V22, 8 Thursday, Oct. 6, 2016 Senate, Gov tossups; Trump up 5% Trump could impact down ballot; Young has clearer path; Gregg, Holcomb deadlocked By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – Hoosier voters are bracing for an unprecedented election homestretch, with the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races separated by a mere 1 or 2%, while Don- ald Trump has a precarious 5% lead over Hillary Clinton in the lat- est WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll released Gov. Mike Pence joined Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb and U.S. Rep. Todd Young at a today. This survey Fort Wayne rally last Friday that drew only about 300 people, raising ques- conducted by Public Opinion Strategies pollster Gene tions about what the turnout will be like on Nov. 8. Some 4.7 million Hoosiers Ulm Oct. 3 to 5 included 600 likely voters, with 360 have registered. landline phones and 240 cells, with a margin of error U.S. Senate, Democrat Evan Bayh leads Republican Todd at +/-4.0%. The party breakdown was 37% independent, Young 42-41% with Libertarian Lucy Brenton at 8%, or 31% Republican and 29% Democrat. a 3% increase from our September poll. Bayh led Young In the race that could determine control of the Continued on page 3 Young has the momentum By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE – The second WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll provides additional good news to every televi- sion station as well as other Indiana media, because if you think you’ve seen a lot of candidate ads for senate and “We have 92 election systems. We governor, wait until you see what is coming. have five different voting systems. Congressman Todd Young None of them are on the Internet has come from far behind to, at worst, within 1% of the and none of them are networked early assumed winner, former governor and senator Evan together. I’m not saying it’s im- Bayh. The race that may decide possible, I’m saying it’s next to who controls the United States Senate is essentially tied. impossible.” Former Indiana House - Sec. Connie Lawson, on Speaker John Gregg holds a two-point edge over Lt. Gov. potential hacking of election Page 2 Holcomb, but that means that they tions matter in close races. also are basically tied in the race that Like good pollsters do, there will determine which direction our were 290 pages of cross-tabulations. state will head. It is impossible to fully digest all the Even the presidential race has data to meet our rapid publication tightened a bit, and there are some deadline but here are some core signs that while Donald Trump and thoughts on the big three races: his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence, The presidential race looks are still likely to defeat Hillary Clinton like it tightened from a Trump lead here, the race could tighten even of 7% down to 5%. That’s partly Howey Politics Indiana further. because of rounding rules (he’s actu- WWHowey Media, LLC 405 Before discussing the ally above 43 and she’s below 38). Massachusetts Ave., Suite details I feel it is important to note Trump received the same number of 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 the dramatic drop in the number of raw votes, and she increased by nine. conservative voters www.howeypolitics.com in this poll as op- posed to the first Brian A. Howey, Publisher poll. It was a 13% Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington drop. In other words, Jack E. Howey, Editor Todd Young and Eric Holcomb gained even Mary Lou Howey, Editor though the number Maureen Hayden, Statehouse of moderate and Mark Curry, photography liberal voters signifi- cantly increased. It means one of the Subscriptions following things: HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 Indiana has become HPI Weekly, $350 significantly more Ray Volpe, Account Manager liberal since September; or one poll This is in spite of Trump’s first debate 317.602.3620 either over-sampled or under-sampled disaster and the partial release of conservatives. his tax data. His terrible week didn’t email: [email protected] Since exactly 586 people iden- translate to much Indiana gain for Hill- Contact HPI tified their ideology in both polls, it ary. [email protected] becomes easier to convert the actual Her glimmer of Indi- Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 raw data to percentages. In Sep- ana hope in this poll is in the Gary tember, 52.3% identified themselves Johnson vote. He continues at 11%, Washington: 202.256.5822 as conservatives of some type, and receiving exactly the same number of Business Office: 317.602.3620 47.7% said they were moderates or votes as in September. The break-outs liberals (tilting moderate). In October, make it clear that more Johnson vot- © 2016, Howey Politics only 41.6% identified as conserva- ers are Democrats than Republicans. Indiana. All rights reserved. tives and 58.4% were moderates and His vote is heavily skewed to the two liberals. Even more dramatically, the younger age voter categories. Photocopying, Internet forward- “very conservative” category – those The Libertarian Party vote for ing, faxing or reproducing in most likely to vote for the Republican Senate and governor clarifies this the any form, whole or part, is a candidates – dropped at the greatest most. The self-identified conservative violation of federal law without rate. vote for Libertarian statewide can- permission from the publisher. Using the September didates is more than double that for number of conservatives, of which Johnson (i.e. the more conservative Young received 63% and Bayh 22%, Libertarians vote for all the Libertar- the shift to Young would change the ians). This strongly suggests that October bottom line to: Young 43.5% perhaps half of the Johnson voters and Bayh 39.7%. In other words, in Indiana are disgruntled, younger Young would be ahead by nearly 4%. Bernie Sanders voters. If those Furthermore, in October, Young actu- Democrats came home, Clinton would ally increased his dominance among be pretty close in Indiana (certainly conservatives to 70%-15%. Assump- within the margin of polling error). In Page 3 other words, it is not clear how Trump gains much, but continues, need to begin to focus on a few more win- Hillary has a slight window. nable races. That said, I have watched Evan and his dad The Senate race does not present the same hope recover before. Anybody in Indiana who underestimates a for Bayh. The Sanders voters seem to be largely in his Bayh should get out of politics and political commentary. camp already. But he has an even bigger problem. Even The most remarkable thing in the gubernatorial though he has outspent Young in the period between race is the inability of John Gregg to put away Eric Hol- the polls, and mixed a few positive ads in with his media comb. Gregg has practically been camping in our living blizzard of negative ads, Bayh has had a steep rise in his room for months with his television bombardment of Fort unfavorable rating combined with a drop in his favorable Wayne. And he ran for governor, backed up with millions in rating. Young’s ratio remained about the same, but Bayh ad dollars, in the last campaign. The biggest thing I hear dropped from heavily favorable (48-28 in September) to relative to Eric is “Tell me again, who is the Republican narrowly favorable (43-39). running for governor?” This is, I would again point out, in spite of Gregg seems to have a locked-down vote, but it is having substantially fewer conservatives in this poll. Bayh not yet enough to win. The only question is whether Hol- had not been hit with many negative ads for decades. He comb can continue to gather in the Republicans who have began as a warm fuzzy because he is a nice guy, but his yet to make their choice. Young may have more momen- vote on Obamacare, his obviously false claim that he isn’t tum, but Bayh is a much tougher candidate to defeat than a lobbyist, and his time away from Indiana have sent his Gregg. positive image crumbling. The number one conclusion from this second Furthermore, Bayh has already consolidated the Howey Politics Indiana poll is this: Here in Indiana, we are Hillary vote. Young still has not rounded up all the Trump likely in for a continued wild ride to the finish line.v voters. In other words, Young has more space to grow his vote. Souder is a former Republican congressman from The national Republicans are likely to be thrilled Indiana. with these results. The Democrats may, if this trend line to do better among. Trump will have huge impacts.” WTHR/Howey Poll, from page 1 This third WTHR/Howey 44-41% last month. In the Politics Indiana Poll comes after gubernatorial race, Democrat an epic, rollercoaster cycle that John Gregg leads 41-39% in saw Trump clinch the Repub- a race that could be decided lican nomination in the May 3 by who wins the presidential Indiana primary, pluck Gov. Mike race. Libertarian Rex Bell is at Pence out of a reelection battle 5%. he might have lost, and then And in that presiden- saw post convention bumps for tial race, Donald Trump’s poor both major party presidential first debate and his feud with nominees. Trump appeared to a beauty queen has his 7% be closing on Clinton heading September lead shrinking to into the first debate at Hofstra 43-38%, with Libertarian Gary University, where Clinton sprang Johnson holding steady at the trap involving Miss Universe 11%.