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The Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia A Net Assessment Peter Chalk, Angel Rabasa, William Rosenau, Leanne Piggott Prepared for The Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN 978-0-8330-4658-1 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This monograph, prepared by the RAND Corporation and the Centre for International Security Studies in Australia, develops a net assess- ment against which to gauge the scope and parameters of the terrorist threat to Southeast Asia and, by extension, U.S. security interests in the region. Its main purpose is to enhance understanding of the dangers posed by politically motivated violence in Southeast Asia and to rec- ommend improvements to U.S. counterterrorism (CT) policy, which, if implemented, would reduce the terrorist threat to the stability of this important region. Building on prior RAND research undertaken to analyze the underlying motives, drivers, and capabilities of the principal extrem- ist groups that have resorted to terrorist violence in the Philippines, southern Thailand, and across the Indonesian archipelago, this study examined the historical roots of militancy in these regions to provide context for assessing the degree to which local agendas are being either subsumed within a broader ideological framework or shaped by other extremist movements. To illuminate some of these connections, this monograph analyzes the organizational structure, cohesion, and ideol- ogy of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the most dangerous of the various dis- parate jihadist groups operating in this part of the world, and assesses its capacity to exploit and aggravate established Islamist conflicts in Southeast Asia. It also includes a dedicated appendix that breaks new ground in exploring the potential for Cambodia to emerge as an attack or logistical hub for terrorists over the next five years. iii iv The Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia: A Net Assessment By definition, a comprehensive terrorism assessment must include more than just a threat evaluation. Any meaningful analysis needs to take into account the thoroughness and relevance of government countermeasures and capabilities. Accordingly, this monograph exam- ines the effectiveness of the key national security strategies that have been enacted by the three regional states that are presently most affected by terrorism—Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia—as well as the impact of U.S. CT and law enforcement assistance that has been pro- vided to each of these countries. The subsequent gap analysis should help to provide a comprehen- sive picture of the overall terrorist environment in Southeast Asia and the specific nature of the militant support networks currently operating in this part of the world. It is hoped that these findings will assist the United States and regional partner-nation governments to better shape and refine the parameters of their respective assistance programs and mitigation efforts. This research was sponsored by the Australian Federal Police and the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the Inter- national Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and develop- ment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. Comments are welcome and may be directed to the principal investigator, Peter Chalk, at [email protected]. For more information on RAND’s International Security and Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at 703- 413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at the RAND Corporation, 1200 S. Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................. xix Abbreviations .................................................................... xxi CHaptER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 CHaptER TWO Malay Muslim Extremism in Southern Thailand ........................... 5 Militant Context ................................................................... 5 Background to the Southern Thai Conflict ................................... 5 The Malay Muslim Militant Struggle ......................................... 7 1960–1998 ........................................................................ 7 1998–2004 .......................................................................10 2004–Present ....................................................................12 Militant Groupings ...............................................................17 Structure and Size...............................................................17 Goals and Motivational Drivers ...............................................19 Patterns of Recruitment and Radicalization ................................ 23 Traction Among the Local Population .......................................25 External Dimensions .......................................................... 26 Assessment .........................................................................29 v vi The Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia: A Net Assessment CHaptER THREE Muslim and Communist Extremism in the Philippines .................33 Militant Context ..................................................................33 Militant Groupings ...............................................................37 Moro Islamic Liberation Front ................................................37 Misuari Breakaway Group .................................................... 46 Abu Sayyaf Group ..............................................................49 Communist Party of the Philippines–New People’s Army ................57