FOREWORD As ARF Chair, it is my pleasant duty to present you the ninth volume of the Annual Security Outlook (ASO). This publication is based on voluntary contributions from ARF participating countries, giving each country’s view on the regional security situation in 2008. The objective of the ASO is to help create mutual understanding and build trust among ARF countries. I thank the countries which have contributed to this year’s ASO and hope that there will be even greater participation in the future. George Yeo Chairman of the 15th ARF and Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Singapore Singapore, 24 July 2008 ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Australia ........................................................................................ 1 Canada .......................................................................................... 9 China ............................................................................................ 21 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea .............................................. 29 Indonesia ....................................................................................... 33 Japan ............................................................................................. 41 Malaysia ........................................................................................ 51 New Zealand .................................................................................. 61 Republic of Korea ........................................................................... 67 Russia ............................................................................................ 73 Singapore ....................................................................................... 79 Thailand ........................................................................................ 89 The United States ........................................................................... 95 Viet Nam ....................................................................................... 99 AUSTRALIA ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2008 AUSTRALIA Overview Australia was closely associated with the creation of the ARF, now in its 15th year. The ARF The Asia Pacific security environment is the region’s principal forum for security dialogue has become increasingly complex. Managing the and cooperation and we seek to enhance its ability expanding agenda of security threats poses greater to make practical contributions to regional security demands on ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) challenges. Australia supports increasing security- members and governments globally. Terrorism and related dialogue and cooperation in regional bodies WMD proliferation are critical challenges requiring such as APEC and the East Asia Summit, as well concerted responses. New threats also represent as in “track 2”, such as the Council for Security challenges - pandemics, climate disruption, Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP) and the transnational crime and food security. These issues International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) have the potential to exacerbate existing security Asia Security Conference (the Shangri-La Dialogue). We welcome the evolution of the ASEAN Defence problems - particularly for countries with fragile 1 institutions. Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) and its adoption of an ADMM-Plus concept for engagement with regional Three pillars underpin the Australian security partners. Government’s foreign policy. Our alliance with the United States is the first pillar and the strategic The entry into force in February this bedrock of our foreign and security policy. Closer year of the Australia-Indonesia Agreement on the engagement with the United Nations and other Framework for Security Cooperation (the Lombok multilateral institutions is the second pillar. Treaty), and ongoing implementation of initiatives Australia wants an effective United Nations (UN), under the Australia-Japan Joint Declaration on and we are seeking a seat on the UN Security Security Cooperation, will add further to the stability Council (UNSC) in 2013-2014. The third pillar of the Asia Pacific region. In February this year, is comprehensive engagement with the Asia Pacific. the Australian Foreign Minister, Mr Smith, met his The Australian Government is committed to strong, Chinese counterpart in Canberra for the inaugural close and cooperative relations with countries of the Australia-China bilateral strategic dialogue. Asia Pacific region. Australia wants strong regional Dialogue and cooperation are essential institutions that will underpin an open, peaceful, to promoting international security. We maintain stable, prosperous and sustainable region. an extensive network of dialogues with our Asia The region needs to be able to shape effectively Pacific partners to share assessments on security its future. To this end Australia wants to begin a issues of common concern. We consult regularly conversation with the region about the development with our key partners the United States and Japan of an Asia Pacific Community by 2020. We in the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue and with ASEAN will consult intensively with the region on this through the ASEAN-plus arrangements, the East proposal. Asia Summit and the ARF. ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM | Annual Security Outlook 2008 Australia’s Security Framework The NPT remains of central importance and Australia will seek close cooperation with our Australia is conducting a major assessment regional partners in support of a positive result at the (“White Paper”) of future defence and security 2010 NPT Review Conference. In the Conference challenges and considering how they can best be on Disarmament, Australia will continue to press for addressed. The White Paper will form the basis for negotiations on a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty. developing future Australian Defence capabilities and will help in making informed and cost effective In June 2008, Australia announced the decisions about military capabilities needed to defend establishment of an International Commission Australia and to promote Australian interests. on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament. The objective will be to reinvigorate the global effort Australia recognises the importance against nuclear weapons proliferation and shape a of consulting with its key allies and partners as it global consensus in the lead up to the 2010 NPT develops the White Paper and will discuss mutually Review Conference. shared interests such as regional security and the Australia is playing a leadership role in need for transparency in defence planning. international efforts to prevent the proliferation of Specific issues of interest and concern chemical and biological weapons through its chairing of the Australia Group. Australia hopes more regional countries will subscribe to The Hague Code WMD Proliferation and Arms Control 2 of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation, which includes an obligation to announce ballistic All countries have a national security missile and space launches in advance. Australia interest in preventing the proliferation of weapons will host the 2008 Missile Technology Control of mass destruction (WMD) and their means of Regime (MTCR) Plenary and chair the MTCR in delivery. International regimes such as the Nuclear 2008-2009. The aim of the regime is to limit the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) have a vital role risks of WMD proliferation by controlling transfers in preventing WMD proliferation and building that could make a contribution to delivery systems the trust and confidence between states essential (other than manned aircraft) for such weapons. for deterring proliferation. Australia believes that the commitment of further countries to key Consistent with UNSC Resolution international instruments – including the IAEA 1540, Australia encourages regional countries to Additional Protocol, the Comprehensive Nuclear enhance their export control measures, and looks Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the Chemical Weapons particularly to transhipping states to be vigilant Convention, the Biological Weapons Convention, for cargoes that could contribute to WMD and the Convention on the Physical Protection proliferation. We also encourage regional countries of Nuclear Material – would enhance regional to review their domestic regulatory frameworks to security. Regular, timely submission of annual ensure the effectiveness of their controls on sensitive returns under these instruments is a key to building and dual-use items. trust. Australia is a leading participant in the Australian supports efforts to bring the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), an informal CTBT into force, and to finalise its verification arrangement among over 90 countries to cooperate system, and urges countries yet to do so to sign and with each other, within existing international and ratify the Treaty. national law, to intercept and disrupt illicit WMD AUSTRALIA trade. The PSI provides an opportunity for countries Australia urges ARF members to continue in the Asia Pacific region to share information and to demonstrate to the DPRK the importance the develop capabilities to address proliferation in region places on the DPRK abandoning its nuclear a practical way that reinforces and implements weapons programs. existing global non-proliferation norms and measures. Man Portable Air-Defence Systems (MANPADS) and Small Arms The acquisition of WMD by any state has the potential to weaken global restraints on