EGYPT BUSINESS DIGEST January 2020 Updates on the economy, key legislation and major investment projects Macro Round-up Throughout FY 2018/19, Egypt has maintained its pace of social and economic reforms, pushing its growth well above the regional average. The country’s progress in GDP growth, foreign exchange revenues, fiscal consolidation, inflation management and other macroeconomic indicators verify the success of these reforms and justify the move onto making more structural changes to the economy. Real Economy Indicator FY 2017/18 FY 2018/19 FY 2019/20 (IMF Forecast) Real GDP growth 5.3% 5.6% 5.9% Unemployment rate 9.9% 7.5% 8.0% Period average inflation 22.0% 13.4% 11.4% Government debt (share of GDP) 97.3% 85.2% 81.9% • Real GDP growth hit an 11-year high in FY 2018/19, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting it will hit 5.9% in FY 2019/20 and 6% in FY 2021/22. • The unemployment rate continued to decline to an estimated 7.5% in FY 2018/19, compared to 11.1% in FY 2017/18. • The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)’s annual headline inflation rate fell to 7.2% in January 2020, compared to 12.7% in January 2019. • Following consistent drops in price pressures, the CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee cut key interest rates by a cumulative 650 basis points (bps) in 2018 and 2019. As of January 2020, the overnight deposit, overnight lending and main operation rates stood at 12.25%, 13.25% and 12.75%, respectively. Analysts are forecasting interest rates will continue declining by 300 bps throughout 2020. • The government aims to reduce government debt to 80% of GDP by 2022 by extending maturities on government debt and speeding up the inclusion of informal businesses into the formal economy. Repayment of the USD 12 billion IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) is scheduled to begin in May 2021 with a tranche of USD 2.75 billion, followed by equal installments through 2026. Egypt’s government is discussing possible further non-financial assistance from the IMF in support of its continuing reforms. Monetary Aggregates • The Egyptian pound (EGP) dipped below EGP 16 per USD in December 2019 for the first time in three years. The EGP has appreciated about 10% since December 2018 and is considerably stronger than its December 2016 rate of EGP 18.96 posted after the free-float of the currency in November 2016. At the end of January 2020, the USD was valued at EGP 15.79. • In June 2019, Bloomberg named the Egyptian pound as the second-best currency of 2019 for its performance against the U.S. dollar. • Foreign currency deposits stood at EGP 669.1 billion (USD 41.8 billion) as of October 2019, dropping by 2.5% month- on-month and 8.9% y-o-y in local currency terms. • Foreign holdings of Treasury bills and bonds continued rising during 2019 on the back of higher investor confidence. As of September 2019, total foreign holdings of Egyptian debt instruments recorded USD 15.3 billion, up 7% y-o-y. The Ministry of Finance issued USD 6 billion and EUR 2 billion in international bonds during 2019 and plans to issue USD 3-7 billion during FY 2019/20, with 70% earmarked for USD-denominated eurobonds. • Egypt’s total foreign debt reached USD 107.8 billion in FY 2018/19 (36% of GDP). Fiscal Aggregates FY 2019/20 FY 2020/21 FY 2017/18 FY 2018/19 (IMF forecast) (IMF forecast) EGP 432.6 billion EGP 439.2 billion EGP 442.4 billion EGP 398 billion Government budget deficit (USD 24.4 billion) (USD 25 billion) (USD 26 billion) (USD 24.8 billion) Total deficit (% of GDP) 9.7 8.2 7.0 5.6 • Egypt achieved a primary budget surplus of 2% during FY 2018/19 and came in below its 8.4% budget deficit target. 1 • The FY 2019/20 budget includes a 10% increase in expenditures to EGP 1.6 trillion (USD 100 billion). Government investments financed from the General Treasury total EGP 140 billion (USD 8.8 billion), up 40% from the FY 2018/19 budget and marking the highest increase in investments over the last 10 years. • Tax revenues rose 22.4% to EGP 770.3 billion (USD 43.9 billion) during FY 2018/19 and accounted for 77.8% of total revenues, compared to EGP 629.4 billion (USD 35.4 billion) during FY 2017/18. Investment (USD billion) FY 2017/18 FY 2018/19 Q1 2018/19 Q1 2019/20Q1 Private sector investments 17.8 28.5 6.7 Net FDI to Egypt 7.7 8.2 1.4 2.4 Portfolio investments inflow (outflow) 12.1 4.2 (3.24) (1.98) Source: CBE • Egypt was the top recipient of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Africa in 2019 for the fourth consecutive year and second largest among Arab countries. Its net FDI inflows during FY 2018/19 posted a y-o-y increase of 6.5% to USD 8.2 billion. The FDI growth was driven by a USD 837.9 million increase in net inflows for greenfield investments to USD 1.5 billion, along with a USD 256.4 million increase in net inflows for oil sector investments to USD 744.2 million. Top FDI Inflows by Country (USD million) Rank Source FY 2017/18 FY 2018/19 Q1 2019/20 1 United Kingdom 4,552.8 6,254.6 1,264.2 2 Belgium 2,288.6 2,264.9 683.4 3 United States 2,244.4 1,631.3 583.5 4 United Arab Emirates 1,075.4 675.5 314.7 5 The Netherlands 349.1 241.0 216.6 • In July 2019, construction began for five public free zones in Tenth of Ramadan, Minya, Giza, Nuweiba and Aswan. The zones will support different industries and promote exports, and are set to be complete during H2 2019/20. • The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Egypt improved in December 2019 to 48.2 from 47.9 in November, which saw the lowest level of private sector business activity in two years. The PMI measures the health of the overall operating conditions in the non-oil private sector economy, with scores above 50 indicating expanding business activity. Egypt’s manufacturing PMI averaged 48.18 from 2012 to 2019, reaching an all-time high of 52.5 in November 2013 and a record low of 37.10 in December 2012. Egypt Long-term Sovereign Credit Ratings Pre-2016 Post-2016 Rating (outlook) Date Rating (outlook) Date Moody’s B3 (stable) Apr 07 2015 B2 (stable) Sept 1 2019 S&P B- (stable) Nov 13 2015 B (stable) May 11 2018 Fitch B (stable) Dec 19 2014 B+ (stable) Nov 25 2019 • On February 1, 2019, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) upgraded Egypt’s rating on its Country Risk Classification Index to five from six, marking it as an investment-friendly destination. The Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX) 2017 2018 2019 EGX 30 market returns (EGP terms) 22.0% -13.2% 7.1% Volume traded (billion securities) 77.9 60.8 49.8 Value traded (USD billion) 18.7 20.0 25.5 Market capitalization (USD billion) 46.5 41.8 44.2 Net foreign equity (USD million) 487.3 403.0 -105.0 Foreign participation (share of value traded) 17.7% 23.2% 26.1% Exchange rate EGP/USD (end of period) 17.728 17.914 16.042 2 • Despite global economic headwinds affecting most capital markets, Egypt’s benchmark EGX30 index gained 7% in EGP terms in 2019, closing at 13,961.56 points. • In February 2019, the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) issued Decision 268 of 2019 on short-selling rules to activate the mechanism and began granting licenses to brokerages in June 2019.On December 1, 2019, short-selling officially launched on the local bourse with 51 licenses granted. • In March 2019, the government launched a secondary offering of 4.5% of Eastern Company SAE, one of the state- owned companies slated for partial privatization through the bourse. • In February 2020, state-owned Banque Misr announced an initial public offering (IPO) of up to 45% of its Banque du Caire (BdC) unit on the EGX in H1 2020. The bank is open to foreign investor participation in the stake sale and has begun its roadshow for the BdC IPO in the United States. • Additional stake sales in already listed state companies Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling Company (ACCH), Abu Qir Fertilizers, and Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (Sidpec) are expected to take place in 2020. Other companies on the government’s agenda for IPOs include Enppi, Heliopolis for Housing and Development (HHD) and e-Finance. External Sector (USD billion) FY 2017/18 FY 2018/19 Change (%) Balance of Payments (BOP) 12.8 -0.1 -100 Current account deficit 6.0 8.2 36.7 Financial account balance 22.1 8.7 -60.6 Trade deficit 37.3 38.0 1.9 Non-oil merchandise exports 17.1 16.9 -1.2 Oil merchandise exports 25.8 28.5 31.8 Merchandise imports 63.1 66.5 5.4 Tourism revenues 9.8 12.6 28.5 Workers’ remittances 26.4 25.2 -4.5 Suez Canal Revenues 5.7 5.7 - Net international reserves 44.26 44.35 0.2 Source: CBE • In FY 2018/19, Egypt recorded an overall BOP deficit of only USD 102.5 million, largely due to an overall surplus of USD 1.4 billion in Q3 of the fiscal year.