CHANGING TRACK: THE FUTURE OF RAIL Integrated, seamless and passenger-centric railways for the UK 2 CHANGING TRACK: THE FUTURE OF RAIL PREFACE: THE WORLD HAS CHANGED - AND SO MUST RAIL 3 The World has changed - and so must rail Since we first published this report, the world has 2. Centre on customers. changed beyond all recognition. The COVID-19 outbreak COVID-19 has less of an impact on freight, but a rail CONTENTS and subsequent national lockdowns have transformed system without any passengers on it – as we’ve witnessed the way we travel and brought extraordinary commercial, in recent months – is a sad and soulless thing. And yet this operational and passenger implications. will be the future unless we can focus on what passengers want: making travel a frictionless, enjoyable experience In the UK, the franchises have all been effectively that’s safe and hygienic. FOREWORD: RAIL IN 2050 4 nationalised, with little certainty of how the future system will look. Internationally, the commercial model 3. Foster innovation and an experimental approach. CHANGING TRACK, TODAY 6 that underpins rail – that of high-volume shifting of The rail system has relied too much on itself to be the people for a relatively low cost – appears unsustainable only credible provider of some services – for example, the TRENDS SHAPING THE FUTURE 10 in the medium-term as fewer passengers travel. commuter lines into cities. This is no longer the case, with And the experience of passengers themselves will the wider adoption of remote working giving passengers FUTUREWORLDSTM FOR RAIL 14 be transformed, with stations and trains maintaining choice. So, we have an obligation to innovate – to experiment social distancing, passengers remaining anxious and provide services that customers love while becoming FIVE STEPS TO TRANSFORM RAIL FOR TOMORROW 22 about travel and likely to travel less, and an unstable adaptable enough to survive the next system shock. commuting market. 4. Drive decisions and value through data. 1. UNITE BEHIND A CLEAR, LONG-TERM VISION 24 While any future-gazing is difficult to detail, there are We know the rail system will be different post-COVID-19 and 2. CENTRE ON CUSTOMERS 26 three predictions we can make with some confidence: tough decisions will be required. Those decisions need to be grounded in fact so we can make them confidently. Rail needs • there will be more government intervention in the rail to invest significantly in its ability to access data quickly and 3. FOSTER INNOVATION AND AN EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH 30 market, not less. With falling demand, the rail system effectively to make decisions about operations, commercial will be unable to cover its costs without significant models and services to customers. And these decisions are 4. DRIVE DECISIONS AND VALUE THROUGH DATA 32 government support coming soon, so we need to build the culture of evidence- 5. ADOPT THE MINDSET TO ADAPT AND THRIVE 34 • passenger confidence will be at an all-time low. based decision making now. They’ll need significant reassurance to travel on 5. Adopt the mindset to adapt and thrive. public transport again, and the rail system will WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR INDUSTRY LEADERS TODAY? 36 While the future is still uncertain, we will likely face other need to move from a monopoly-provider mindset shocks. The rail system needs to recognise this as an to a consumer preference mentality opportunity, not a disaster. In doing so, it can set the vision for • other system shocks will arrive – and a key disadvantage change and then empower teams to respond. of the rail system is that its fixed infrastructure makes it CONTRIBUTORS 37 Throughout a tough period, rail has already demonstrated difficult to adapt and change quickly. its resilience and necessity, transporting key workers ABOUT THE REPORT 38 These three likely outcomes, when considered alongside and keeping the nation going. We should recognise our previous analysis of rail trends, make our five key and celebrate this response – while recognising an recommendations even more relevant: opportunity to change and prepare for a new future. 1. Unite behind a clear, long-term vision. To rebuild passenger confidence, the rail industry needs to unite and demonstrate a viable way to travel DR STEVE CARDEN post-COVID-19. A fragmented response – or, worse, Global Head of Transport Innovation friction amongst stakeholders – will destroy confidence. Rail needs a vision that’s compelling and attractive, and must deliver it quickly. Governments have a key role to play here as their economic objectives remain tightly tied to infrastructure success. 4 CHANGING TRACK: THE FUTURE OF RAIL FOREWORD: RAIL IN 2050 5 Industry thinking in the UK has moved beyond simply Integration has gone beyond transport. It includes operating a railway or managing infrastructure. It thinks energy distribution, telecoms networks and managing about its customers and how it best integrates with other materials, with the circular economy thriving on modes of transport. The focus is on digital, automated, collaboration between industries. This integration makes data-driven, personalised transport services available it possible for customers to build and manage their FOREWORD: at the swipe of a screen. And how rail users think about lives in more accessible, affordable and empowered journeys – what we expect from them and how we make ways. Rail is designed into a transport system built to RAIL IN 2050 them – has transformed. meet passengers’ many diverse needs. Single modes of transport could no longer efficiently serve everyone, yet Passenger satisfaction isn’t about reliability, journey together, in this new world, they can. information or clean carriages. These are a given. Instead, satisfaction is about delivering different Transport providers have adapted to new markets and The year is 2050 and much has changed. People don’t outcomes for passengers with different needs, be it shifts in demand. It’s something passengers have come talk about ‘the railway’ anymore. Passengers and freight getting from A to B in a carbon neutral way or enabling to expect, particularly when they’re paying for a service, customers talk about transport in terms of its purpose – them to do what they need to do while travelling. not just a journey. This comes from a relentless focus on Journeys are no longer just a means to an end. On-board customers that is driven from the heart of organisations, moving people and goods seamlessly across the country experiences, seamless connections and personalised not just by front-line staff. Rapid technology evolution has in the most comfortable, efficient and sustainable way. services are the norm. From how the industry plans, brought about seismic shifts in customer expectations, designs and maintains infrastructure, through to how echoing what society witnessed with equally dramatic it sells journeys and offers services, this new mindset shifts across retail, financial services and other transport has become a catalyst for change. modes in previous years. A new, responsive way of operating has unlocked large organisations’ ability to meet society’s needs. Increasingly digitalised infrastructure allows us to be versatile, acting as a platform to introduce new ideas and technologies safely, quickly and successfully. Business models, corporate cultures and a new leadership agenda allow the industry to We’ve made transportation embrace new, innovative ideas. seamless, integrated and We’ve made transportation seamless, integrated and passenger-centric, as well passenger-centric, as well as clean, safe and enjoyable. And we’ve ensured rail continues to be at the heart of as clean, safe and enjoyable. these possibilities. 6 CHANGING TRACK: THE FUTURE OF RAIL CHANGING TRACK, TODAY 7 The scale of change will bring a number of challenges. Investment in infrastructure is fraught with tension over who foots the bill and where spend should be prioritised. This tension leads to inertia and frustration over projects The Williams Review that already last for decades; new infrastructure can last CHANGING TRACK, 20 to 50 years and take decades to show returns. This has The Williams Review is billed to deliver a “root led to cautious, cumbersome decision-making processes and branch review of Britain’s railway” and TODAY where progress stalls. represents a welcome step in the journey to a brighter future for rail in the UK.2 It’s an approach that jars with the pace of today’s opportunities and people’s expectations. PA research In line with our rallying cry from 2018, Keith of 500 business leaders revealed that one-sixth of Williams recently committed to “revolution not 3 The rail industry has the technology, experience and organisations will fail in the next five years if they fail to evolution”. We expect his recommendations to investment it needs to make this seamless, integrated and keep pace with change, so inertia is no longer an option.1 offer the whole industry an opportunity to work passenger-centric railway a reality. But delivering anything together to truly put passengers at the heart of Other industries, including transport modes like aviation, the railway. close to this means going beyond existing investment and maritime and road, have woken up to this fact and are review plans – past restructuring, digitisation and simpler taking steps to adapt and innovate at speed. Rail must do The short-term horizon of previous reviews has been unable to effect deep, long-term change. ticketing – and bringing about a rail revolution. the same in order to remain an integral force in the UK transport sector. We believe the industry must be bold, look This time, we need to work to a future vision – beyond short-term or isolated horizons, and ask itself: what to where we want to be in 2050 and beyond. do we want to be known for by 2050 and beyond? Rail leadership must use the opportunities of the Williams Review to work towards that vision Rail has the technology, of the future.