The Carl Beck Papers in Russian & East European Studies Number 1207 Richard H. Rowland Regional Population Trends in the Former USSR, 1939-51, and the Impact of World War II Ridlard B. Rowland is Professor of the Department of Geography at California State University, San Bernardino. He would like to thank Jane Rowland for her excellent typing. No. 1207, August, 1997 c 1997 by The Center for Russian and East European Studies, a program of the University Center for International Studies, University of Pittsburgh ISSN 0889-275X The Carl Beck Papers Editors: William Chase, Bob Donnorummo, Ronald H. Linden Managing Editor: Eileen L. O'Malley Cover design: Mike Savitski Submissions to The Carl Beck Papers are welcome. Manuscripts must be in English, double­ spaced throughout, and less than 120 pages in length. Acceptance is based on anonymous review. Mail submissions to: Editor, The Carl Beck Papers, Center for Russian and East European Studies, 40-17 Forbes Quadrangle, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260. Introduction The Soviet Union probably suffered greater population losses than any other country during World War II. Estimated deaths plus estimates of nonbirths place total population losses at probably more than 40 million. I Although the last census of the USSR prior to the war was taken in 1939, or fairly close to the eve ofthe war, the first postwar census was not completed until twenty years later in 1959 or nearly fifteen years after the end of the war, by which time the prewar population had been reached and surpassed by nearly 20 million.' Fortunately, however, reflecting the substantial increase in the publication of historical data on the USSR since the mid-1980s, both national and regional population estimates have been published in the late 1980s for 1951 in Naseleniye SSSR. 1987.3 They include estimates not only for the total population, but for the urban and rural populations as well. These 1951 data thus take on special significance because they are the earliest post-World War II official and comprehensive estimates of the regional population and allow for the temporally closest investigation of the impact of World War II on regional population trends. Indeed, as will be seen, the 1951 population was still clearly below that of either 1939 or 1959 and much closer to the nadir of World War II than to the 1959 level. Moreover, the eastward deportation ofmany nationalities in association with the war was more detectable in the 1951 data. Accordingly, the purpose of my essay is to describe and analyze broadly regional total, urban, and rural population trends in the former USSR during 1939-51. In addition, I will investigate regional population distribution, redistribution, and urbanization, as well as make comparisons with other periods, both preceding and subsequent. My regional framework is the nineteen economic regions of the USSR in 1961, which I have used in other studies (Fig. 1).4 These regions have in turn been amalgamated into two sets of larger macroregions: the Western and Eastern USSR, as 1 well as four quadrants. These four include Northern European USSR, which is largely the forested areas of European Russia, as well as the Baltic States, Belarus, and northern Ukraine; the European Steppe, or regions along the Black Sea, including the southern Ukraine and southern European Russia; the Russian East or "Siberia," the area of Russia east of the Ural Mountains to the Pacific Ocean; and the Non-Slavic South, the chiefly Moslem and desert areas in the south. Although I will emphasize macroregion and economic region trends, relevant subregional or oblast-Ievel trends will also be highlighted. Data Problems and Adjustments Although recently published regional population estimates for 1951 are the chief stimulus for this study, in very recent years the seemingly more reliable census data for 1939 have become quite controversial. In particular, somewhat contemporaneous with the recently published results from the previously repressed census of 1937, it has been generally estimated that the actual population of the Soviet Union in 1939 was roughly 2-3 million less than the official January 1939 census population. More specifically, the 1939 census has been recently published retrospectively.' Previously, the chief source of the 1939 data was that published in limited fashion in the 1959 census.6 Furthermore, some of these recent publications have included critical discussions of, and adjustments to, the official published results of the 1939 census, as have a number of other, sometimes overlapping, sources.' These sources come to roughly the same conclusion. Namely, the adjusted population of the USSR in January 1939 was probably about 167.3-168.9 million, or 2-3 million less than the "inflated" official 170.6 million actually published in the census." It is generally believed that the official 1939 figure was used in order to conceal the population losses associated with the collectivization, famines, and purges of the 1930s.9 2 However, as can be readily determined, the difference of 2-3 million actually represents only about 1-2percent ofwhichever 1939 population is used. In comparison, there was probably a difference of 5 million (2 percent) between the official population reported in the 1990 census of the United States (249 million) and the probable actual population (254 million). 10 Therefore, the error or inflation ofthe official 1939 census total is not necessarily that great. It should also be noted that the official 170.6 million-based 1939 results have continued to be used, even very recently in a 1993 article by a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.II A further problem concerns the estimate of the 1939 population in postwar boundaries, namely, those of 1951, 1959, and subsequently to the end of the USSR in 1991, or in the area of the current fifteen independent states combined. Following the German invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939, the USSR quickly expanded, even­ tually regaining some areas such as the western Ukraine, western Belorussia, and the Baltic States, plus annexing other areas, albeit small, which had never been part ofthe Russian Empire or the USSR, such as part of East Prussia. Altogether, these areas, as will be seen, contained more than 20 million people. According to 1939 data published in the 1959 census in the early 1960s, the 1939 population in 1959 boundaries was 190,677,890 as compared to 170,557,093 in January 1939 boundaries, or 20.1 million more. The 1939 population in 1959 boundaries was again used in the major publication in the 1970s that will also be utilized in this paper (190,678,000).12 However, studies which I have conducted, beginning in the mid-1960s, long ago adjusted for the fact that the 190 million+ figure did not include populations for Kaliningrad Oblast of Russia (part of East Prussia); Zakarpatskaya or Transcarpathia Oblast of the southwest of the western Ukraine (Karpatoruss or Ruthenia of Czechoslovakia); the southern part of Sakhalin Oblast of the Far East (Karafuto of Japan); and the Tuva Republic of East Siberia." Altogether, these four areas had a combined estimated population of roughly 2.4 million people (2,399,255), bringing the total estimated 1939 population in recent boundaries of the USSR to 193,077,145. 14 3 Thus, the 1939 population in the postwar boundaries should be roughly 22.5 million morethanany 1939 population inJanuary 1939boundaries, notjust 20.1 million more. Although some of the studies noted earlier have also attempted to adjust downward the 1939 population for later rather than January 1939 boundaries, peculiarly, it still appears that eventhese estimates for the postwar USSR still do not include the population of these four areas. Estimates by Andreyev, Darskiy, and Khar'kova generally result in a population of roughly 188-189 million (188.2 and 188.8) or about 2 million less than the originally published 190.7 million. IS This is basically in accordance with their downward adjustment of approximately 2 million from 170.6 million to roughly 168.4-168.9 million." Indeed, although they acknowledge the incorporation of these four areas, they still peculiarly arrive at a figure of only 188-189 million." Furthermore, even official statistical publications at the end of the Sovietperiodstill used the 190,678,000 figure and thus did not include estimates for these four areas. 18 Furthermore, whether the 1939 population is estimated at 167-169 million or 170 million makes very little difference in the overall average annual change rate of the population between 1939 and 1951. Asnoted above, ourestimated 1939 population for the USSR in its postwar boundaries was roughly 193.1 million. Since, as just noted, the revised population for the USSR as of 1939 in currentboundaries has been estimated at, more specifically, 188-189 million, or roughly 2 million less than the official 190.7 million, this revised downward-adjusted 1939 population plus East Prussia, Karpatoruss, Karafuto, and Tuva could be then estimated at about 191.2 million." This figure would entail a change rate of -0.4 percent per year to 181.6 million in 1951, which is virtually the same as the -0.5 rate based on 193.1 million, which will be used in this study (table 1). Even if the 1939 total was further downgraded to one based on the "original" figure of 167.3 million, which is accepted by some, the expanded 1939 total of 189.8 million rather than 191.2 or 193.1 million would resultin a nearly comparable average annual rateof change of -0.3 percentper year." Thesenegligible differences in the 1939-51 growth rates, along with the fact 4 that the percentage error was not extraordinarily great (only approximately 1 percent), make it possible to conclude that the official 1939 data can still be used.