Nuclear Development 2017 Impacts of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident on Nuclear Development Policies NEA Nuclear Development Impacts of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident on Nuclear Development Policies © OECD 2017 NEA No. 7212 NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 35 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1 February 1958. Current NEA membership consists of 31 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency also take part in the work of the Agency. The mission of the NEA is: – to assist its member countries in maintaining and further developing, through international co-operation, the scientific, technological and legal bases required for a safe, environmentally friendly and economical use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes; – to provide authoritative assessments and to forge common understandings on key issues, as input to government decisions on nuclear energy policy and to broader OECD policy analyses in areas such as energy and sustainable development. Specific areas of competence of the NEA include the safety and regulation of nuclear activities, radioactive waste management, radiological protection, nuclear science, economic and technical analyses of the nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear law and liability, and public information. The NEA Data Bank provides nuclear data and computer program services for participating countries. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found online at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. © OECD 2017 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of the OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected]. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre français d'exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) [email protected]. Cover photos: Tsunami at Fukushima Daini (TEPCO); Industrial wind installation (Carlos Castilla, Shutterstock); Placement of first AP1000 steam generator at Virgil C. Summer unit 2, United States (SCE&G). FOREWORD Foreword In October 2012, the NEA Committee for Technical and Economic Studies on Nuclear Energy Development and the Fuel Cycle (NDC) endorsed a proposal to include the “Impacts of Fukushima on Nuclear Development Policies” project in the 2013-2014 Programme of Work for the NEA Division of Nuclear Development (DEV) in an effort to review changes in nuclear energy policies following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP). Such an assessment would provide insight not only into the current trajectory of nuclear power development but also into the likelihood of meeting rising energy demand to 2025 and beyond, while achieving greenhouse gas reduction goals and the important policy goal of decarbonising electricity generation. Keeping abreast of policy changes is important for NEA member countries, in particular those with nuclear power programmes, reactor vendors and associated businesses. Since most must also make decisions on commitments to meet greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, on the need to replace ageing electricity generating facilities and on energy security of supply concerns, it is important for them to be up-to- date on developments in nuclear power in other countries so as to inform their own decision making. It became clear as time progressed after the March 2011 accident that a few key countries would not be able to finalise policy responses to the accident for some time, and thus the NDC agreed to extend the study to cover approximately a six-year period following the accident. Today, policies in the majority of countries with nuclear power remain unchanged. In some countries, the changes in nuclear energy policies are evident, whereas in others they are much less so. Clearly, policy changes driven by the Fukushima Daiichi accident have slowed the development of nuclear energy, but countries’ policy re-evaluations of nuclear power linked to the accident generally appear to have subsided. Other factors, in particular abundant, low-cost natural gas (mainly in the United States), ambitious targets for developing variable renewable energy generation, the risk averse investment climate persisting since the global financial crisis in 2008, the low demand for and price of electricity in many developed countries and the challenges of investing in thermal electricity generating facilities of any kind in liberalised markets (particularly in Europe and in some areas of the United States), appear to be the main factors affecting investment decisions for nuclear power projects in many parts of the world today. This uncertainty and inherent risk context offers a more likely explanation to why projections for nuclear development have tended to decrease, for instance, the 2035 projections of the NEA/International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Uranium: Resources, Production and Demand (the “Red Book”) or the two-degree scenario (2DS) projections of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Technology Perspectives. IMPACTS OF THE FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI ACCIDENT ON NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT POLICIES, NEA No. 7212, © OECD 2017 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgements This report was produced under the auspices of the NEA Committee for Technical and Economic Studies on Nuclear Energy Development and the Fuel Cycle (NDC). It was drafted by Mr Robert Vance and Mr David Henderson, former and current staff of the NEA Division of Nuclear Development, from a review of news articles, press releases and from member country contributions to two series of publications: Uranium: Resources, Production and Demand and Nuclear Energy Data, the former of which also includes data contributed by IAEA member states. Information on installed capacity was taken primarily from the IAEA Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). The contribution of Mr Laurie Moore, who provided editorial assistance throughout the preparation of the report, is also gratefully acknowledged. 4 IMPACTS OF THE FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI ACCIDENT ON NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT POLICIES, NEA No. 7212, © OECD 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of contents List of abbreviations and acronyms ............................................................................................7 Executive summary ........................................................................................................................9 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................17 Regional policy responses ...........................................................................................................19 East Asia ......................................................................................................................................19 Southeast Asia ............................................................................................................................27 Middle East, Central and South Asia .......................................................................................30 European Union .........................................................................................................................38