MARICOPA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS REGIONAL TRANSIT FRAMEWORK FINAL REPORT Prepared for: Maricopa Association of Governments 302 North First Avenue, Suite 300 Phoenix, AZ 85003 Contributions by: HDR Engineering, Inc. URS Corporation AECOM Hexagon Transportation Ordonez & Vogelsang WestGroup Research January 5, 2010 Final Report FINAL REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 REGIONAL TRANSIT FRAMEWORK SUMMARY ........................................................................... 1 1.1 Review of Previous Studies .......................................................................................... 1 1.2 Public Involvement ...................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Peer Region Analysis & Evaluation ............................................................................... 2 1.4 Planning Analysis ........................................................................................................ 2 1.5 Transit Modes ............................................................................................................. 3 1.6 Regional Transit Framework Scenarios ......................................................................... 4 1.7 Sustainable Transit and Development ........................................................................... 4 1.8 Future Planning Needs ................................................................................................ 4 2.0 PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT ............................................................................................................ 6 2.1 Focus Groups .............................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Telephone Surveys ...................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Public Meetings & Presentations ................................................................................... 8 3.0 PEER REGIONS REVIEW AND EVALUATION ............................................................................ 10 3.1 Review of Peer Regions ............................................................................................. 10 3.2 Peer Panelists’ Evaluation of the MAG region’s Transit System ..................................... 15 4.0 ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL TRANSIT DEFICIENCIES AND NEEDS ............................................... 17 4.1 Basic Deficiencies ...................................................................................................... 17 4.1.1 Service Area Coverage ................................................................................. 17 4.1.2 Passenger Convenience (Including Speed, Frequency and Hours of Service) ... 18 4.1.3 Funding Limitations ..................................................................................... 19 4.1.4 Detailed Regional Transit Deficiencies ........................................................... 24 4.2 Regional Transit Needs .............................................................................................. 25 4.2.1 New or Expanded Transit Service ................................................................. 25 4.2.2 New Service Corridors .................................................................................. 25 4.2.3 Higher-Speed Travel Opportunities ............................................................... 25 4.2.4 New Revenue Sources ................................................................................. 26 4.3 Relationship of Regional Transit Needs & Deficiencies ................................................. 26 5.0 FUTURE REGIONAL TRANSIT SERVICE OPTIONS FOR THE MAG REGION................................. 28 5.1 Regional Transit Service Modes .................................................................................. 28 5.1.1 Regional Connector ..................................................................................... 28 5.1.2 Regional Fixed Route Bus (Supergrid) ........................................................... 29 5.1.3 Arterial BRT................................................................................................. 29 5.1.4 Express Bus ................................................................................................ 30 5.1.5 HCT Peak Period .......................................................................................... 31 5.1.6 HCT All Day ................................................................................................. 32 5.2 Recommended Regional Transit Service Standards ...................................................... 34 6.0 REGIONAL TRANSIT CORRIDORS .......................................................................................... 36 6.1 Prioritization of Transit Corridors ................................................................................ 36 6.2 Screening of Corridors ............................................................................................... 36 6.3 Performance of the Corridors in the MAG Regional Travel Demand Model ..................... 41 6.4 Performance of Transit Service in Freight Rail Corridors ............................................... 42 7.0 REGIONAL TRANSIT FRAMEWORK SCENARIOS FOR YEAR 2030 .............................................. 43 7.1 Transit Mobility Scenario Concepts ............................................................................. 43 i Final Report 7.2 Transit Mobility Scenarios Common Elements – Year 2030 Funded Transit System ........ 45 7.2.1 Fixed Route Service ..................................................................................... 47 7.2.2 Express Bus Routes ..................................................................................... 51 7.2.3 High-Capacity Transit and Arterial BRT ......................................................... 52 7.2.4 Transit Passenger Facilities .......................................................................... 52 7.3 Transit Scenario I: Basic Mobility ............................................................................... 55 7.4 Transit Scenario II: Enhanced Mobility ....................................................................... 61 7.5 Transit Scenario III: Transit Choice ............................................................................ 69 7.6 Comparison of Services within Freight Rail Corridors by Scenario ................................. 78 7.7 Regional Intermodal Connections ............................................................................... 78 7.8 Regional Transit Mobility Scenarios Comparison of Performance .................................. 80 7.8.1 Estimated Transit Patronage by Scenario ...................................................... 80 7.8.2 Estimated Transit Patronage by Mode ........................................................... 80 7.8.3 Transit Mode Split by Scenario ..................................................................... 81 7.8.4 Factors Affecting Projected Ridership ............................................................ 81 8.0 REGIONAL TRANSIT FRAMEWORK FINANCIAL SUMMARY ....................................................... 83 8.1 Introduction.............................................................................................................. 83 8.2 History of Transit Funding ......................................................................................... 83 8.3 General Revenue Assumptions ................................................................................... 83 8.4 Expenditure Assumptions .......................................................................................... 85 8.4.1 Expenditure Categories ................................................................................ 85 8.5 Unit Cost Variables .................................................................................................... 86 8.6 Estimated Expenditures by Scenario ........................................................................... 87 9.0 LONG RANGE TRANSIT NEEDS BEYOND 2030 ........................................................................ 88 9.1 Analysis of Potential Transit Corridors Beyond 2030 .................................................... 88 9.2 Considerations for Potential Transit Corridors Beyond 2030 ......................................... 89 9.3 Additional Long-Range Public Transportation System Needs Beyond 2030 .................... 91 10.0 TRANSIT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................... 92 10.1 Transit-Supportive Land Use ...................................................................................... 92 10.2 Activity Centers ......................................................................................................... 98 10.3 Parking and Transit ................................................................................................... 99 11.0 REGIONAL TRANSIT FRAMEWORK SUMMARY AND FUTURE PLANNING NEEDS ...................... 103 11.1 Regional Transit Framework Summary ..................................................................... 103 11.2 Future Planning Needs ............................................................................................ 104 LIST OF ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................................ 106 GLOSSARY OF TERMS ....................................................................................................................