The Great Australian Dream - Just a Dream? Housing affordability trends for Australia and our largest 25 cities AMP.NATSEM INcoME ANd WealTh REPort ISSUE 29 - JULY 2011 CONTENTS Foreword 1 Introduction 2 Decade of decline: Australian housing affordability 3 Measuring housing affordability 4 Housing stress in Australia 6 International comparisons 9 Capital cities and states 10 Australia’s largest 25 cities compared 13 Suburban affordability 2001 and 2011 in our largest cities 17 Conclusion 21 References 22 Appendix A 23 Appendix B 24 Appendix C 25 Foreword Owning a home has long been a great Australian dream. Following World War II, patriotism and a desire for security, as well as favourable economic conditions and government policy, prompted people to put down roots. The rate of home ownership boomed, rising from 40 per cent in 1947 to over 70 per cent by the 1960s.1 So, like the “American dream” of prosperity and success, Australians too have been driven by the desire to secure their future and invest in a home of their own. But is home ownership becoming the impossible dream? The latest AMP.NATSEM Report The Great Australian Dream - Just a Dream? examines the state of housing affordability in Australia. The report found that house prices moved from affordable to severely unaffordable over the last 10 years. The dream may now be completely out of reach for some people, with first home buyers older, borrowing more and facing considerable housing stress once they’ve entered the market. So why do Australians want to own their own home? Through the years, home ownership has become part of the Australian psyche. The Hills hoist has become a cherished symbol of Australia’s love of the land and love of houses. A backyard, a barbecue and a dog have also become part of this picture. Home ownership has been supported more recently by ongoing government initiatives such as the First Home Owner Grant and tax concessions available to home owners. However, in the last decade, buying your own little piece of Australia has become a lot more expensive. Just 10 years ago, more than 50 per cent of all suburbs in our five major capital cities were affordable but today only four per cent are. Not a single inner city suburb is affordable. And the regional areas haven’t been exempt from this phenomenon either. Although Australia is now one of the most unaffordable developed countries in the world in terms of housing, we’re a country that’s nothing if not determined. There are still many people entering the property market or preparing to do so. While Australian first home buyers are under the greatest housing stress, this group is finding ways of achieving their goal in different ways. Many are choosing to save money by living with their parents longer while others are choosing to buy an apartment instead of a house. Our history of determination in the face of adversity is seeing a new generation carve out their financial futures. We have shown in the past that as a nation we can adapt and prosper, a skill that will see us hold on tight to the Australian dream for many years to come. craig Meller Managing Director AMP Financial Services 1. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trading website 2008, www.dfat.gov.au/aib/history.html. 1 Introduction The great Australian dream for many individuals and families is to purchase their very own piece of Australia. As our nation grew and prospered through the second half of the 20th century, this dream became a reality for many young families. Land was cheap, housing was cheap and most of us could afford to buy our very own home. Something changed last decade. House prices, not only in Australia, but globally, soared and put the great Australian dream in doubt. Rising prices are seen as a boon for those who already have their own home, but a nightmare for those attempting to get into the market. The Australian property market truly is a tale of the housing haves and the housing have-nots. Typically, the “haves” purchased their home many years ago when prices were more favourable. They have since experienced windfall gains through the growth in the price of their properties. The “have-nots” are typically renters, the young (often First Home Buyers), lone persons and single parents. These are the groups facing the highest rates of housing stress and the greatest affordability constraints. The results of this report relate most strongly to those people at the lower rung of the housing market who either recently purchased or are saving for their first home, rather than existing home owners. This issue of the AMP.NATSEM Income and Wealth Report examines housing affordability in Australia and poses the following questions: – Is it getting harder to realise the great Australian dream? – Who experiences the most housing stress? – How affordable are Australia’s 25 largest cities? – What are the trends in affordability? – Are any suburbs in Australia’s major capital cities affordable? 2 Decade of decline: Australian housing affordability A decent shelter is a basic necessity for us all and owning by 263 per cent, while after-tax income grew by only 95 per our own home the life goal for many. While some prefer the cent. The difference is entirely due to the last flexibility that renting can offer, the stability of tenure offered 10 years, where house prices grew by 147 per cent and by home ownership and the sense of place obtained through household income just 57 per cent. owning your own home can be hard to beat. In actual dollar terms, the median house price in Australia With house prices outstripping income growth over the past more than doubled over the last decade - increasing from decade, owning a home has become less attainable. Figure $169,000 in 2001 to $417,500 in 2011. Conversely, the annual 1 shows that over the past two decades, growth in median median after-tax incomes for households increased by only house prices across Australia exceeded growth in median half - from $36,000 in 2001 to $57,000 in 20112 (see Figure 1). household income. During this period, house prices increased Figure 1 - Australian house prices and after-tax income (000s) (Index: 1991=100) 400 House price 350 Disposable 300 income 250 200 150 100 50 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Note: The median house price index was calculated using RP Data median house prices for Australia on an annual basis up to March of each year. RP Data house prices include all residential dwellings sold during the year. Median after-tax income was based on ABS Census estimates for 2001 and NATSEM modelled data for 2011. Numbers between 2001 and 2011 were interpolated and numbers prior to 2001 were indexed using growth in the ABS’ National Accounts Gross Disposable (after-tax) Income measure divided by households (cat no 5206.0). Source: NATSEM calculations. House prices are driven by supply and demand. Both have On the supply side, Australia is thought to have had a worked together over the past decade to push up the cost housing shortage in 2010 of around 180,000 dwellings and of land and subsequently house prices. this shortage is expected to increase over the coming years (National Housing Supply Council, 2010). The National Housing On the demand side the major factors that have lead to Supply Council blamed a limited and slow land release and the elevated housing prices include: impost of high taxation on new housing as the main factors – A sustained period of relatively low and stable interest rates limiting adequate supply. – A less regulated banking sector and easier finance with high Loan to Value Ratios3 Clearly, many factors are at play in Australia’s housing – Strong employment and income growth affordability problems, but the end result is house price – Strong population growth inflation. – Dual income families – A taxation system and social assistance program that encourages home ownership and investment (Yates 2010) 2. Median incomes tend to be significantly lower than average income measures due to the skewed nature of household income. The figures are based around ABS Census 2006 estimates uprated to 2011. The ABS does report some underestimation in this income measure (ABS 1). 3. A Loan to Value Ratio (LVR) is one of many measures used by financiers to determine the eligibility and risk associated with a loan. An LVR of 80 per cent is generally accepted as a healthy maximum LVR. Beyond that mortgage insurance is usually required by the mortgagor to protect them against the risk. 3 Measuring housing affordability This report uses two distinct measures of housing For these reasons we do not use the measure to compare affordability: housing stress and price to income ratio. household types or income groups, or other possible variables. For the remainder of this report, we use this affordability The housing stress measure describes how much households pay measure only for comparing regions. For this purpose alone as a proportion of income, so how much stress they are under to we believe the price to income measure is a reliable gauge repay their mortgage or rental costs. The price to income measure of affordability and the best available given data limitations. describes how difficult it is for the median household to purchase a typical dwelling. For both measures, a higher number indicates a So, what’s affordable and what’s not? less affordable housing market. A standard rule of thumb for housing affordability is that a ratio The housing stress measure is best for describing how hard it of housing costs to income beyond 30 per cent is unaffordable.