ISSN 2500-2597 2020 FORESIGHT Vol.14 No 4 AND STI GOVERNANCE JOURNAL OF THE NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS SPECIAL ISSUE STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF DYNAMIC COMPLEXITY INNOVATION UNCERTAINTY FORESIGHT SCENARIOS DISRUPTION COMPLEX SYSTEMS VOLATILITY CHALLENGES KNOWLEDGE AMBIGUITY NETWORKS HORIZONS FUTURES STRATEGY MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY 4.0 GOVERNANCE CIRCULAR ECONOMY ABOUT THE JOURNAL Foresight and STI Governance is an international interdisciplinary peer-reviewed open- access journal. It publishes original research articles, offering new theoretical insights and practice-oriented knowledge in important areas of strategic planning and the creation of science, technology, and innovation (STI) policy, and it examines possible and alternative futures in all human endeavors in order to make such insights available to the right person at the right time to ensure the right decision. The journal acts as a scientific forum, contributing to the interaction between researchers, policy makers, and other actors involved in innovation processes. It encompasses all facets of STI policy and the creation of technological, managerial, product, and social innovations. Foresight and STI Governance welcomes works from scholars based in all parts of the world. Topics covered include: • Foresight methodologies and best practices; • Long-term socioeconomic priorities for strategic planning and policy making; • Innovative strategies at the national, regional, sectoral, and corporate levels; • The development of National Innovation Systems; • The exploration of the innovation lifecycle from idea to market; • Technological trends, breakthroughs, and grand challenges; • Technological change and its implications for economy, policy-making, and society; • Corporate innovation management; • Human capital in STI; and many others. The target audience of the journal comprises research scholars, university professors, post- graduates, policy-makers, business people, the expert community, undergraduates, and others who are interested in S&T and innovation analyses, foresight studies, and policy issues. Foresight and STI Governance is published quarterly and distributed worldwide. It is an open-access electronic journal and is available online for free via: https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/ The journal is included into the INDEXING AND ABSTRACTING 1st quartile (Q1) of the Scopus TM WEB OF SCIENCE Cite Score Rank in the fields: CORE COLLECTION EMERGING SOURCES RESEARCH PAPERS CITATION INDEX Economics, IN ECONOMICS Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) Decision Sciences (miscellaneous) FORESIGHT AND STI GOVERNANCE National Research University Higher School of Economics Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge EDITORIAL COUNCIL Editor-in-Chief — Leonid Gokhberg, First Vice-Rector, Аndrey Belousov, Government of the Russian Federation HSE, and Director, ISSEK, HSE, Russian Federation Cristiano Cagnin, EU Joint Research Centre, Belgium Jonathan Calof, University of Ottawa, Canada, and HSE, Russian Deputy Editor-in-Chief — Alexander Sokolov, HSE, Federation Russian Federation Elias Carayannis, George Washington University, United States Mario Cervantes, OECD, France EDITORIAL BOARD Alexander Chepurenko, HSE, Russian Federation atiana Kuznetsova, HSE, Russian Federation Tugrul Daim, Portland State University, United States, and HSE, Russian Federation Dirk Meissner, HSE, Russian Federation Charles Edquist, Lund University, Sweden Yury Simachev, HSE, Russian Federation Ted Fuller, University of Lincoln, UK Thomas Thurner, HSE, Russian Federation Fred Gault, Maastricht University, Netherlands Benoit Godin, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS), Canada EDITORIAL STAFF Luke Georghiou, University of Manchester, United Kingdom Karel Haegeman, EU Joint Research Centre (JRC) Executive Editor — Marina Boykova Development Manager — Nataliya Gavrilicheva Attila Havas, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Hungary Literary Editors — Yakov Okhonko, Caitlin Montgomery Proofreader — Ekaterina Malevannaya ichael Keenan, OECD, France Designer — Mariya Salzmann Yaroslav Kuzminov, HSE, Russian Federation Layout — Mikhail Salazkin Keun Lee, Seoul National University, Korea Carol S. Leonard, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Loet Leydesdorff, University of Amsterdam, Netherlands Address: Jonathan Linton, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom, and National Research University Higher School of Economics HSE, Russian Federation 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russia Sandro Mendonca, Lisbon University, Portugal Tel: +7 (495) 621-40-38 Ian Miles, University of Manchester, United Kingdom, and E-mail: [email protected] HSE, Russian Federation Rongping Mu, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese http://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/ Academy of Sciences, China Fred Phillips, University of New Mexico and Stony Brook University — State University of New York, United States Periodicity — quarterly Wolfgang Polt, Joanneum Research, Austria Ozcan Saritas, HSE, Russian Federation ISSN 2500-2597 Klaus Schuch, Centre for Social Innovation, Austria ISSN 2312-9972 (online) Philip Shapira, University of Manchester, UK, and Georgia Institute ISSN 1995-459X (Russian print version) of Technology, United States Alina Sorgner, John Cabot University, Italy, and Kiel Institute for Publisher: the World Economy, Germany National Research University Nicholas Vonortas, George Washington University, United States, and Higher School of Economics HSE, Russian Federation Angela Wilkinson, World Energy Council and University of © National Research University Oxford, United Kingdom Higher School of Economics, 2020 2020 Vol. 14 No 1 FORESIGHT AND STI GOVERNANCE 3 Strategies NOTES FOR AUTHORS Before submitting your article, please prepare your manuscript using the following guidelines: Аrticles should be topical and original, should outline tasks (issues), describe the key results of the author’s research and his/her conclusions; Manuscripts are to be submitted via e-mail: [email protected] Format All files should be submitted as a Word document. The text should be in Times New Roman 14 pt, 1.5 spaced and fit to the width, all margins should be 20 mm. Article Length Articles should be between 20000 and 60000 characters (incl. spaces). Optimal size is 40 000 characters. Article Title To be submitted in native language and English. A title of not more than eight words should be provided. Author Details (in English and native language) Details should be supplied on the Article Title Page, including: • Full name of each author • Position, rank, academic degree • Affiliation of each author, at the time the research was completed • Full postal address of the affiliation • E-mail address of each author Abstract Аn abstract should be: informative (no general words), original, relevant (reflects your paper’s key content and research findings); structured (follows the logics of the results presented in the paper), concise (between 250 and 300 words). • Purpose (mandatory) • Design/methodology/approach (mandatory) • Findings (mandatory) • Research limitations/implications (if applicable) • Practical implications (if applicable) • Social implications (if applicable) • Originality/value (mandatory) It is appropriate to describe the research methods/methodology if they are original or of interest for this particular research. For papers concerned with experimental work describe your data sources and data processing techniques. Describe your results as precisely and informatively as possible. Include your key theoretical and experimental results, factual information, and any interconnections and patterns shown. Give special priority in your abstract to new results and data with long-term impact, important discoveries and verified findings that contradict previous theories as well as data that you think have practical value. Conclusions could be associated with recommendations, estimates, suggestions, and hypotheses described in the paper. Information contained in the title should not be dublicated in the abstract . Try to avoid unnecessary introductory phrases (e.g. ‘the author of the paper considers…’). Use language typical of research and technical documents to compile your abstract and avoid complex grammatical constructions. The text of the abstract should include the key words of the paper. Keywords Please provide up to 10 keywords on the Article Title Page, which encapsulate the principal topics of the paper. Headings Headings must be concise, with a clear indication of the distinction between the hierarchy of headings. Figures All figures should be of high quality, legible, and numbered consecutively with arabic numerals. All figures (charts, diagrams, line drawings, web pages/screenshots, and photographic images) should be submitted in electronic form preferably in color as separate files, that match the following parameters: Photo images — JPEG or TIFF format. Minimum resolution 300 dpi, image size not less than 1000x1000 pix Charts, diagrams, line drawings — EXCEL or EPS format 44 ОСА .. 1414 №№ 34 20202020 CONTENTS SPECIAL ISSUE “STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF DYNAMIC COMPLEXITY” О ЕА System Theory Approach as a Basis of Strategic Management Introductory article by the editor of the special issue Helena Knyazeva 6 STRATEGIС FORESIGHT Technology Foresight and Sustainable Innovation Development in the Complex Dynamical Systems View Klaus Mainzer 10 Uncertainties, Knowledge, and Futures in Foresight