MONITORING, VERIFICATION AND EVALUATION UNIT MVE UNIT AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORM PROGRAM APRP Sponsored by: Government of Egypt, Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation United States Agency for International Development/Cairo Office of Economic Growth, Agricultural Policy Division SHORT-TERM COTTON YIELD FORECASTING IN EGYPT Morsy A. Fawzy EQI Larry Pope Abt Associates Inc. Rabie Amer Ramzi Mubarak Abt Mohamed E. Abdel Salam EQI Abt Associates Inc. Prime Contractor: Abt Associates Inc. March, 2000 Subcontractors: Environmental Quality International, Management Systems International Impact Assessment Report No. 13 USAID Award: 263-C-00-97-00003-00 Project Office: 15th Floor, 7 Nadi El Seid Street, Dokki, Cairo Telephones: (202) 337-0357, 337-0592, 335-8879 Fax: (202) 349-9278 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF FIGURES....................................................................................................................v LIST OF ACRONYMS.............................................................................................................vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS........................................................................................................vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................... viii 1. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................1 1.1 Objectives ......................................................................................................................1 1.2 Justification....................................................................................................................1 1.3 Background ....................................................................................................................1 1.4 Review of Relevant Methods Used in Other Countries.................................................2 2. METHODOLOGY AND IMPLEMENTATION.................................................................3 2.1 General Definitions (Forecast vs. Estimate) ..................................................................3 2.2 Overview of Yield Estimating Procedures.....................................................................4 2.2.1 Crop Cutting Yield Per Feddan..............................................................................4 2.2.2 Forecasting Yield Per Feddan................................................................................4 2.3 Forecasting Components to Be Assessed ......................................................................4 2.4 Implementation of Assessment by MVE team...............................................................5 2.5 Study Areas and Field Work..........................................................................................7 3. ASSESSMENT OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING PROCEDURES..............................8 3.1 Sampling Procedures......................................................................................................8 3.1.1 Background ............................................................................................................8 3.1.2 Intended Sampling Procedures for Cotton Forecasting Survey.............................8 3.1.3 Observed Sampling Procedures ...........................................................................10 3.1.4 Assessment of Sampling Procedures ...................................................................10 3.1.5 Findings and Recommendations for Sampling Procedures .................................10 3.2 Survey Procedures........................................................................................................11 3.2.1 Intended Survey Procedures.................................................................................11 3.2.2 Observed Survey Procedures ...............................................................................13 3.2.3 Assessment of Survey Procedures .......................................................................13 3.2.4 Findings and Recommendations For Survey Procedures ....................................22 3.3 Forecasting Procedures ................................................................................................23 3.3.1 Past Forecasting Methods ....................................................................................23 3.3.2 Intended Forecasting Procedures .........................................................................26 3.3.3 Assessment of Potential Forecasting Procedures.................................................26 3.3.4 Findings and Recommendations for Forecasting Models....................................43 4. ANALYSES OF FIELD DATA AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR SURVEY PROCEDURES AND FORECASTING MODELS ................................................................44 4.1 Data Analysis and Survey Procedures .........................................................................44 4.1.1 Plot Size and Measurement..................................................................................44 4.1.2 Plot Location, Layout, Shape...............................................................................44 4.1.3 Counts Taken within the Plot...............................................................................46 4.1.4 Findings and Recommendations for Survey Procedures .....................................50 4.2 Data Analysis and Forecasting Models........................................................................50 4.2.1 Data Summaries...................................................................................................50 4.2.2 Fruit Development by Geographic Area..............................................................54 4.2.3 Fruit Development by Variety and Month...........................................................54 4.2.4 Applying Data to Forecasting Models .................................................................64 4.2.5 Findings and Recommendations for Forecasting Models...................................76 5. MAIN FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...........................................................77 5.1 Crop Cutting and Forecasting Surveys ........................................................................77 5.1.1 Findings................................................................................................................77 5.1.2 Recommendations ................................................................................................77 5.2 Sampling Procedures....................................................................................................77 5.2.1 Findings................................................................................................................77 5.2.2 Recommendations ................................................................................................77 5.3 Survey Timing..............................................................................................................78 5.3.1 Findings................................................................................................................78 5.3.2 Recommendations ................................................................................................78 5.4 Survey Procedures........................................................................................................78 5.4.1 Findings................................................................................................................78 5.4.2 Recommendations ................................................................................................79 5.5 Training........................................................................................................................79 5.5.1 Findings................................................................................................................79 5.5.2 Recommendations ................................................................................................79 5.6 Supplies and Equipment...............................................................................................80 5.6.1 Findings................................................................................................................80 5.6.2 Recommendations ................................................................................................80 5.7 Vehicles........................................................................................................................80 5.7.1 Findings................................................................................................................80 5.7.2 Recommendation..................................................................................................80 5.8 Incentives .....................................................................................................................81 5.8.1 Findings................................................................................................................81 5.8.2 Recommendations ................................................................................................81 5.9 Office Structure............................................................................................................81 5.9.1 Findings................................................................................................................81