Universitas Padjadjaran INACA WHITE PAPER PROJECTED RECOVERY OF THE AVIATION INDUSTRY TOWARDS THE NEW NORMAL COOPERATION OF UNIVERSITAS PADJADJARAN (UNPAD) INACA Members INACA White Paper 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................... 3 LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF PICTURES .............................................................................................................................................................. 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................. 6 I. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................................. 8 II. HEALTH ASPECT ............................................................................................................................. .............................. 16 NATIONAL VACCINATION PROGRAM STRATEGY AND POLICY .......................................................... 16 Planning of COVID-19 Vaccination Needs ................................................................................................... 18 Target of the Implementation of the COVID-19 Vaccination .......................................................... 18 Distribution of COVID-19 Vaccines, Supporting Equipment, and Logistics ............................... 19 Implementation of the COVID-19 Vaccination Services ...................................................................... 19 Cooperation in the Implementation of the COVID-19 Vaccination ............................................ 20 Monitoring and Overcoming Adverse Events Post COVID-19 Vaccination ............................ 20 Communication Strategy .......................................................................................................................................... 20 Recording and Reporting ......................................................................................................................................... 21 Funding .................................................................................................................................................................................. 21 Guidance and Supervision ............................................................................................................................. .......... 21 VACCINE DISTRIBUTION STRATEGIES AND POLICIES ................................................................................... 22 STRATEGIES AND POLICIES FOR OVERCOMING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC .............................. 25 NATIONAL VACCINATION PROGRAM IN ORDER TO SUPPORT THE AVIATION INDUSTRY ... 26 III. ECONOMIC STIMULUS FOR THE AVIATION INDUSTRY .......................................................................... 29 NATIONAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY STRATEGIES AND POLICIES ......................................................... 31 Fiscal ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 33 Non-Fiscal ............................................................................................................................................................................ 36 Monetary and Financial Sector ............................................................................................................................. 37 COVID-19 PANDEMIC ECONOMIC STRATEGIES AND POLICIES ......................................................... 38 FISCAL POLICY TO SUPPORT THE AVIATION INDUSTRY .............................................................................. 40 Policies and Strategies in Indonesia ................................................................................................................... 40 Comparison of Policies and Strategies in ASEAN Countries ................................................................ 42 IV. AVIATION INDUSTRY REGULATIONS AND POLICY IMPLEMENTATION ........................................ 47 GOVERNMENT STRATEGY AND POLICY ON COMMUNITY MOBILITY ............................................... 47 GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND REGULATIONS RELATED TO AIR TRANSPORTATION ................. 51 DIPLOMACY AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION OF THE GOVERNMENT OF INDONESIA IN HANDLING COVID-19 .................................................................................................................. 56 STATE PRACTICES REGARDING POLICIES AND REGULATIONS FOR HANDLING COVID-19 BASED ON IATA ................................................................................................................................................................ 61 V. AVIATION INDUSTRY RECOVERY PROJECTIONS TOWARDS NEW NORMAL ............................. 66 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ....................................................................................................................................... 66 ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES ................................................................................................................................................. 73 PREDICTION RESULTS ..................................................................................................................................................... 74 VI. RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS .............................................................................................. 83 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................................................ 84 INACA White Paper 3 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 : List of Questions for FGD Interviewees ............................................................................. 11–13 Table 2 : Economic Contractions in 2020 in Indonesian Region ......................................... 30 Table 3 : Manufacturing Industry that Receives Government Incentives in 2020 .... 35 Table 4 : Implementation of Micro Enforcement of Restrictions on Community Activities (PPKM) by the Government of Indonesia ................................................. 49 Table 5 : Regulations of the Minister of Transportation During the COVID-19 Pandemic ........................................................................................................................................... 51–52 Table 6 : Circular Letter of the Minister of Transportation During the COVID-19 Pandemic ........................................................................................................................................... 52-53 Table 7 : Rules for Domestic Travelers in the Circular Letter of COVID-19 Task Force Number 1 of 2021 ........................................................................................................... 53 Table 8 : Comparison of Circular Letter of COVID-19 Task Force Number 6 of 2021 with Circular Letter of COVID-19 Task Force Number 8 of 2021 ........ 55 Table 9 : Airport Policy in Japan During the COVID-19 Pandemic ................................... 63 Table 10 : Domestic and International IV – 2SLS Estimation Results ..................................... 75 Table 11 : Effect of Vaccine Rollouts, Number of Additional Cases and Google Mobility Index in Indonesia in 2021 .................................................................................... 77 Table 12 : Domestic Passenger Rebound Projected in Million Passengers ...................... 78 Table 13 : Demand Driven of Air Passengers Due to Vaccines in Each Province ..... 79 Table 14 : Effect of Vaccine Rollouts, Number of Additional Cases and Google Mobility Index in the United States in 2021 ................................................................... 80 Table 15 : Effect of Vaccine Rollouts, Number of Additional Cases and Google Mobility Index in Singapore in 2021 ................................................................................... 81 Table 16: Effect of Vaccine Rollouts, Number of Additional Cases and Google Mobility Index in Malaysia in 2021 ...................................................................................... 81 Table 17 : Projected International Passenger Rebound in Million Passengers .............. 82 INACA White Paper 4 LIST OF PICTURES Picture 1 : Numbers of COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia .................................................................... 8 Picture 2 : Numbers of Tests, Cases, and Deaths due to COVID-19 in Indonesia ......... 8 Picture 3 : Percentage and Cumulative Rate of COVID-19 Healing in Indonesia ...... 9 Picture 4 : Numbers of Air Passengers Worldwide ............................................................................. 9 Picture 5 : Numbers of Total Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) Worldwide ............... 10 Picture 6 : Objectives of INACA White Paper ....................................................................................... 10 Picture 7 : Process for Preparation of INACA White Paper .......................................................... 11 Picture 8 : Various Policies and Regulations issued by the Government in the Aviation Industry .............................................................................................................................