24 November 2005 PRICE | $1.10 Regional Express Holdings Ltd | REX Analyst | Ken Fleming Initiating coverage (613) 6224 8511 [email protected] Max Wheeler Key points (613) 6224 8511 REX listed on the ASX on 9 November 2005, with a market capitalisation of $115M. Fully diluted shares The Prospectus valuation multiples suggested a PER of 7.6X this year on issue | 115M (A-IFRS) and enterprise multiple of 3.1x. REX provides regional airline passenger services and the 50% stake in Pel-Air allows it to also provide airfreight services. Pel-Air offers a number of opportunities for REX including a more stable earnings profile, substantial cost synergies and access to facilities that it can use to launch additional passenger services. Its fundamentals outpace any comparable airline in Australia by a big stretch and match some of the best arithmetic on offer overseas. Performance & Valuation Comment Last Price | $1.10 REX has monopoly control over 60% of its routes (due in part to State Government edicts). The economics and history of regional airlines in 52 wk hi/low | $1.11 / $0.95 Australia shows a clear case of market failure which can only be 12 mth price target3 | $1.53 redressed by Government intervention. Valuation | $1.33 Of the 33 routes in the REX network, 21 are serviced by REX alone. Valuation methodology | DCF The company has enjoyed substantial increases in traffic since its inception and it has a highly coveted 540+ weekly slots available to it at Sydney Airport (where restrictions make access times highly valued). It achieves load factors above 65% (and well above 70% on some routes) and has leverage to population shifts away from the cities. Share price performance Investment View Our arithmetic on an actual tax-paid, puts REX on a PER of 6.4x this year. This compares with QAN on 11.8x. There are risks associated with airlines and there has been a confluence of negative factors undermining airline prosperity in recent years – drought, SARS, collapse of Ansett and 9/11. We believe risks still remain but would argue that REX has a balance sheet and business strategy that will allow it to meet these excesses head on and they are well and truly factored into the modest forecast multiples. Earnings Summary Y/E Jun 2005A 2006F 2007F REX versus SP/ASX200 Revenue - A$M 137.1 146.6 155.9 EBITDA - A$M 16.2 23.8 28.2 NPAT (reported) A$M 13.5 19.7 18.5 NPAT (normalised) A$M1 13.5 19.7 18.5 EPS (diluted) - cents2 16.9 17.1 16.1 EPS (diluted) - % chg n/a 1.6 (6.4) PER (diluted) - x2 6.5 6.4 6.9 DPS - cents 0.0 0.0 4.0 Dividend Yield - % 0.0 0.0 3.6 Franking - % 0 0 35 Notes: 1. Normalised earnings is pre goodwill, amortization and after adding back non-recurring items. 2. Based on normalized earnings. 3. Price target is calculated by moving current valuation one year forward. Page 1│41 Final results analysis & outlook Regional Express Holdings Ltd│24 November 2005 Valuation Year end Jun 2005A 2006F 2007F 1 Methodology: DCF Profit & Loss Summary | A$M Key assumptions Operating revenue 137.1 146.6 155.9 Beta 1.3 Invest & other income 0.0 0.0 0.0 WACC|% 11.2 EBITDA 16.2 23.8 28.2 Forecast period|years 10.0 Risk premium|% 5.5 Depreciation/Amort (3.8) (4.2) (7.7) PV cash flows|$M 143.4 EBIT 12.4 19.6 20.5 less net debt/(add cash)|$M (9.4) Net Interest (0.7) 0.7 1.7 add equity adjustments2 0.0 Total 152.8 Pre-tax profit 11.7 19.5 22.2 Fully diluted shares on issue|M2 115.0 Tax expense 0.0 (1.6) (6.7) Value per share|$ 1.33 Minorities/Assoc./Prefs 1.8 1.8 2.9 NPAT 13.5 19.7 18.5 Return on invested capital Non recurring items 0.0 0.0 0.0 Reported profit 13.5 19.7 18.5 add goodwill/non recurring 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adjusted profit 13.5 19.7 18.5 Cashflow Summary | A$M EBITDA 16.2 23.8 28.2 Working capital changes 0.0 (0.5) (0.1) Interest and tax (0.6) (0.9) (2.3) Other operating items (21.5) 0.0 0.0 Operating cashflow (5.9) 22.4 25.8 Required capex (15.1) (5.1) (5.5) Ratio analysis Maintainable cashflow (21.0) 17.3 20.3 Year end Jun 05A 06F 07F Revenue growth|% 0.0 6.9 6.4 Dividends/Other 0.0 0.0 (2.3) EBITDA growth|% n/a 47.0 18.3 Acq/Disp 6.4 (30.1) 0.0 EBITDA margin|% 11.8 16.2 18.1 Other investing items 4.2 0.0 0.0 EBIT margin|% 9.0 13.4 13.1 Free cashflow (10.4) (12.8) 18.0 Tax rate|% 0.0 8.0 30.0 Equity 0.0 35.0 0.0 ROA|% 31.0 24.3 19.8 Debt inc/(red'n) 4.6 (22.2) (18.0) ROE|% 96.8 36.0 22.5 Net debt/equity|% 0.5 (30.1) (44.8) Balance Sheet | A$M Net interest cover|x 17.7 NaN n/a Cash & deposits 4.5 22.6 40.6 Capex to deprec'n|% 397.4 122.2 70.9 Inventories 3.0 3.4 3.6 NTA per share|$ 0.23 0.64 0.78 Trade debtors 7.3 7.4 7.3 Other curr assets 4.5 4.5 4.5 Multiple analysis Total current assets 19.3 37.9 56.0 Year end Jun 05A 06F 07F Prop., plant & equip. 24.5 55.5 53.3 Market cap|M 125 Net debt (cash)|$M (9.4) Non-curr intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 Options|$M 0.0 Non-curr investments 1.9 3.7 6.6 Enterprise value|$M 116.0 Other non-curr assets 4.6 4.6 4.6 EV/EBITDA|x 7.2 4.9 4.1 Total assets 50.3 101.7 120.5 EPS|c 16.9 17.1 16.1 Trade creditors 12.4 12.4 12.5 P/E|x 6.5 6.4 6.9 Curr borrowings 0.5 0.5 0.5 Cashflow / Share|c (7.4) 19.5 22.4 Other curr liabilities 13.5 14.3 16.9 Price / NTA|x 4.7 1.7 1.4 Total current liab. 26.4 27.2 29.8 Shares outstanding Borrowings 4.1 0.0 0.0 Year end Jun 05A 06F 07F Other non-curr liabilities 1.2 1.2 1.2 Basic|M 80.0 115.0 115.0 Total liabilities 31.7 28.4 31.0 Other|M 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minorities/Convertibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fully diluted|M 80.0 115.0 115.0 Shareholders equity 18.6 73.3 89.5 Notes: 1. Discounted cash flow. 2. Equity adjustments and shares on issue include all notes and options on issue (if in the money or deemed appropriate). Page 2│41 Final results analysis & outlook Regional Express Holdings Ltd│24 November 2005 Year end Jun 2005A 2006F 2007F Divisional Summary|A$M Revenue Division 1 137.1 146.6 155.9 EBITDA Division 1 16.2 23.8 28.2 Margin|% Division 1 11.8 16.2 18.1 Page 3│41 Regional Express Holdings Ltd│24 November 2005 1 | SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Regional monopolies protected Maintaining skilled labour by Government legislation. In an industry that has serial Excellent track record at a time issues, most of which have when fundamentals were significant and negative negative. implications for REX. Exposed to regional centres Exposed to CASA edicts for which are gaining from safety upgrades. population drift. Limited pricing power. No debt and capacity to buy aircraft on much more attractive Exposed to pricing policies of terms than lease. airport owners. De-risked though acquisition of more stable earnings steam (Pel-Air). Substantial holder of “slots” at Sydney Airport. Partnership with the bush. Strong brand recognition. Experienced workforce. Opportunities Threats Opportunities through charter Higher oil prices. and expansion using Pel-Air airport facilities. Usual suspects – drought, bird flu pandemic, terrorism. Defence contracts (Pel-Air). Predatory competitors. Opening up of NSW Government ticketing for government New competitors; airport pricing employees. models. Continuing (and arguably) non- New routes (potentially Queensland). commercial edicts imposed by CASA and DOTARS. Cost savings through merging Pel-Air. NSW Government policy change on mandated one carrier, Industry consolidation (balance routes. sheet muscle), as well as other offshore opportunities. Page 4│41 Regional Express Holdings Ltd│24 November 2005 2 | Overview Preamble Yes, it is an airline… Yes, it is an airline. This is usually the point where most investors roll their eyes and remind you of 9/11, SARS, drought, terrorism and possible bird flu pandemic. And that makes for a very interesting debate, some of which may be relevant but most of which is academic and no more than a distraction. But you only pay 6.4x current Yes it is an airline, but that is why you pay 6.4x current year earnings and year earnings not 16x (market average). Yes it is an airline, but it is not exposed to the highly competitive trunk route corridors in Australia (namely, the east coast and where Impulse airlines got caught in a territorial price war back in 2000) and the aircraft do not venture outside of Australian airspace.