th 19 August 2019 (Monday) Updated as at 17th August 2019 19th AUGUST 2019 [MONDAY] A1.00 8.50 AM – 10.00 AM - Plenary Hall SIPS-2235: 2018 International Prize in Statistics Winner Lecture Organiser & Chair: Helen MacGillivray Discussants: Susan Ellenberg, Noel Cressie, Anthony Davison Prediction, estimation, and attribution Bradley Efron, Stanford University, USA Professor of Statistics and Biostatistics Abstract: The scientific needs and computational limitations of the Twentieth Century fashioned classical statistical methodology. Both the needs and limitations have changed in the Twenty-First, and so has the methodology. Large-scale prediction algorithms - neural nets, deep learning, boosting, support vector machines, random forests - have achieved star status in the popular press. They are recognizable as heirs to the regression tradition, but ones carried out at enormous scale and on titanic data sets. How do these algorithms compare with standard regression techniques such as Ordinary Least Squares or logistic regression? Several key discrepancies will be examined, centering on the difference between prediction and estimation or attribution (significance testing.) Knowledge of prediction algorithms is not assumed. 1 19th AUGUST 2019 [MONDAY] B1.00 Panellists 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM - Plenary Hall Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Norwegian Computing Center, Norway STS-479: Leveraging South-South Cooperation in the Wendy Martinez, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Modernization of Official Statistics Towards Washington, USA Supporting the Production of SDG Indicators Organiser: Ahmad Mohamad Hussein B1.02 Chair: Saleh Al Nabit 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM - Banquet Hall Discussant: Mohd Uzir Mahidin IPS-65: Statistics in Forensic Science Modernization and monitoring SDGs in Organiser: Tamanna Howlader area of conflicts or in fragile conditions Chair: Paulo Canas Rodrigues Ola Awad, Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, State of Palestine The critical role of statistics in Forensic Science Karen Kafadar, University of Virginia, USA Prioritisation of Sustainable Development Goals and efforts of SESRIC to support statistical Estimating damages in the largest EU cartel case modernisation in OIC member countries Svetlana Borovkova, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam / Nebil Dabur, Statistical, Economic and Social Probability & Partners, Netherlands Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries Expert evidence: civil law, epidemiology and data (SESRIC), Turkey quality Modernisation of statistical systems - Experiences Jane L Hutton, University of Warwick, UK of GCC-Stat Sabir Al Harbi, GCC Statistical Center, Saudi Arabia B1.03 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM - Conference Hall 1 Morocco’s experience in South/South cooperation and statistical capacity building STS-564: Integrating Micro- and Macro-Data for Belkacem Abdous, High Commission for Planning, Better Credit Assessment Morocco Organiser: Eric Chin Chair: Dennis Martin Modernization of the Tunisian Statistical System and its impact on statistical production for SDGs Developing a world-class credit reporting Hedi Saidi, National Institute Statistics of Tunisia industry in Malaysia: Challenges and the way forward B1.01 Eric Chin, CTOS Data Systems Sdn Bhd, Malaysia 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM - Ballroom 2 Credit assessment: From a credit provider's IPS-355: ISI History Session perspective Organiser & Chair: Peter Guttorp Vincent Mok, CIMB Bank Berhad, Malaysia Elizabeth L. Scott: A portrait of the statistician as CCRIS and its role in promoting financial stability a young woman Rosnizam Saari, Bank Negara Malaysia Amanda L Golbeck, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, USA B1.04 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM - Conference Hall 2 Steve O. Rice (1907 – 1986) – Inspired by random noise, inspiring statistics research IPS-178: For Better Statistics; Good Communication Georg Lindgren, Lund University, Sweden Between Users and Compilers Organiser: Bruno Tissot A view on 50 years of life of the ISI: (With a focus Chair: Naruki Mori on ISI relations with official statistics) Jean-Louis Bodin, Former ISI President, France Communicating on Lebanese inflation: Deciphering the impact of imported inflation Sana Antoine Souaid Jad, Central Bank of Lebanon 2 19th AUGUST 2019 [MONDAY] The importance of communication between B1.06 compilers and users in improving the quality of 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM – Plenary Theatre Auditorium statistics: The Bank of Japan’s experience STS-2533: Big Data Analytics Kuniko Moriya, Bank of Japan Organiser: Ahmad Razlan Alias Bringing users and compilers together – effective Chair: Siti Haslinda Mohd Din building on data driven supervision Big data analytics for 21st Century learning Tim Danner, Netherlands Bank Badrul Hisam Besri, TM ONE, Malaysia Stakeholder engagement throughout the statistical value chain – views from South Africa B1.07 Barend Christoffel de Beer, South African Reserve 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM - Meeting Room 301 Bank IPS-254: Stratified Psychiatry and Precision Medicine Let’s talk! – Communicating statistics across Organiser: Thaddeus Tarpeynyior Europe through the DIGICOM programme Chair: Todd Ogden Sybille Luhmann, Eurostat, Luxembourg Handling missing scalar and functional data in Internal communication with users at the integrative analysis with applications to mental Deutsche Bundesbank: Improving statistics and health research analytics Adam Ciarlegio, George Washington University, USA Stephan Müller, Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany Statistical modeling for psychiatric nosology Thaddeus Tarpey, New York Universtiy, USA B1.05 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM - Conference Hall 3 Functional data analysis for activity profiles from wearable devices IPS-29: Statistical Meta-Analysis with Applications in Ian McKeague, Columbia University, USA Health Sciences Organiser & Chair: Shahjahan Khan Sequential assessment strategies for making Discussants: Louise M Ryan, Suhail A R Doi individual treatment decisions Eva Petkova, New York University, USA Perioperative outcomes of Laparoscopic Assisted Rectal Resection (LARR) vs Open Rectal Resection B1.08 (ORR) for carcinoma: A meta-analysis and 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM - Meeting Room 302 systematic review Muhammed Ashraf Memon, University of IPS-153: Transforming Population and Migration Queensland, Australia Statistics with Administrative Data Organiser: Ann Blake Meta-analysis and systematic review of Chair: Robert Bumpstead randomized controlled trials comparing Laparoscopic Roux-En-Y Gastric Bypass (LRYGB) Population estimation from administrative versus Laparoscopic Vertical Sleeve Gastrectomy sources; discussion of some of the (LVSG) for weight loss outcomes methodological challenges with potential Rossita M Yunus, University of Malaya, Malaysia solutions James Brown, University of Technology Sydney, The Doi plot and the LFK index for detecting bias Australia in meta-analysis Luis Furuya-Kanamori, Australian National University International approaches to admin-based population estimates (Office for National Selecting the best meta-analytic estimator for Statistics, UK) epidemiology: A simulation study Becky Tinsley, Office of National Statistics, UK Suhail A R Doi, Qatar University 3 19th AUGUST 2019 [MONDAY] Progress in New Zealand using linked Covariance based moment equations for administrative sources for the census and improved variance component estimation population statistics Sanjay Chaudhuri, National University of Singapore Christine Bycroft, Statistics New Zealand B1.11 Estimation of Gross Population Flows when 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM - Meeting Room 305 Statistical Population Datasets (SPDs) are incomplete IPS-147: Building Future Generations of Statisticians John Dunne, Central Statistics Office, Ireland through Outreach Organiser: Ayse Aysin Bombaci Bilgin UK progress on putting administrative data at the Chair: Caterina Primi core of migration statistics Discussant: Manfred Borovnick Jay Lindop, Office for National Statistics, UK Epidemiological concepts as a foundation for B1.09 inductive reasoning in harnessing the potential of 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM - Meeting Room 303 big data for evidence-based healthcare Rossi Hassad, Mercy College, USA IPS-115: Statistical and Data Literacy Education for Life Statistics: your ticket to anywhere! Organiser: Helen MacGillivray Ayse Aysin Bombaci Bilgin, Macquarie University, Chair: John Harraway Australia Discussant: Gail Burrill Systems thinking for statistics education Peter Howley, Newcastle University, Australia ISLP challenges alternative truths Reija Helenius, Statistics Finland Reinventing a design game to teach real world data skills through simulated data Turning data users into data scientists David Stern, University of Reading, UK Matthew Parry, University of Otago, New Zealand Creating data-rich tools for decision makers: The B1.12 case of the constituency explorer 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM - Meeting Room 306 James Robert Nicholson, University of Durham, UK IPS-294: Increasing Domain Experts’ Engagement Getting the foundations right with Statistics Through Statistical Collaboration Laboratories Helen MacGillivray, ISI President Organiser: Eric Vance B1.10 Chair: Atinuke Olusola Adebanji 10.30 AM – 12.30 PM - Meeting Room 304 Discussant: Eric Vance IPS-192: Providing Official Statistics for Small Areas University - Industry partnerships: Experiences Organiser: Balgobin Nandram from India Chair: Ray Chambers Bhaswati Ganguli, University of Calcutta, India A Bayesian approach to providing official The impact of statistical collaboration center on statistics for wards in the Nepal census non – statistician, Wolkite