Laboring to Win: The ALP’s Defeat at the Cunningham By-election (2002) A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY by Scott Denton B.A. (Hons.) SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES 2010 ii STATEMENT OF ORIGINALITY I, Scott Denton, hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project’s design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged. Signed: Date: iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of tables, graphs, maps, diagrams and illustrations vi-ix List of abbreviations x Acknowledgements xi Abstract xii Map of the Cunningham Electorate xiii Introduction 1-32 Thesis description and aims 1 PART ONE: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY 1.1 The role of by-election research in Australia and internationally 3 1.2 Causes and trends in relation to federal by-elections 6 1.3 Thesis Methodology 8 1.4 Data Sources 10 PART TWO: OVERVIEW OF THE CUNNINGHAM ELECTORATE, ITS POLITICAL HISTORY AND THE CAUSES OF THE BY-ELECTION 2.1 Cunningham electorate: demographics, and political history 13 2.2 Causes and consequences: Martin’s resignation and Bird’s 15 candidature PART THREE: THE CUNNINGHAM CANDIDATES: EVALUATING THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO THE BY-ELECTION RESULT 3.1 The candidates and ballot paper 19 3.2 Michael Organ: ‘Community activist’ 20 3.3 Peter Wilson: ‘Union candidate’ 23 3.4 David Moulds: ‘Pseudo Liberal’ 24 3.5 Class politics: Dispelling the myth of the absence of a Liberal 26 candidate as the reason for the ALP’s defeat PART FOUR: CHAPTER SUMMARY 30 Chapter One: Pragmatic Modernisation and its Electoral 34-77 Consequences at the Cunningham By-election Introduction 34 PART ONE: HISTORICAL ASSESSMENTS OF PRAGMATISM IN THE LABOR PARTY 1.1.1 Labor’s pragmatic propensity prior to the Cunningham by-election 35 1.1.2 The rationale of pragmatic modernisation 41 1.1.3 The impact of pragmatic modernisation on Labor identity 47 1.1.4 The problem of pragmatism on policy and electoral strategies 51 1.1.5 The rationale for middle-class votes: The key arguments 54 PART TWO: THE POLICY PROBLEMS CONFRONTING THE ALP 2001- 2002 1.2.1 Policy in relation to the 2001 General Election: A view from 59 within 1.2.2 Labor’s pragmatic policy responses in 2002 63 PART THREE: THE CUNNINGHAM BY-ELECTION - KEY POLITICAL ISSUES AND LABOR’S PRAGMATIC RESPONSES 1.3.1 Labor’s pragmatic policy approaches at the Cunningham by- 67 election Conclusion 75 iv Chapter Two: The Hawke-Wran Review and its Impact on the 78-123 Cunningham by-election Introduction 78 PART ONE: HISTORY OF LABOR REVIEWS - FROM THE WYNDHAM REVIEW TO THE HAWKE WRAN REVIEW 2.1.1 The pragmatic and symbolic nature of internal reviews 81 PART TWO: THE THREE CONTESTED ASPECTS OF THE HAWKE WRAN REVIEW AND THEIR CONSEQUENCES FOR THE CUNNINGHAM BY- ELECTION 2.2.1 Issue One: The Union-ALP Relationship and the 50/50 rule 89 change 2.2.2 Crean’s rationalisation for union reform: A referendum on 92 leadership 2.2.3 The South Coast Labour Council: A local labour regime 96 2.2.4 Issue Two: Branch-stacking, factionalism and preselections 105 2.2.5 Branch-stacking, factionalism, and preselections in Cunningham 112 2.2.6. Issue Three: The Quota System 115 2.2.7 Selecting Sharon Bird: Exposing the hypocrisy of the 2002 116 Review Conclusion 121 Chapter Three: The Labor Oligarchy and its Consequences for the 124-178 Cunningham by-election Introduction 124 PART ONE: OLIGARCHY AND THE LABOR EXECUTIVE 3.1.1 Michels’ Oligarchy: Leadership, officials and the bureaucracy 128 3.1.2 The ALP Oligarchy: leadership, officials, bureaucracy, factions 129 3.1.3 The Labor Oligarchy in Cunningham 139 PART TWO: OLIGARCHY AND LABOR MEMBERSHIP 3.2.1 Michels’ Oligarchy: The declining power of the rank-and-file 147 3.2.2 The ALP Oligarchy: The defunct executive-branch relationship 149 3.2.3 The decline in democratic rank-and-file participation in 153 Cunningham PART THREE: OLIGARCHY AND LABOR POLICY 3.3.1 Michels’ Oligarchy: The ‘death of idealism’ 159 3.3.2 The ALP oligarchy: Elections and policy 160 3.3.3 Cunningham by-election: Policy on the campaign trail 167 Conclusion 174 Chapter Four: Demographics and Partisan De-Alignment – The 179-225 Isolation of the Labor Party in Cunningham Introduction 179 PART ONE: DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS: CUNNINGHAM ELECTORATE 4.1.1 Post-war migration and ethnicity 183 4.1.2 Educational attainment 186 4.1.3 Employment patterns 188 4.1.4 Wages and Incomes 192 4.1.5 Home ownership and housing prices 194 PART TWO: DEMOGRAPHICS, POLITICAL IDENTITY AND VOTING BEHAVIOUR 4.2.1 Aspirational voters 198 4.2.2 Anti-aspirational voters 201 v PART THREE: EVIDENCE OF CLUSTER VOTING IN CUNNINGHAM AND ITS CONSEQUENCES FOR THE LABOR PARTY 4.3.1 Demographic and voting profile: Austinmer and Michael Organ 206 4.3.2 Demographic and voting profile: Mt Kembla and David Moulds 209 4.3.3 Demographic and voting profile: Bellambi and Sharon Bird 214 PART FOUR: COMPARATIVE VOTING DATA FOR NEIGHBOURING FEDERAL SEATS - THE RISE OF THE GREENS OR WAS CUNNINGHAM AN ANOMALY? Conclusion 223 Chapter Five: Lost Labor Votes – The Impact of Informal Voting 226-265 on the Cunningham By-election Result Introduction 226 PART ONE: INFORMAL VOTING - NATIONAL AND LOCAL ASPECTS 5.1.1 Definitions, causes and trends at general and by-elections 228 5.1.2 Scrutineer Observations: Cunningham by-election 235 5.1.3 Comparative informal voting: local, state and federal elections 237 PART TWO: REASONS FOR INFORMAL VOTING – VOTER CONFUSION AND VOTER METHODS AND SOCIOLOGICAL FACTORS 5.2.1 Political aspects of informal voting 240 5.2.2 Cunningham by-election: electoral factors and informal voting 243 5.2.3 Sociological aspects of informal voting: NESB voters and 248 disputed returns 5.2.4 Cunningham electorate: The demographics of NESB voters 250 5.2.5 Sociological aspects of informal voting: Socio-economics 255 PART THREE: INFORMAL VOTING - ‘LOST’ LABOR VOTES 5.3.1 Cunningham ten-booth analysis 257 5.3.2 Cunningham electorate-wide analysis 261 Conclusion 262 Chapter Six: The Preference Lockout - Putting Labor Last 266-321 Introduction 266 PART ONE: TRENDS IN PRIMARY AND PREFERENCE VOTING - IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LABOR PARTY, NATIONALLY AND LOCALLY 6.1.1 Trends in the ALP and Green vote in Cunningham prior to 2002 269 6.1.2 Trends in ALP and Green preferences and rising Green votes 272 6.1.3 The preference lockout: 2002 by-election 274 PART TWO: 1999 CUNNINGHAM REDISTRIBUTION - AN EVALUATION OF THE PREFERENCE FLOWS IN THE REDISTRIBUTION ZONE 6.2.1 An evaluation of the preference flows in the redistribution zone 277 PART THREE: EVALUATING THE EVIDENCE OF AN ELECTORATE- WIDE PREFERENCE LOCKOUT, ITS CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES 6.3.1 Preference arrangements by candidate, Cunningham by-election 284 6.3.2 ALP backflip on preferences: Reactions and consequences 288 6.3.3 David Moulds: Evidence of a strategic preference lockout 289 6.3.4 Debunking the role of Peter Wilson in splitting the Labor vote 292 6.3.5 Ballot paper position as a factor in Labor’s lack of preferences 295 6.3.6 Trends in independent voting and preferencing 296 PART FOUR: FULL DISTRIBUTION OF PREFERENCES 298 Conclusion 317 Conclusion 322-338 Bibliography 339-366 Appendices 367 vi LIST OF TABLES, GRAPHS, MAPS, DIAGRAMS AND ILLUSTRATIONS Page Table 4.1: Demographic changes in relation to ethnicity: Wollongong LGA 186 1991, 1996, 2001, Cunningham 2001, Australia 2001, as a percentage of population Table 4.2: Levels of educational attainment by sex, Cunningham 2001 187 Census compared to total percentage by persons Australia 2001 Census data Table 4.3: Employment by industry sector, Wollongong LGA, 1996-2001 190 Table 4.4: Total number of persons employed by industry, Cunningham 191 2001, as a percentage of the total Cunningham workforce Table 4.5: Weekly individual incomes, Wollongong LGA 1996 and 2001, 193 Cunningham 2001, Australia 2001, as a percentage of total wage earners Table 4.6: Monthly housing loan repayments (as a percentage of 194 mortgagees) and weekly rental rates (as a percentage of renters), Cunningham 2001, comparison with national rates (as a percentage of national renters) Table 4.7: Comparison of key social and economic indicators for three 205 largest booths as a percentage of the vote by the three most successful candidates at the 2002 Cunningham by-election, compared with key social and economic indicators for Cunningham 2001 Table 4.8: Booth results of first preference votes and distribution of 207 preferences, Austinmer booth, Cunningham by-election 2002 Table 4.9: Booth results of first preference votes and distribution of 211 preferences, Mt Kembla booth, Cunningham by-election 2002 Table 4.10: Booth results of first preference votes and distribution of 215 preferences, Bellambi booth, Cunningham by-election 2002 Table 4.11: Comparison of primary vote and swing for neighbouring 222 federal electorates, 2001 and 2004 Table 4.12: Primary vote and swing