2019 UPDATE GLOBAL STATES AND REGIONS ANNUAL DISCLOSURE How states and regions are preparing for the climate decade 2019 UPDATE GLOBAL STATES AND REGIONS ANNUAL DISCLOSURE FOREWORD In this pivotal year, ahead of national governments submitting governments that are fully equipped to to help states and regions improve their increased pledges of ambition to the United Nations, we need all measure and manage their greenhouse measurement and reporting practices gas emissions. Over five years of the are essential. stakeholders from across states and regions, business, cities and Global States and Regions Annual This is more important than ever, as there civil society to come together and show how they are able to Disclosure, while we have seen an is very little time to lose. As 2020 draws support an increase in ambition to reduce global emissions. increase in the number of governments nearer, we are reminded of the fact that disclosing data on their climate action, emissions need to be halved within the the number of governments reporting next decade. In the latest projection data of a sufficient quality required for From this year’s Global States and analysis in this report, by 2030 states and the projection analysis has stayed roughly Regions Annual Disclosure, states and regions will not be on track to achieving the same. More governments reporting regions have demonstrated that they are the 1.5°C goal unless they increase their playing an important role. As things stand, climate ambition. leading states and regions have already To track progress, the capacity and For all governments, the 2020s need to met their emissions reduction targets for expertise of states and regions to measure be the decade of climate action, where 2020 and are in line with what is required their emissions and build on current we see both an increase in the number to meet the 1.5°C trajectory, building an targets must be improved. of targets being set by governments and excellent foundation for the next decade. an increase in ambition of those targets. If they increase the ambition of their data on their emissions breakdown For those that have achieved their 2020 long-term targets, they can support and emissions reduction targets would targets, let us take a moment to celebrate, their national counterparts to close the provide a more accurate picture of future share what’s worked and move on to emissions gap. emissions trends. repeat the process over the next decade. As the High-Level Champion for COP25 To track progress, the capacity and Gonzalo Muñoz, responsible for engaging business, expertise of states and regions to High-Level COP Champion subnational governments and civil society, measure their emissions and build on I find this is extremely encouraging and current targets must be improved. look forward to seeing states and regions Greater coordination with national showcase their action at COP. governments to share emissions data, as However, it is also clear that the number well as more investment and resources of states and regions disclosing their data to The Climate Group and CDP is a drop in the ocean compared to the number of states and regions in the world. In order for us to accurately measure the action THE 2020s NEED TO being taken at the state and regional level, we need more governments to disclose. BE THE DECADE OF There also needs to be an increase in the number of state and regional CLIMATE ACTION 2 3 2019 UPDATE GLOBAL STATES AND REGIONS ANNUAL DISCLOSURE KEY STATES AND REGIONS IN THE UNDER2 COALITION ARE LEADING THE WAY FINDINGS 9 DISCLOSING GOVERNMENTS GOVERNMENTS FROM THE OF ALL TARGETS WERE 124 state and regional governments from 35 countries ARE MEMBERS OF THE UNDER2 COALITION HAVE SET DISCLOSED BY MEMBERS disclosed their climate action – an increase of 182% UNDER2 COALITION NET-ZERO EMISSIONS TARGETS OF THE UNDER2 COALITION since 2015. They represent 669 million people and 20% of the global economy. STATES AND REGIONS ARE TAKING AMBITIOUS CLIMATE ACTION STATES AND REGIONS ARE LEADERS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY AN AVERAGE ON AVERAGE 651 3821 45 ACTIONS TO ADAPT ACTIONS TO MITIGATE EMISSIONS REDUCTION BY STATES AND REGIONS HAVE STATES AND REGIONS HAVE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATED TO CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE STATES AND REGIONS AS GLOBAL 100% RENEWABLE 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY IN STATES AND REGIONS IS CHANGE ACROSS 11 SECTORS EMISSIONS CONTINUE TO RISE1 ELECTRICITY OR ELECTRICITY TARGETS RENEWABLE COMPARED TO GLOBAL AVERAGE OF 25% 124 ARE WE ON TRACK? STATES AND REGIONS 669 STATE AND REGIONAL STATES AND REGIONS 11 STATES AND REGIONS HAVE SET MILLION PEOPLE TARGETS ARE IN LINE NEED TO SET MORE A NET-ZERO EMISSIONS TARGET WITH THE 1.5°C GOAL AMBITIOUS 2030 TARGETS BUT MORE MUST FOLLOW SEE PAGE 22-23 for a map of disclosing states 20% OF GLOBAL ECONOMY and regions 1 Compared to their base year 4 5 PROJECTIONS PROGRESS ACTION GLOBAL STATES AND REGIONS ANNUAL DISCLOSURE PROJECTED IMPACT FIGURE 1: Projected greenhouse gas emissions to 2050 OF DISCLOSED 3.0 NATIONAL TARGETS 2.5 GOVERNMENTS STATES & In the short-term, disclosing state and regional REGIONS 2.0 governments are more ambitious than their ) ) e 2 national counterparts, but more must be done to GtCO2e achieve the required emission reductions to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. 1.5 GHG EMISSIONS ( GHG EMISSIONS (GTCO 1.0 1.5°C Projecting the disclosed region-wide and Longer-Term Pathway curves are greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions adjusted to indicate the emissions 0.5 reduction targets of states and trajectories if these national targets were regions, the red curve in Figure 1 implemented by the states and regions displays the expected trend in their in the analysis. The green curve indicates emissions from 2017 to 2050. This is the projected emissions trajectory that 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 compared to a combined Nationally states and regions would need to follow Determined Contribution (NDC) to keep global warming to 1.5°C. YEAR Our findings show that states and Historical NDCs Longer-Term States 1.5°C Low Energy Emissions Pathway3 Pathway3 & Regions Demand Pathway4 Our findings show that states and regions regions have ambitious targets leading have ambitious targets leading up to 2020 up to 2020, but they need to raise the level of ambition of their 2030 targets. Figure 1 displays a slowing rate of emissions trajectory up to 2030 of the reduction after 2020 and predicts that seven countries in which those states the largest gap in emissions between and regions are located: Australia, the trajectories of States and Regions In the long-term, the targets set by have set a net-zero emissions target. Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and 1.5°C will occur in 2030. The states and regions are not ambitious For emissions to reach net-zero by Mexico, Norway, and the USA. emissions gap between the NDCs and enough to reach net-zero emissions 2050, more governments must follow 1.5°C is also at its largest in 2030. The Longer-Term Pathway curve by 2050, in alignment with the 1.5°C suit and raise their ambition. displays projected emissions of pledges With global emissions in 2030 required goal. Of the states and regions included and targets between 2030 and 2050 to be approximately 55% lower than in this analysis, only 11 governments from the seven countries. For national in 20172, neither states and regions governments without a long-term target, nor national governments are on track their NDC targets have been carried to limit global warming to 1.5°C. 2 UNEP (2018). Olhoff, A. and Christensen, J.M., 2018. Emissions Gap Report 2018. Available at: forward to 2050. Both the NDCs Pathway www.wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y 3 Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute (2019) Climate Action Tracker. Available at: www.climateactiontracker.org/countries 4 Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium & International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (2018) Huppmann, D. et al. IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer and Data hosted by IIASA. Available at: data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer 6 7 PROJECTIONS PROGRESS ACTION GLOBAL STATES AND REGIONS ANNUAL DISCLOSURE The Scottish Government has set three targets ahead of their net-zero 2045 ACHIEVING NET-ZERO target and is already making excellent progress towards them by reducing EMISSIONS current emissions by 47% since 1990. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines The IPCC Special Report: Global Another key component of achieving net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, also known as carbon Warming of 1.5°C12 states that global CO2 net-zero emissions is to institutionalize targets into law. In June 2019, New York neutrality, as the balance between anthropogenic CO2 emissions emissions must reach net-zero around 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5°C. State passed new climate legislation and anthropogenic CO2 removals over a specified period. updating their previous 2050 target Recognizing the different contexts to net-zero. The state has committed of states and regions around the to reduce GHG emissions by 85% and world, and equity principles such offset the remaining 15% through CO2 as historical contributions to global FIGURE 2: States and regions with region-wide net-zero emissions targets and their progress removal projects such as reforestation, emissions and the capability to reduce 0% 50% Carbon neutrality carbon capture and sequestration, future emissions, the target year and the restoration and sustainable Emissions Progress for achieving carbon neutrality may reduction target towards target5 % management of natural and urban forests. differ across different jurisdictions.