE ARE THE POLISH-GERMAN RELATIONS HEADING? THE 30TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE TREATY OF GOOD NEIGHBOURSHIP AND FRIENDLY COOPERATION y The Polish-German relations at the turn of 2020-2021, although marked by a difficult history, sometimes even by mutual misunder- standing, are relatively correct now. This is thanks to good personal relations between Polish and German politicians (presidents and heads of government) and very good economic relations. Germany is a key trade partner for Poland. y Geography still determines foreign policy directions, even though globalisation has reduced the role of the geographical factor in international relations. The geostrategic dimension makes the relations with Germany crucial for Poland, especially if we take into account Poland’s other big neighbour, Russia. y There is a long list of challenges to overcome in the Polish-German relations, such as geopolitics (the construction of Nord Stream 2, the mutual attitude towards Russia), the issue of the Polish minority in Germany and possible reparations (a politically controversial and difficult topic), the future of Germany and Poland’s role in the European Union. y Poland’s scepticism towards Germany’s federalist ideas about Europe may cause frequent tensions between Berlin and Warsaw, especially as Germany has become accustomed to the fact that Poland acted as its supporter during a major part of its EU member- ship. It can be assumed, however, that Poland’s attitude towards Germany will become more assertive as Warsaw’s political and geo-economic power grows stronger. 2 Special Report www.warsawinstitute.org WHERE ARE THE POLISH-GERMAN RELATIONS HEADING? THE 30TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE TREATY OF GOOD NEIGHBOURSHIP AND FRIENDLY COOPERATION SOURCE: PUBLIC DOMAIN Determinants of the German-Polish relations Poland’s bilateral relations with Germany (since its relations. The geographical position of Poland makes reunification in October 1990) have been treated as it crucial to ensure correct and equal relations with a priority in Polish foreign policy. For Poland, the Germany, especially taking into account Poland’s Federal Republic of Germany is not only the most other big neighbour, the Russian Federation. Thus, important neighbour but also an essential NATO despite the changing alignments, the challenge for ally and the most important economic partner. The Poland is still to define itself between Russia and importance of relations with Germany is also a con- Germany in the new times of the third decade of sequence of Poland’s participation in the European the 21st century. Union. Germany remains the demographically, economically and politically strongest EU state, in Germany, as the largest EU state and, at the same practice being its leader together with France. The time, a state with ambitions to play the role of at attitude towards Germany and the need to establish least a regional power, will perceive Poland’s position adequate relations with Germany result not only through the prism of its own goals. Two problems from specific challenges, but mainly from the geo- in this area may arise in the near future. The first political location of Poland. may be Poland’s wait-and-see position in the EU and the fact that Poland – unlike the pre-2015 In the Polish-German relations, it is still geography period – will not support German interests at all that determines foreign policy directions, even costs. Consequently, Poland’s lack of support for though globalisation has effectively minimised its western neighbour’s ideas on Europe may cause the role of the geographical factor in international tensions between the two countries, especially as www.warsawinstitute.org Special Report 3 WHERE ARE THE POLISH-GERMAN RELATIONS HEADING? THE 30TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE TREATY OF GOOD NEIGHBOURSHIP AND FRIENDLY COOPERATION Germany has been accustomed to Poland’s support during the major part of Poland’s EU membership The key challenge will be to direct (since 1 May 2004). It can be assumed that Warsaw’s attitude towards Berlin will become increasingly Polish foreign policy in such a way assertive as Poland’s political and economic strength as to avoid a clash with Berlin’s increases. The relation between both states, with Poland gradually strengthening its position (which policy, but at the same time taking is facilitated by the integration projects in Central a pragmatic approach to Polish and Eastern Europe), may become more and more competitive. interests. Therefore, the second problem may turn out to be The indicated potential problems in bilateral relations Poland’s active foreign policy within the Three Seas between Warsaw and Berlin will become more and Initiative, and at the same time the fact that after 2018 more real if Germany continues to abandon the Germany has expressed its interest in the initiative rhetoric of post-war reconciliation, which was pre- despite its previous passive attitude. Berlin’s support vailing in relations between the two countries since for the Three Seas Initiative undoubtedly raises its the 1990s. However, the three decades of Poland’s importance. However, the reasons for Berlin’s stance transformation, and the resulting dynamic economic remain unclear, and they may include: the USA’s development, translated into an increase in Poland’s involvement in the project and the desire to “outdo” activity on the international arena, which inevitably Washington; an excessive, from Germany’s point of could have interfered with Germany’s ambitions 1. view, strengthening of Poland’s position in the region, As a result, the key challenge will be to direct Polish which appears to be the natural leader of the Three foreign policy in such a way as to avoid a clash Seas Initiative, and if Germany joins in, this position with Berlin’s policy, but at the same time taking a could change; the fear of losing German influence pragmatic approach to Polish interests, which over in the region; and the fear of weakening the EU on time may or may not become less and less convergent its eastern flank. with German interests. 1. Por. M. Staniszewski, Wyjść z cienia hegemona, „Fundacja Republikańska” from 9.12.2020, https://fundacjarepublikanska.org/wyjsc-z-cienia- -hegemona/ / [accessed: 10.12.2020]. 4 Special Report www.warsawinstitute.org WHERE ARE THE POLISH-GERMAN RELATIONS HEADING? THE 30TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE TREATY OF GOOD NEIGHBOURSHIP AND FRIENDLY COOPERATION SOURCE: CHANCELLERY OF THE PRIME MINISTER The current agenda of Polish-German relations The agenda of the bilateral Polish-German cooper- ation should include two general groups of issues, An agreement between Berlin and i.e., bilateral relations and relations within the EU. It should be pointed out that the group of EU affairs, Warsaw is crucial for the success of in particular, is becoming more and more important nowadays (all the more so as Ursula von der Leyen, any institutional reform of the EU. a German and a former defence minister in Angela Merkel’s government, is the president of the European by disagreements over the rule of law in countries Commission). It seems that an agreement between such as Poland, Hungary and Romania. However, Berlin and Warsaw is crucial for the success of any the intergovernmental and parliamentary dialogue institutional reform of the EU. It would represent a between Poland and Germany should also include compromise between the aspirations of the so-called a broad catalogue of bilateral issues. Here, issues “old Union” (comprising the states from before the such as the legal and factual situation of the Polish 2004 enlargement) and the “new Union” (the states minority in Germany, problems with the Jugendamt of Eastern, Central and Southern Europe). The (i.e. excessive interference in the parental authority, tension between the two “Unions” has long been often affecting Polish citizens in Germany), the his- visible and was the most extremely represented torical policy of both countries, and joint activities for www.warsawinstitute.org Special Report 5 WHERE ARE THE POLISH-GERMAN RELATIONS HEADING? THE 30TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE TREATY OF GOOD NEIGHBOURSHIP AND FRIENDLY COOPERATION the protection of the natural environment, especially Poland, which consistently advocates the stabiliza- in the Baltic Sea area, can be addressed. Apart from tion of the region, needs to be strongly articulated. the mentioned issues, the Ukrainian affairs and, There are many fields for a German-Polish dialogue above all, the role of Russia in the region of Central and for taking joint actions as well as challenges in and Eastern Europe could also be on the agenda our mutual relations. without making any arrangements. The position of Disputes – a catalogue of unresolved issues There are several unresolved problems or, more of signs with two names of these places – currently, broadly, challenges in the Polish-German relations, there are over 350 of them. Meanwhile, 2 million which Polish politicians and diplomats should focus Poles in Germany are not recognised by the law as on. June 17, 2021, is the day of the 30th anniversary a national minority. It is significant that the status of of the “Treaty on Good Neighbourship and Friendly the national minority was taken away from Poles in Cooperation” signed by Poland and Germany, which 1940 by the Nazi authorities, who also seized all the complemented and developed the Border Treaty property of Polish organizations. In November 2014, concluded on November 14, 1990 2. It would be The German Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected the advisable to thoroughly analyse both documents request to recognize, formally register and restore in order to clarify some of the treaty provisions the deprived Polish minority rights. that have not been fulfilled until now. The most important unfulfilled provision is the question of Poles are also very sceptical about the Jugendamt’s the position and rights of Poles in Germany.