Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: The Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2 Task 3.1: Screening for Vulnerability U.S. Department of Transportation June 2014 Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2 FHWA-HEP-14-033 Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2—Task 3.1: Screening for Vulnerability Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure The Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2 Screening for Vulnerability Final Report, Task 3.1 Prepared for: The U.S. DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting Project managed by: Office of Planning, Environment, and Realty Federal Highway Administration, U.S. DOT Robert Hyman, Robert Kafalenos, Brian Beucler Prepared by: ICF International 1725 Eye Street, NW Washington, DC 20006 Date: June 2014 Contract No.: GS-10F-0124J Report No.: FHWA-HEP-14-033 U.S. Department of Transportation i June 2014 Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2—Task 3.1: Screening for Vulnerability Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance from the following for providing data and/or guidance with this report: The Mobile Metropolitan Planning Organization’s Climate Change Work Group The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Gulf Coast Phase 2 Technical Advisory Committee Local experts on Highways: Kevin Harrison and Tom Piper of the Southern Alabama Regional Planning Commission; Lee Reach, Don Powell, Eric Christie, and Ken Owens of the Alabama Department of Transportation; Ricky Mitchell and Tina Sanchez, Mobile County; Nick Amberger of the City of Mobile Local experts on Ports: Bob Harris and Terry Gilbreath of the Alabama State Port Authority; Walter Meigs of BAE Systems, Larry Hill of Shell; Helen Bush and Dave Harris of Evonik; Mike Buckley of Hunt Refining; Ken Kujala of Austal; Carl Dyess of USACE; Patrick Fink of NOAA Local experts on Airports: Thomas Hughes, Paul Faggard, and Andrew Pabst of the Mobile Airport Authority Local experts on Rail: Mike Russell of the Alabama State Port Authority (terminal rail); Charles Bailey of CSX Rail Local experts on Transit: Gerald Alfred and George Bryant of the WAVE Transit Local and national experts on Pipelines: Mark Falkenhagen of Spectra Energy; Peter Keegan of Mobile Gas; Riley Jackson of Southern Union Gas Company; Forrest Waldrop of Boardwalk Pipeline Partners; Brady McNew and Greg Gaither of Williams; Wallace Jones, Alabama Public Service Commission; Mark Barlow; Roger Litter and Piyali Talukdar of the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration We also gratefully acknowledge the time and effort provided by the peer reviewers of this report: Jeff Arnold, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; Elaine Wilkinson, Gulf Coast Regional Planning Commission; and Skip Paul, Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development. Principal Authors and Reviewers (in alphabetical order) Anne Choate, Chris Evans, Beth Rodehorst, Ricardo Saavedra, Cassandra Snow, and John Snyder of ICF International; Robert Hyman, Robert Kafalenos, and Brian Beucler of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Other Contributing Authors (in alphabetical order) Zac Andereck, Miyuki Hino, Dr. Rawlings Miller, Thuy Phung, Emily Rowan, and Dr. Peter Schultz of ICF International Chris Dorney, Michael Flood, and Dr. Michael Meyer of Parsons Brinckerhoff Dr. Scott Douglass and Dr. Bret Webb of South Coast Engineers Cover photo credits: ICF International U.S. Department of Transportation i June 2014 Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2—Task 3.1: Screening for Vulnerability Contents 1. Summary for Policymakers ....................................................................................................1 1.1 Introduction and Purpose ...............................................................................................1 1.1.1 Transportation Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: A Need for Streamlined Methodologies ...................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Using this Methodology in Other Analyses .............................................................. 3 1.1.3 Building on Mobile-Specific Findings ...................................................................... 4 1.2 Key Lessons Learned in Evaluating Vulnerability Using an Indicators Approach ........................................................................................................................4 1.3 Key Findings in Mobile .................................................................................................9 1.3.1 Overall Vulnerabilities of the Transportation System ............................................. 11 1.3.2 Overview of Vulnerabilities of Critical Highway Segments .................................. 22 1.3.3 Overview of Vulnerabilities of Critical Ports ......................................................... 29 1.3.4 Overview of Vulnerabilities of Critical Airports .................................................... 36 1.3.5 Overview of Vulnerabilities of Critical Rail Segments .......................................... 38 1.3.6 Overview of Vulnerabilities of Critical Transit Facilities ....................................... 42 2. Background ............................................................................................................................45 2.1 Overview of Gulf Coast Study .....................................................................................45 2.2 Purpose of the Vulnerability Screen ............................................................................49 2.3 Report Roadmap ..........................................................................................................50 3. Overview of Approach ...........................................................................................................52 3.1 Key Components of Vulnerability ...............................................................................52 3.2 Developing Climate Narratives ....................................................................................53 3.2.1 Purpose .................................................................................................................... 53 3.2.2 Development of Narratives ..................................................................................... 54 3.3 Identifying Representative Segments ..........................................................................58 3.3.1 Representative Highway Segments ......................................................................... 59 3.3.2 Representative Rail Segments ................................................................................. 60 3.3.3 Representative Pipeline Segments .......................................................................... 60 3.3.4 Final Group of Assets Studied ................................................................................ 60 3.4 Refining Assessment based on Asset Components and Lifetime ................................64 3.5 Using an Indicators Approach for Evaluating Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity .................................................................................................66 3.5.1 Introduction to the Indicator-Based Vulnerability Assessment .............................. 66 3.5.2 Selecting Indicators ................................................................................................. 67 3.5.3 Sources of Data to Evaluate Indicators ................................................................... 68 3.5.4 Calculating Vulnerability Scores ............................................................................ 69 4. Methodology for Evaluating Vulnerability .........................................................................73 4.1 Evaluating Exposure ....................................................................................................74 4.2 Evaluating Sensitivity ..................................................................................................78 4.2.1 Highways Sensitivity Indicators ............................................................................. 78 4.2.2 Ports Sensitivity Indicators ..................................................................................... 90 4.2.3 Airports Sensitivity Indicators ................................................................................ 98 4.2.4 Rail Sensitivity Indicators ..................................................................................... 109 4.2.5 Transit Sensitivity Indicators ................................................................................ 117 U.S. Department of Transportation ii June 2014 Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2—Task 3.1: Screening for Vulnerability 4.3 Evaluating Adaptive Capacity ...................................................................................125 4.3.1 Highways Adaptive Capacity Indicators ............................................................... 126 4.3.2 Ports Adaptive Capacity Indicators ....................................................................... 128 4.3.3 Airports Adaptive Capacity Indicators .................................................................. 130 4.3.4 Rail Adaptive Capacity Indicators ........................................................................ 132 4.3.5 Transit Adaptive Capacity Indicators .................................................................... 134 5. Detailed Vulnerability Results ............................................................................................137 5.1 Highways Results.......................................................................................................137