Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 1990-12 The rebirth of a world power? German unification and the future of European security Dickerson, Curtis Ross Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/27573 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun AD-A245 945 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California %p% SEB -0,LECTFhrRA D1 THESIS The Rebirth of a World Power? German Unification and the Future of European Security by Curtis Ross Dickerson December 1990 Thesis Advisor: Donald Abenhei Co-Advisor: David Winterfor 0I Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 92-03994 , !lll IIIIlUIli i ildII Uincassified SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMBINo 0704-0188 la REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION lb RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS UNCLASSIFIED 2a SECURITY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 3 DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY OF REPORT 2b DECLASSIFICATION /DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE Unlimited 4. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) 5 MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) 6a NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6b OFFICE SYMBOL 7a. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION (If applicable) Naval Postgraduate School ICode NS Naval Postgraduate School 6c. ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) 7b ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) Monterey, California 93943-5000 Monterey, California 93943-5000 8a NAME OF FUNDING/SPONSORING |8b OFFICE SYMBOL 9 PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBER ORGANIZATION (if applicable) 8c. ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) 10 SOURCE OF FUNDING NUMBERS PROGRAM PROJECT jTASK ~ WORK UNIT ELEMENT NO NO NO ACCESSION NO 11 TITLE (Include Security Classification) THE REBIRTH OF A WORLD POWER? GERMAN UNIFICATION AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN SECURITY 12 PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Dickerson, Curtis Ross 13a TYPE OF REPORT 13b TIME COVERED 114 DATE OF REPORT (YearMonthDay) 115 PAGE COUNT Master's Tisis IFROM TO December -1990 20 1fL SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION. The view expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the officia policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 17 COSATI CODES 18 SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) FIELD GROUP SUB-GROUP German unification, West German foreign and security policy, Federal Republic of Germany foreign and security policy, Central European securit , Euro ean securit (con 19 ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) German unification has altered the fundamentals of European and Atlantic security. The present thesis analyzes the past, present, and future of German power, paying parti- cular attention to the evolution of diplomacy and statecraft between Germany and the great powers in the period 1987-1990. This analysis is based, however, on a thorough examination of the role of Germany in the European states system from 1648 to the present. For no understanding of German power is possible without an astute appreciatio of the impact of the past on the present and the future. The main focus of the thesis thereafter falls upon the so-called "two plus four" diplomacy that got underway shortly after the collapse of the Berlin wall and reached its climax in July 1990. The final portion of the thesis analyzes such issues of con- temporary policy as: Germany and NATO; the future of nuclear and conventional weapons; Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE); and the future of diplomacy, statecraft, and strategy in an altered Europe. 20 DISTRIBUTION /AVAILABILITY OF ABSTRACT 21 ABSTRACT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION fUNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED 0-SAME AS RPT DTIC USERS ILMCAS&TTh 22. NAME OF ee22bRESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUAL TELEPHONE (nclude Area Code) I22c OFFICE SYMBOL Donald Abenheim (408) 646-2208 1 NS/AH DD Form 1473, JUN 86 Previous editions are obsolete. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE S/N 0102-LF-014-6603 Unclassified i Unclassified SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE Block 18 (cont.) Germany, German-European relations, "Two plus Four" diplomacy, NATO, NATO strategy, U.S.-German relations, U.S. strategy in Europe. DD Form 1473, JUN 86 (Reverse) SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE Unclassified ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The Rebirth of a World Power? German Unification and the Future of European Security by Curtis Ross Dickerson Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.A., University of New Mexico, 1980 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 1990 Author: A p p r o v e d b y : David Witerfo , Co-Advisor Thomas C. Bruneau, Chairman Department of National Security Affairs iii ABSTRACT German unification has altered the fundamentals of European and Atlantic security. The present thesis analyzes the past, present, and future of German power, paying particular attention to the evolution of diplomacy and statecraft between Germany and the great powers in the V period 1987-1990. This analysis is based, however, on a thorough examination of the role of Germany in the European states system from 1648 until the present. For no understanding of German power is possible without an astute appreciation of the impact of the past on the present and future. The main focus of the thesis thereafter falls upon the so-called "two plus four" diplomacy that got underway shortly after the collapse of the Berlin Wall and reached its climax in July 1990. The final portion of the thesis analyzes such issues of contemporary policy as: Germany and NATO; the future of nuclear and conventional weapons; Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE); a!,d the future of diplomacy, statecraft, and strategy c. an altered Europe. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ......................................... 1 II. THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE .......................... 10 A. THE EMERGENCE OF THE GREAT POWERS ............... 11 B. THE BALANCE OF POWER, 1815-1914 .................. 13 1. The Congress of Vienna Balance of Power, 1815-1854 ................................... 14 2. The Bismarckian System, 1970-1890 ........... 16 3. The Bipolar Alliance System, 1907-1914 ...... 19 C. GERMAN FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY AND THE CAUSES OF WORLD WAR II .......................... 22 D. SUMMARY OF THE FAILURE OF GERMAN FOREIGN POLICY TO 1945 .................................. 26 E. FRG FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY, 1945-1985 ...... 29 1. Adenauer Takes a Side, 1945-1955 ............ 31 2. Rearmament: Atomic Cannon Fodder? 1956-1953 ................................... 37 3. Adenauer's Policies Decay, 1963-1966 ........ 39 4. Time to Initiate a Change, 1966-1969 ........ 42 5. The SPD's Ostpolitik, 1969-1982 ............. 44 6. The CDU Back in Power, 1983-1985 ............ 48 F. SUMMARY OF THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE TO 1985... 50 III. GERMANY'S EMERGENCE AS A LEADER, 1985-1990 .......... 53 A. THE SEEDS OF A NEW ERA IN EUROPEAN STATECRAFT, 1985-1988 ........................... 54 v 1. Gorbachev's New Course, 1985-1988 ........... 55 2. The Effects of Gorbachev's Policies on the FRG, 1985-1988 .......................... 57 B. THE EUROPEAN REVOLUTION AND GERMANY'S EMERGENCE AS A LEADER, 1989-1990 ................ 60 1. The United Nations Speech, December 1988 .... 65 2. The Joint Declaration and the Strasbourg Address, June-July 1989 ..................... 67 3. The Exodus and Race to Monetary Union, August 1989-July 1990 ....................... 71 4. German Leadership at the Superpower Level: From Ottawa to Unification and the Gulf Crisis ...................................... 74 C. SUMMARY OF GERMANY'S EMERGENCE AS A LEADER, 1985-1990 ....................................... 78 IV. GERMAN POSITIONS ON EUROPEAN AND WORLD SECURITY ..... 82 A. EAST GERMANY .................................... 87 B. THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY ................. 91 1. The CDU/CSU ................................. 92 2. The FDP .................................... 112 3. The SPD .................................... 117 4. The Greens and the Republicans ............. 127 C. SUMMARY OF GERMAN PARTY POSITIONS ON EUROPEAN AND WORLD SECURITY .................. 129 V. THE BIG FOUR ....................................... 132 A. THE UNITED STATES .............................. 136 B. THE SOVIET UNION ............................... 143 vi C. FRANCE ..................... 149 D. THE UNITED KINGDOM............................... 152 E. SUMMARY OF THE BIG FOUR POSITIONS............... 157 VI. CONCLUSIONS........................................... 162 A. CONTINUITY AND CHANGE............................ 163 B. IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. STRATEGY IN EUROPE ........168 1. U.S. NATO Strategy........................... 171 2. CSCE.......................................... 176 3. Multilateral and Bilateral Relations ........176 4. The Impact of the Past on the Present and the Future............................... 178 GLOSSARY OF TERMS........................................... 181 APPENDIX: CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS, 1989-1990................ 183 BIBLIOGRAPHY................................................ 186 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST.................................. 193 Aeio n.Fr rNrJS CRA&I D-1O TiAB Unarno,;-edior; AStcon vii I. INTRODUCTION At 12:00 midnight on 3 October 1990, amid the light of fireworks, fanfares of classical choral overtures, splashes of champagne and one million German revelers, the city of Berlin celebrated the unification of Germany and the end to 45 years