Employment Land and Premises Study Update Sefton Council S131(e)/Final Report/August 2015/ BE Group Employment Land and Premises Study Update Sefton Council CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 12 2.0 POLICY CONTEXT ......................................................................................... 21 3.0 ECONOMIC CONTEXT .................................................................................. 56 4.0 PROPERTY MARKET ASSESSMENT........................................................... 82 5.0 STAKEHOLDERS ......................................................................................... 115 6.0 EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY ................................................................... 131 7.0 LAND NEEDS OF NON-B CLASS USES .................................................... 166 8.0 OBJECTIVELY ASSESSED NEEDS ........................................................... 173 9.0 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................ 192 10.0 RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................. 218 Appendix 1 – List of Consultees Appendix 2 – Sefton Vacant Property Schedules Appendix 3 – Key Business Consultations Appendix 4 – Employment Land Site Proformas Appendix 5 – Site Scoring System Appendix 6 – Detailed Site Scoring Appendix 7 – Employment Areas - Proformas and Plans Appendix 8 – OAN Detailed Forecast Calculations Appendix 9 – Developer Marketing Standards S131(e)/Final Report/August 2015/ BE Group Employment Land and Premises Study Update Sefton Council EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction i) This report assesses the supply, need and demand for employment land and premises (use class B) in Sefton. It has been carried out for Sefton Council to provide robust evidence to underpin and inform its emerging Local Plan for the period to 2030, and onwards to 2035. The report updates the relevant elements of the previous employment land evidence base document, the Employment Land and Premises Study Refresh (2012) which was also completed by BE Group. ii) The study has five objectives, as outlined in Section 1.0 of the main report: To reflect up to date economic forecasts, and thus the consequences of recovery from economic recession. The forecasts are to reflect an extended timescale to 2035 To build upon previous research work, largely carried out by BE Group, including the 2014/15 Dunnings Bridge Road Economic Investment Strategy, 2014/15 Port of Liverpool Employment Potential Study, the 2012 Sefton Employment Land and Premises Study Refresh and the 2010 Joint Employment Land Study for Sefton, Knowsley, Halton and West Lancashire. It will update this work and account for changes in national policy including the publication of Planning Practice Guidance To consider the changing local and sub-regional/regional markets; projected growth in demand for logistics space in the sub-region and new Local Plan proposals for three new business parks on Green Belt sites To consider the projected growth in demand for logistics space in Sefton, and across the sub-region resulting, at least in part, from growth at the Port of Liverpool To review the likely role and function of the three proposed business parks in Green Belt proposed in the emerging local plan, identifying any constraints to their provision, along with the ongoing viability of existing employment areas. Methodology iii) A number of research methods have been used including site visits and interviews with public sector agencies involved in the Borough (and in neighbouring local authority areas); 13 major businesses; key developers, landowners and their agents. Desktop analysis of existing strategies, reports and documents has also been used S131(e)/Final Report/August 2015/ BE Group 3 Employment Land and Premises Study Update Sefton Council to inform the overall findings. Finally the land supply has been assessed against forecast data to understand the future need for any additional employment land. This is then developed into a series of economic development recommendations that cover not just land, but also premises. The methodology follows Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) on the production of employment land reviews. Findings iv) As noted in Section 3.0 of the main report, Sefton is an economically active area with a reasonably skilled workforce. Unemployment is low in the context of the Liverpool City Region, and in regional and national contexts. However, Sefton also has a strong dependence on public sector employment – 41.1 percent of the Borough’s workforce is employed in public administration, education and health. This is high in the Liverpool City Region, regional and national contexts. In comparison, local manufacturing appears to have a modest economic role, accounting for 4.8 percent of local employment compared to 7 percent of jobs across Liverpool City Region and 10.1 percent across the North West v) In terms of service sectors, professional, scientific and technical and information and communication have the strongest roles and account for a high proportion (17.8 percent) of local businesses. Overall, there were some 8,375 businesses operating in the Borough in 2014. Most of those businesses employ less than ten employees (81.1 percent). vi) In terms of commuting, Sefton is a net exporter of labour, with the second largest level of net outflow in the Liverpool City Region (-19,181), after that in Wirral. In 2011 at least, 53 percent of the Borough’s working residents lived and worked in the area. This was a fairly average level of self-containment in the Liverpool City Region. vii) Market demand in Sefton is assessed in Section 4.0 of the main report and particularly in relation to discussions held with ten property market stakeholders in paragraphs 4.83-4.99 of that section. viii) Industrial requirements are for production and warehouse space of up to 5,000- 10,000 sqm, while the local micro-small business market appears to require industrial units of up to 500 sqm. In terms of logistics and larger B2 manufacturing occupiers, agents working across the North West are receiving requirements for units of up to 50,000 sqm, of relevance to Sefton. These are from national businesses who may be S131(e)/Final Report/August 2015/ BE Group 4 Employment Land and Premises Study Update Sefton Council considering a range of locations. Against this demand there is an undersupply of modern, moderate or good quality premises of up to 1,000 sqm and particularly units of 500-800 sqm. At the larger scale, based on the current marketed supply, meeting demand for any single unit of more than 6,000 sqm is challenging, particularly if the demand is for modern space. ix) In terms of offices, agents remain somewhat less confident about the demand picture. In South Sefton, the biggest barrier for lettings is the fact that companies looking for space in the inner Liverpool Conurbation still do not see Bootle Office Quarter as part of their area of search. Local demand is for suites of up to 200 sqm and town centre space, particularly in Southport Town Centre, is most popular. x) Consultations with a sample of the larger businesses in the Borough are recorded in detail in Appendix 3 and summarised in Section 5.0. Five of the 13 businesses have growth aspirations. For the most part these businesses do not envisage there will be any problems in finding the land or premises they need locally. The main exception is within the Port Estate, where space is increasingly constrained given broader growth in Port operations. In the longer term this may have implications for the operations of some Port tenants. xi) This reflects the findings of the Port of Liverpool Employment Potential Study (2015) – Business Survey Report, which indicated very high levels of satisfaction in the Borough and its current premises offer. Businesses are also relatively confident about short term prospects for growth. In terms of turnover at least, the majority predict improvements of around 10 percent over the next few years. xii) As noted in Section 5.0 (paragraphs 5.29-5.58) of the main report, all of the local authorities around Sefton feel they are able to meet their employment land needs on land within their own local authority area boundaries. Employment Land Supply xiii) Sefton’s current and emerging land supply is discussed in Section 6.0 of the main report. At 31st March 2015 there was a local supply of 82.10 ha of available employment land, made up of 11 sites (which has been adjusted to 88.59 ha to allow for the position at the start of the Plan period, in 2012). This comprises land proposed under Policy MN2: Housing, Employment, and Mixed Use Allocations of the emerging ‘A Local Plan for Sefton: Submission Draft.’ S131(e)/Final Report/August 2015/ BE Group 5 Employment Land and Premises Study Update Sefton Council xiv) All of the employment sites proposed are developable and deliverable, even if some of the smaller sites in South Sefton appear to be long term development prospects. None are being held for the use of specific businesses, and in principle, all should be able to provide development land within the Local Plan period. For the most part Local Plan sites have already been netted down to exclude any land proposed for non B-Class development. However, an element of enabling development is also likely to be