INFORMATION, ANALYSIS AND ADVICE FOR THE PARLIAMENT INFORMATION AND RESEARCH SERVICES Current Issues Brief No. 13 2002–03 Victorian Election 2002 DEPARTMENT OF THE PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY ISSN 1440-2009 Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2003 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written consent of the Department of the Parliamentary Library, other than by Senators and Members of the Australian Parliament in the course of their official duties. This paper has been prepared for general distribution to Senators and Members of the Australian Parliament. While great care is taken to ensure that the paper is accurate and balanced, the paper is written using information publicly available at the time of production. The views expressed are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Information and Research Services (IRS). Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion. Readers are reminded that the paper is not an official parliamentary or Australian government document. IRS staff are available to discuss the paper's contents with Senators and Members and their staff but not with members of the public. Published by the Department of the Parliamentary Library, 2003 I NFORMATION AND R ESEARCH S ERVICES Current Issues Brief No. 13 2002–03 Victorian Election 2002 Scott Bennett, Politics and Public Administration Group Gerard Newman, Statistics Group 10 February 2003 Acknowledgments Thanks to Brian Costar, Cathy Madden, Sarah Miskin and Ian Holland. Maps by Klaus Inveen. 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On the Internet the Department of the Parliamentary Library can be found at: http://www.aph.gov.au/library/ IRS Publications Office Telephone: (02) 6277 2778 Contents Major Issues ............................................................................................................................i Introduction............................................................................................................................1 An election is called...............................................................................................................2 The impact of a redistribution................................................................................................2 The contestants.......................................................................................................................3 Australian Labor Party ......................................................................................................3 Liberal Party ......................................................................................................................4 VicNats..............................................................................................................................4 Greens................................................................................................................................5 Australian Democrats ........................................................................................................5 Independents......................................................................................................................5 The campaign.........................................................................................................................6 Australian Labor Party ......................................................................................................6 Liberal Party ......................................................................................................................6 VicNats..............................................................................................................................8 The result—Legislative Assembly.........................................................................................9 The result—Legislative Council ..........................................................................................10 Explaining the outcome—Legislative Assembly.................................................................10 The standing of the Government ................................................................................10 The Premier ................................................................................................................11 The importance of winning across Melbourne ...........................................................11 The Liberals.....................................................................................................................12 A refusal to accept the 1999 result .............................................................................13 The Kennett legacy.....................................................................................................13 Leadership infighting..................................................................................................13 Robert Doyle's leadership...........................................................................................13 The Dean fiasco ..........................................................................................................14 The Greens ......................................................................................................................14 Electorates of interest ......................................................................................................14 Bass.............................................................................................................................14 Benalla ........................................................................................................................15 Forest Hill ...................................................................................................................15 Geelong.......................................................................................................................16 Victorian Election 2002 Gembrook...................................................................................................................16 Macedon .....................................................................................................................17 Melbourne ..................................................................................................................17 Mitcham......................................................................................................................18 Morwell ......................................................................................................................18 Shepparton..................................................................................................................18 South-West Coast .......................................................................................................19 Explaining the result—Legislative Council.........................................................................19 The dust settles.....................................................................................................................20 Endnotes...............................................................................................................................20 Election results.....................................................................................................................24 Appendix 1...........................................................................................................................54 Legislative Assembly By-elections 1999-2002 ..............................................................54 Appendix 2...........................................................................................................................55 Legislative Council By-elections 1999-2002..................................................................55 Appendix 3...........................................................................................................................56 Legislative Assembly Elections 1950–2002 ...................................................................56 Appendix 4...........................................................................................................................57 Legislative Council Elections 1952–2002 ......................................................................57 List of Tables Table 1a Legislative Assembly, Seats Won.........................................................................24 Table 1b Legislative Council, Seats Won............................................................................24 Table 2 Legislative Assembly, State Summary ...................................................................25 Table 3 Legislative Assembly, Region Summary................................................................26 Table 4a Legislative Assembly, District Summary, First Preference Votes........................27 Table 4b Legislative Assembly, District Summary, First Preference Votes .......................29 Table 5 Legislative Assembly, District Summary, Two Party Preferred Votes ..................31 Table 6 Legislative Assembly, Electoral Pendulum............................................................33