SON PREFERENCE AND FERTILITY IN CHINA, SOUTH KOREA, AND THE UNITED STATES A Dissertation by HO SIK MIN Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY May 2007 Major Subject: Sociology © 2007 HO SIK MIN ALL RIGHTS RESERVED SON PREFERENCE AND FERTILITY IN CHINA, SOUTH KOREA, AND THE UNITED STATES A Dissertation by HO SIK MIN Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Approved by: Chair of Committee, Dudley L. Poston Jr. Committee Members, Rogelio Saenz Barbara Finlay Don E. Albrecht Head of Department, Mark Fossett May 2007 Major Subject: Sociology iii ABSTRACT Son Preference and Fertility in China, South Korea, and the United States. (May 2007) Ho Sik Min, B.A., Korea University; M.A., Korea University Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Dudley L. Poston Jr. The goal of this dissertation is to contribute in three ways to the literature on son preference and fertility through a comparative perspective. First, I examine the impact of son preference on fertility in China and South Korea compared with the United States. The impact that a female birth has on the likelihood of a woman having another birth is of the most concern: Women who have one or two daughter(s) as previous child(ren) are expected to be more likely to experience the hazard of having a second or a third birth. Second, my dissertation attempts to examine the effects of women’s status on son preference if women’s education reduces son preference. Third, my dissertation examines son preference and fertility in the U.S. Even though the U.S. has never shown son preference regarding sex ratios at birth, recent research has shown this association to exist among poor Hispanics. My dissertation used data from a national sample, 2002 National Survey of Family Growth. iv The results showed that women in China and South Korea who had a daughter instead of a son as their first child had a higher hazard of having a second birth as expected. Moreover, the results showed that the hazard ratio of having a third birth for Chinese and South Korean women was almost four and five times more, respectively. As expected, the hazard ratios for the U.S. were not significant and thus did not support the hypothesis. And the more educated women who had a daughter(s) instead of a son(s) as their previous child(ren) were less likely to have a second birth, but not in the third birth. This means women’s education apparently does not reduce son preference in the case of the third birth. Thus, women’s education apparently has limited or no influence on the childbearing decision where son preference is strong. Third, Hispanic women with low socioeconomic status did not have a significant hazard ratio of having a higher order birth. Accordingly, the dissertation does not find any statistical evidence of American son preference at the national level. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am deeply grateful to the dissertation committee, Dr. Dudley L. Poston, Dr. Rogelio Saenz, Dr. Barbara Finlay, and Dr. Don Albrecht. Their important comments and suggestions improved this dissertation atduring its development. I especially owe a great debt of gratitude to my mentor, Dr. Dudley L. Poston. Without his guidance and encouragement, this study would not have been accomplished. I would like to thank Dr. Poston for leading me to the area of demography, and for his enormous patience and valuable comments, chapter by chapter, on this manuscript. In addition, I want to thank my colleagues, Dr. Mary Ann Davis and D’Lane Compton, for spending their precious time on this manuscript. Their comments are greatly appreciated. Last but not least, I want to thank my dear wife, Hyeong Kyeong Kook and lovely son, Eugene, for tolerating my absence and late hours at work. My wife's emotional and moral support and assistance especially are deeply appreciated. This dissertation is as much theirs as it is mine. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS............................................................................................ v TABLE OF CONTENTS............................................................................................ vi LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................viii LIST OF FIGURES...................................................................................................... x CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 1 II LITERATURE REVIEW................................................................................ 12 Fertility Decline and Sex Ratio at Birth...................................................... 13 Fertility Decline...................................................................................... 13 Sex Ratio at Birth ................................................................................... 18 Son Preference, Confucianism, and Its Gender Inequality .................... 23 Empirical Studies ........................................................................................ 28 China and South Korea .......................................................................... 28 The United States ................................................................................... 30 III METHODOLOGY......................................................................................... 33 Data ............................................................................................................. 33 China Data.............................................................................................. 33 South Korea Data ................................................................................... 35 The U. S. Data........................................................................................ 35 Measurements.............................................................................................. 36 Hypotheses .................................................................................................. 39 Hazard Methods .......................................................................................... 41 The Construction for Time-Variant Dependent Variable....................... 42 Kaplan-Meier (K-M) Suvivor Graph ..................................................... 43 Cox’s Partial-Likelihood Method........................................................... 50 Interaction Models....................................................................................... 52 IV RESULTS FROM THE FIRST GROUP OF ANALYSES: THE TRANSITION FROM THE FIRST BIRTH TO THE SECOND BIRTH.....56 Descriptive Statistics....................................................................................... 56 The Results of the Hazard Analyses........................................................... 59 China ...................................................................................................... 59 South Korea............................................................................................ 62 vii CHAPTER Page The United States ................................................................................... 64 Semi-Standardized Hazard Ratios.......................................................... 66 The Results of the Interaction Models ....................................................... 66 China and South Korea .......................................................................... 67 The United States ................................................................................... 70 V RESULTS FROM THE SECOND GROUP OF ANALYSES: THE TRANSITION FROM THE SECOND BIRTH TO THE THIRD BIRTH .... 75 Descriptive Statistics................................................................................... 76 The Results of the Hazard Analyses ........................................................... 80 China ...................................................................................................... 80 South Korea............................................................................................ 82 The United States ................................................................................... 83 Semi-Standardized Hazard Ratios.......................................................... 85 The Results of the Interaction Models ........................................................ 86 China and South Korea .......................................................................... 86 The United States ................................................................................... 90 VI CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS..................................................... 94 The Summary of the Findings..................................................................... 95 Conclusions and Implications ................................................................... 101 REFERENCES......................................................................................................... 105 VITA ........................................................................................................................ 114 viii LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1. Descriptive statistics for the first group, women who had one live birth....