Master’s Thesis 2020 30 ECTS Noragric The Estrada Doctrine: The Resilience and Evolution of a Key Instrument of Mexican Foreign Policy Luis Ignacio Gutierrez Reyes Retana MSc International Relations The Estrada Doctrine: The Resilience and Evolution of a Key Instrument of Mexican Foreign Policy June 2020 NMBU By: Luis Ignacio Gutierrez Reyes Retana 1 The Department of International Environment and Development Studies, NORAGRIC, is the international gateway for the Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU). Established in 1986, NORAGRIC’s contribution to international development lies in the interface between research, education (Bachelor, Master and PhD programs) and assignments. The NORAGRIC Master thesis is the final thesis submitted by students in order to fulfil the requirements under the NORAGRIC Master program “International Environmental Studies”, “Development Studies” and “International Relations”. The findings in this thesis do not necessarily reflect the views of NORAGRIC. Extracts from this publication may only be reproduced after prior consultation with the author and on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation contact NORAGRIC. © Luis Ignacio Gutierrez Reyes Retana, June, 2020 [email protected] NORAGRIC Department of International Environment and Development Studies The Faculty of Landscape and Society P.O. Box 5003 N-1432 Ås Norway Phone: +47 67 23 00 00 Fax: +47 67 23 06 91 Website: https://www.nmbu.no/en/faculty/landsam/department/noragric 2 Declaration: I, Luis Ignacio Gutierrez Reyes Retana, declare that this thesis is a result of my research investigation and findings. Sources of information other than my own have been acknowledged and a reference list has been appended. This work has not been previously submitted to any other university for award of any kind of academic degree. Signature: Date: 3 Table of contents Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………6 List of acronyms……………………………………………………………………….7 Section I: Introduction, Methodology and Theoretical Approach 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………...9 1.1 Contextualizing the Estrada Doctrine………………………………………..12 1.2 Research Questions………………………………………………………….18 1.3 Structure of the thesis………………………………………………………..19 1.4 Theoretical approaches………………………………………………………19 2. Methodology………………………………………………………………...25 2.1 Research design……………………………………………………………..25 2.2 Sampling approaches…………………………………………………….….27 2.3 Methods for data collection…………………………………………………27 2.4 Data analysis, four hypotheses………………………………………………30 2.5 Ethical considerations………………………………………………………..31 Section II: The Estrada Doctrine origins and historical use. 3. The Estrada doctrine…………………………………………………………32 3.1 Background………………………………………………………………….32 3.2 The conception and rise of the Estrada Doctrine…………………………….35 Section III: The evolution of the Estrada Doctrine. 4. FPCh Levels of explanation…………………………………………………37 4.1 The International System……………………………………………………..37 4.1.2 The symbiotic relationship between Mexico and the United States (The Remora and the Shark)…………………………………………………………………………….38 4.1.3 Event based International System Analysis………………………………40 4.1.3.1 The aftermath of WWI and the league of nations………………………..40 4 4.1.3.2 WWII, UN and “The Mexican miracle”……………………………… 42 4.1.3.3 The end of the Cold War ………………………………………………44 4.1.3.4 The Attack on the Twin Towers: 9/11…………………………………46 4.1.3.5 Populism, conservatism and nationalist driven foreign policies………49 4.1.4 Theorizing (IR) the evolution of the Estrada Dictrine in the international system. 4.2 Individual Leader (Decision Maker)……………………………………51 4.2.1 Lazaro Cardenas del Rio, the Oil Expropiation and the Spanish exile...53 4.2.2 Carlos Salinas de Gortari, NAFTA and the economic expansion………56 4.2.3 Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the reestablishment of the “Original” Estrada Doctrine……………………………………………………………………………60 4.3 Domestic Factors……………………………………………………….63 4.3.1 Analysing the impact of regime change ………………………………..64 4.4 Constitutional and normative Changes…………………………………69 4.4.1 The principle of Non-intervention………………………………………69 4.4.2 Mexico and Human Rights………………………………………………72 4.4.3 The dilemma of the UN Peacekeeping operations………………………75 4.4.4 Normative current standpoint of the Estrada doctrine…………………..77 Section IV: The actual use of the Estrada Doctrine. 5. The current implementation of the Estrada doctrine……………………...78 5.1 Estrada Doctrine For Whom?.....................................................................78 5.2 The Estrada Doctrine in praxis…………………………………………………81 5.3 Three situations, three different application of doctrine…………………..84 6. Conclusions……………………………………………………………….88 7. References…………………………………………………………………94 5 Akcnowledgments My eternal gratitude to my supervisor, John Andrew McNeish for agreeing to supervise this project and for giving me very useful guidance on both content and writing. Besides his valuable comments, suggestions and patience. I extend my gratitude to all the interviewees who gave me their time and willingness, without their valuable participation this thesis would not have been possible. To NMBU for this precious opportunity to be part of MSc International Relations, and to my fellow students and teachers, who have undoubtedly contributed to developing academic and personal perspectives, thank you very much. To my wife Ida, my motivation to achieve this end. Thank you. 6 List of Acronyms IO, International Organization NGO, Non-Governmental Organization FPA, Foreign Policy Analysis FPCh, Foreign Policy Change IR, International Relations AMLO, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador PROMEXICO, Promoción de Mexico FDI, Foreign Direct Investment US, United States FP, Foreign Policy SRE, Secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores RQ, Research Question SRQ, Sub Research question CIDE CPEUM, Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos EU, European Union WWI, World War I WWII, World War II UN, United Nations Km, Kilometres GDP, Gross Domestic Product IMF, International Monetary Fund OECD, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development TWB, The World Bank 7 FTA, Free Trade Agreement APRI, Agreement for the Promotion and Reciprocal Protection of Investment WTO, World Trade Organization APEC, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Mecanism SEGOB, Secretaria de Gobierno NAFTA, North American Free Trade Agreement USMCA, United Statesm Mexico and Canada Agreement PEMEX, Petroleos Mexicanos OPANAL, Agency for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean USSR, IM, Merida Initiative TCO, Transnational Organized Crime organizations PNR, Partido Nacional revolucionario PRI, Partido Revolucionario Institucional PAN, Partido Accion Nacional PRD, Partido de la Revolucion Democratica CTM, Confederacion de Trabajadores de Mexico UNAM, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico SHCP, Secretaria de Hacienda y Credito Publico INI, Instituto Nacional Indigena MORENA, Movimiento de Regeneracion Nacional IPADE, El Instituto Panamericano de Alta Dirección de Empresa OEA, Organización de Estados Americanos CNDH, Comision Nacional de los Derechos Humanos UPR, Universal Periodic 8 Section I: Introduction, Methodology and Theoretical Approach 1. Introduction In recent months, decisions regarding the foreign policy of Mexico have been in the world’s "spotlight". The unrestricted support granted to Nicolas Maduro´s regime in Venezuela and the asylum eagerly granted to Evo Morales condemning an alleged coup d'état in Bolivia, have highlighted the imminently pro-left and populist character of the government led by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The president and his secretary of foreign relations Marcelo Ebrard explain these political decisions through their adoption or re-adoption of the “Original” Estrada Doctrine, which according to their interpretation had been corrupted during previous neoliberal governments. One of Lopez Obrador´s campaign slogans was that “there’s no better foreign policy than the domestic policy,”. This was intended as a political statement to signal that a country like Mexico should take into account its own interests and own social conditions when conducting foreign policy. This sudden implementation of the Estrada doctrine core original principles and an emphasis on domestic policy raises internal and international doubts about the current situation of the Mexico’s foreign policy. The importance that the current government gives to the implementation of the Estrada doctrine as a guide for Mexican foreign policy requires further consideration. In this thesis I aim to study the current implementation of the Doctrine and to explore the changes that have been made to this key instrument of Mexican foreign policy leading up to the present. The Estrada Doctrine is one of the most important international policy doctrines in America, which responded to a time of decolonization, revolution and intervention. It is still in force in Mexico today, where historical experiences have shaped the national identity behind foreign policy and forged a path toward its institutionalization based on the goal of maintaining a neutral profile with regards to international and internal problems since its constitutional status (1988). Article 89. Fr X of the Mexican Constitution emphasize principles of non-intervention, self‐ determination, peaceful conflict resolution, the condemnation of the use of force, legal equality between states, international peace and security, international development cooperation and more recently respect, protection, and promotion of human rights.