ZAMBIA Framework contract Lot No. 4: Sector and project evaluations Contract Letter No. 2005/107430 EVALUATION OF THE COMMISSION'S SUPPORT TO ZAMBIA - COUNTRY LEVEL EVALUATION FINAL REPORT SOFRECO - ECORYS Catherine BOUVEYRON Erik KLAASSENS Ernesto MARZANO Bert LOF Francis CHIGUNTA June 2006 92-98, boulevard Victor Hugo - 92115 Clichy Cedex - France Tel: +33 1 41 27 95 95 - Fax: +33 1 47 37 96 20 E-mail: [email protected] Evaluation of the Commission's Support to Zambia New Draft Final Report Country Level Evaluation Waiver This report contains the views of the Evaluation Team that do not necessarily correspond to those of the EC or GRZ Evaluation of the Commission's Support to Zambia New Draft Final Report Country Level Evaluation TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS.................................................................................................1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................6 1 EVALUATION FRAMEWORK............................................................................11 1.1 Background ..........................................................................................................11 1.2 Objective and Scope of the Evaluation..............................................................11 1.3 Design of the Evaluation (overall Methodology)...............................................12 1.3.1 Evaluation Questions, Judgment Criteria and Indicators............................13 1.3.2 Information and Data Collection .................................................................14 1.3.3 Field mission tools......................................................................................14 1.4 Structure of the Report........................................................................................15 2 DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION CONTEXT ...................................................15 2.1 International Development Cooperation Context 2000-2005 ...........................15 2.2 EC Development Objectives ...............................................................................16 2.2.1 European Union Development Policy.........................................................16 2.3 Overall Political, Economic and Social Situation in Zambia............................20 2.3.1 Political Background and the Role of Zambia in the Region ......................20 2.3.2 Poverty in Zambia.......................................................................................20 2.3.3 GRZ Policy Agenda for 2001-2005.............................................................21 2.3.4 Macroeconomic Trends ..............................................................................22 2.3.5 Social Issues ..............................................................................................25 2.3.6 Medium-Term Objectives and Perspectives...............................................29 2.4 EC Intervention Logic in Zambia ........................................................................32 2.4.1 The Country Strategy .................................................................................32 2.4.2 Objectives and Priorities of EC Assistance to Zambia (Focal Sectors) ......34 2.4.3 Non Focal Sectors......................................................................................37 2.4.4 Regional Level............................................................................................39 3 FINDINGS ...........................................................................................................40 3.1 Selection of the Evaluation Questions...............................................................40 3.2 First Set –Relevance of the Programme Strategy.............................................40 3.2.1 Zambian Country Needs and Policies ........................................................41 3.2.2 Sectoral Coverage and Geographical Distribution .....................................42 3.2.3 Economic Constraints.................................................................................43 3.2.4 Implementation Channels...........................................................................44 Evaluation of the Commission's Support to Zambia Final Report Country Level Evaluation 3.3 Second Set: a Comprehensive Question on the 3C (Complementarity, Coordination and Coherence).............................................................................45 3.3.1 Complementarity, Coordination and Coherence with EU MS and other Donors........................................................................................................45 3.3.2 Complementarity, Coordination and Coherence with other EU Policies .......................................................................................................50 3.3.3 Complementarity, Coordination and Coherence with Regional Strategy ......................................................................................................51 3.4 Third Set – a Comprehensive Question on the Efficiency of the Programme Strategy............................................................................................52 3.5 Fourth Set –Specific Questions on the Intervention Sectors ..........................56 3.5.1 Aid Effectiveness, Impact and Sustainability – Macro-economic Support.......................................................................................................56 3.5.2 Aid Effectiveness, Impact and Sustainability– Institutional Reform and Capacity Building........................................................................................61 3.5.3 Aid Effectiveness, Impact and Sustainability – Private Sector Development ..............................................................................................63 3.5.4 Aid Effectiveness, Impact and Sustainability, Transport.............................66 3.5.5 Aid Effectiveness, Impact and Sustainability– Non-Focal Sectors .............72 3.6 Fifth set: A Comprehensive Question on Cross-Cutting Issues: Governance, Gender, Environment, HIV-AIDS, Policy Dialogue .....................82 3.6.1 Good Governance ......................................................................................83 3.6.2 Gender........................................................................................................86 3.6.3 Environment ...............................................................................................87 3.6.4 Policy Dialogue...........................................................................................89 3.6.5 HIV/AIDS ....................................................................................................89 4 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS...................................................90 4.1 At Analytical Level ...............................................................................................90 4.1.1 On Programme Strategy.............................................................................90 4.1.2 On Complementarity, Coordination and Coherence...................................92 4.1.3 On Efficiency ..............................................................................................92 4.1.4 Specific on Intervention Sectors.................................................................93 4.1.5 On Cross-Cutting Issues ..........................................................................105 4.2 At Strategic Level...............................................................................................106 4.3 Wrapping up: Overall Conclusions and Recommendations..........................108 Evaluation of the Commission's Support to Zambia New Draft Final Report Country Level Evaluation LIST OF ACRONYMS ABB Activity Based Budget ACC Anti-Corruption Association ACP African, Caribbean, Pacific Group of States ADB African Development Bank AG Auditor General AGOA African Growth and Opportunity Act AIDS Acquired ImmunoDeficiency Syndrome APRM African Peer Review Mechanism ARVs Antiretroviral Drugs AU African Union AWP Annual Work Plan BESSIP Basic Education Sub-Sector Investment Programme BS Budget Support CBoH Central Board of Health CFU Conservative Farming Unit COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CPs Cooperating Partners CSO Central Statistical Office CSP Country Strategy Paper DAC Development Assistance Committee (OECD) DANIDA Danish International Development Authority DBS Direct Budget Support DfID Department for International Development DRC Democratic Republic of Congo EAC East African Community EC European Commission ECHO European Commission Humanitarian Aid Office ECZ Electoral Commission of Zambia EDF European Development Fund EDP Export Development Programme EIB European Investment Bank EIDHR European Initiative for Democracy and Human Rights EPA Economic Partnership Agreement EPZ Export Processing Zone ESA Eastern and Southern Africa ESP Education Strategic Plan ETC External Technical Cooperation EU European Union FA Financing Agreement FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation FDI Foreign Direct Investment FINNIDA Finnish International Development Authority 1 Evaluation of the Commission's Support to Zambia New Draft Final Report Country Level Evaluation FMS Financial Management System FP Financial Proposal FTA Free Trade Area GBS Global Budget Support GDP Gross Domestic Product GFATM Global Fund to fight HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria GPRS Government Poverty Reduction Strategy GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia HIP Harmonisation