Hovercraft Feasibility Study San Francisco Water Emergency Transportation Authority AECOM Project number: 60617240 WETA Contract number: 19-008 November 30, 2020 Hovercraft Feasibility Study Prepared for: San Francisco Water Emergency Transportation Authority Pier 9 The Embarcadero #111 San Francisco, CA 94111 Prepared by: AECOM 300 Lakeside Drive Suite 400 Oakland, CA 94612 aecom.com San Francisco Water Emergency Transportation Authority AECOM Hovercraft Feasibility Study Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Stakeholder Outreach ............................................................................................................... 2 2. Hovercraft Technology ........................................................................................................................ 4 2.1 Overview of Hovercraft Technology Update ............................................................................. 4 2.2 Commercial Hovercraft Models, Costs, and Fuel Consumption .............................................. 4 2.3 Hovercraft Maintenance Costs ................................................................................................. 5 2.4 Crew Size ................................................................................................................................. 6 3. Phase 2 Routes and Operating Cost Modeling .................................................................................. 7 3.1 Phase 2 Routes ........................................................................................................................ 7 3.2 Travel Speeds and Times ......................................................................................................... 7 3.3 Refined Operating Cost Analysis .............................................................................................. 9 4. Ridership, Fare, and Annual Cost Analysis ...................................................................................... 11 4.1 Ridership Analysis .................................................................................................................. 11 4.2 Fares ....................................................................................................................................... 12 4.3 Annual Operating Cost per Route .......................................................................................... 12 5. Environmental Considerations .......................................................................................................... 13 5.1 Engine Requirements ............................................................................................................. 13 5.2 Emissions Analysis ................................................................................................................. 13 5.3 Noise and Habitat Impacts in Phases 1 and 2 ....................................................................... 14 6. Capital Costs and Site Selection ...................................................................................................... 15 6.1 Terminal Site Locations and Capital Costs ............................................................................. 15 6.2 Maintenance and Overnight Storage Facility Needs and Capital Costs ................................ 24 6.3 Hovercraft Purchase Capital Costs ........................................................................................ 25 7. Certification Processes and Project Timelines ................................................................................. 26 7.1 Staff Training and Certification ............................................................................................... 26 7.2 Craft Certification Process ...................................................................................................... 26 7.3 Hovercraft Project Timeline .................................................................................................... 26 8. Funding and Financing Analysis ....................................................................................................... 28 8.1 Funding and Financing a Hovercraft Service ......................................................................... 28 8.2 Public Funding and Financing Opportunities .......................................................................... 30 8.3 Case Studies of Public-Private Partnerships in Public Transit Delivery ................................. 35 8.4 Funding and Financing Scenario Modeling ............................................................................ 37 9. Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................... 40 – WETA Recent Operating Costs ............................................................................................ 41 – Initial Long List of Routes in Phase 1 ................................................................................... 43 B.1 Vallejo ..................................................................................................................................... 44 B.2 Martinez/Antioch (Carquinez Strait) ....................................................................................... 44 B.3 Hercules/Pinole Area .............................................................................................................. 44 B.4 Richmond ................................................................................................................................ 44 B.5 Berkeley .................................................................................................................................. 45 B.6 Oakland/Alameda ................................................................................................................... 45 B.7 Downtown San Francisco ....................................................................................................... 46 B.8 San Francisco and Oakland Airports ...................................................................................... 48 B.9 South San Francisco .............................................................................................................. 48 San Francisco Water Emergency Transportation Authority AECOM i Hovercraft Feasibility Study B.10 San Leandro ........................................................................................................................... 49 B.11 Foster City .............................................................................................................................. 49 B.12 East Dumbarton Bridge .......................................................................................................... 49 B.13 West Dumbarton Bridge and Cooley Landing ........................................................................ 50 B.14 Mountain View Area ................................................................................................................ 51 B.15 Alviso ...................................................................................................................................... 52 B.16 Coyote Creek/Mud Slough ..................................................................................................... 52 – Ridership Model Validation and Initial Forecasts ................................................................. 53 C.1 2010 Validation ....................................................................................................................... 53 C.2 2020 Validation ....................................................................................................................... 53 C.3 Initial Forecasts....................................................................................................................... 54 – Noise Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 58 D.1 Airborne Sound ....................................................................................................................... 58 D.2 Possible Impacts of Airborne Noise ........................................................................................ 58 D.3 Underwater Sound .................................................................................................................. 61 D.4 Effects on Birds ....................................................................................................................... 61 D.5 Hydroacoustic Threshold Criteria for Fish Species ................................................................ 62 D.6 Hydroacoustic Threshold Criteria for Marine Mammals ......................................................... 63 – South Bay Environmental Constraints .................................................................................. 65 E.1 Site Specific Environmental Constraints: Protected Species and Habitat ............................. 66 – Emissions Analysis ............................................................................................................... 68 F.1 Emissions Methodologies ....................................................................................................... 68 F.2 Emissions Assumptions .......................................................................................................... 69