Acknowledgements he Mini-Grids Partnership (MGP) report is Vandana Gomber (BNEF), Richard Stubbe (BNEF), a culmination of combined effort and true Veronika Henze (BNEF), Lara Hayim (BNEF), Ulim- collaboration between different organiza- meh Ezekiel (BNEF), Ethan Zindler (BNEF), and Mi- Ttions. This report was commissioned by Sustainable chael Wilshire (BNEF). Jem Porcaro and Olivia Col- Energy for All (SEforALL), on behalf of the MGP, a drey (SEforALL) provided important contributions to consortium of over 300 stakeholders with represen- the report. We would also like to thank SEforALL staff tation from funders/financiers, government, private for their support: Glenn Pearce-Oroz, Juan Cerda, sector/industry and other enablers. Stephen Kent, Vilmar Luiz, and Jenny Nasser. Partnership and Funding Consultation and Review We acknowledge with gratitude the financial sup- The report team is extremely grateful to the fol- port provided by the UK Department for Inter- lowing peer reviewers for their time, expertise, and national Development (DFID), the Deutsche Ge- thoughtful comments: Kat Harrison (60 Decibels), sellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Zoheir Rabia (ABB), Aissatou Diagne (Acumen), Energising Development (EnDev), Shell Foundation Benjamin Hugues (Camco Clean Energy), Will Pear- and Sustainable Energy for All (SEforAll). We also son (Camco Clean Energy), Ian Muir (Catalyst Off- acknowledge this work is done in collaboration with Grid Advisors), Adwait Joshi (Clean Energy Access the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Africa Network), Gabriel Davies (CrossBoundary), Andrew Minigrid Developers Association (AMDA). Tipping (Economic Consulting Associates), Anise Sacranie (EEP Africa), Lyndon Frearson (Ekistica), We would also like to thank the members of the Peter Weston (Energy 4 Impact), Catoer Wibowo Report Advisory Group, who provided valuable (GIZ), Arthur Contejean (International Energy Agen- feedback on the report’s design and findings. This cy), Ali Yasir (International Renewable Energy Agen- includes Emmanuel Boujieka Kamga (AfDB), Dan- cy), Harry Guinness (Lion’s Head Global Partners), iel Schroth (AfDB), Aaron Leopold (AMDA), Jes- Emily McAteer (Odyssey Energy Solutions), Law- sica Stephens (AMDA), Jon Lane (Carbon Trust), rence Lin (Power Africa / Tetra Tech), Sam Slaughter Jonathan Daglish (Carbon Trust), Hary Adriantavy (PowerGen Renewable Energy), Ute Collier (Prac- (CLUB-ER), Steven Hunt (DFID), Daniel Busche (GIZ, tical Action), John Tkacik (Renewable Energy and EnDev), Gregor Josef Broemling (GIZ, EnDev), Energy Efficiency Partnership), Martijn Veen (SNV), Emma Miller (Shell Foundation), and Richard Gomes Pedro Moleirinho (SNV), Nico Tyabji (SunFunder), (Shell Foundation). and Sam Duby (TFE Energy). Authorship and Project Management We would like to thank the following partners for their time and thoughtful contributions: ABB, Acu- The SEforALL team was led by Ruchi Soni, who men, Agence Française de Développement (AFD), worked in close collaboration with Takehiro Kawa- Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE), Africa Min- hara at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The team igrid Developers Association (AMDA), BoxPower, members who were integral to the report’s devel- Camco Clean Energy, Carbon Trust, Clean Power opment include: Jaryeong Kim (SEforALL), Amar Indonesia, Climate Investment Fund, Comitato Vasdev (BNEF), Antoine Vagneur-Jones (BNEF), Europeo per la Formazione e l’Agricoltura (CEFA), 2 STATE OF THE GLOBAL MINI-GRIDS MARKET REPORT 2020 Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), One Renewable Energy, Open Capital Advisors, Pow- CrossBoundary Energy, CrossBoundary Mini-Grid er for All, PowerGen, PT Inovasi, Renewvia Energy Innovation Lab, Decentralised Energy Systems Corporation, responsAbility Investments AG, Ricky (DESI Power), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Interna- Buch (independent consultant), Rockefeller Foun- tionale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Devergy, Divyam dation, Senate of the Philippines, Shell Foundation, Nagpal (independent consultant), Energy 4 Im- Smart Power India, SNV Netherlands Development pact, ENGIE, Ensol, Equatorial Power, FACTOR[e], Organisation, SparkMeter, Standard Microgrid, Sun- Ferntech, Fondazione ACRA, GVE Projects Lim- Funder, Swedish International Development Cooper- ited, Husk Power Systems, International Finance ation Agency (SIDA), The Energy and Resources Insti- Corporation (IFC), IKEA Foundation, InFunde De- tute (TERI), Total Carbon Neutrality Ventures, UK Aid, velopment, Institute for Energy Economics and Fi- University College London, Virunga Power, WeLight, nancial Analysis (IEEFA), IT Power, Jumeme, Kaw- Wenergy Global, and Winch Energy. iSafi Ventures, Mantrac Uganda Ltd, MeshPower, Mlinda, Odyssey Energy Solutions, OMC Power, Cover photo credit: Nayo Tropical Technology. Support provided by: This material has been funded in part by UK aid from the UK government; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies. 3 STATE OF THE GLOBAL MINI-GRIDS MARKET REPORT 2020 About the report his State of the Global Mini-grids Market Methodology Report 2020 aims to raise awareness about mini-grids, mobilizing investments in the The authors combined various research methodol- Tmini-grid sector and serving as a benchmark to ogies to conduct the research. They include litera- measure progress in the sector for decision-mak- ture reviews, semi-structured interviews and quan- ers. It provides the latest updates on the global titative modelling analysis. mini-grids market and highlights key trends in the industry that, together, can stand as the definitive The review of existing literature included the au- source of information for stakeholders. The authors thors’ existing research publications, academic of this report were commissioned to conduct the articles, reports published by other research orga- research between October 2019 and April 2020 nizations, news articles and company press releas- and produce the report on behalf of the Mini-Grids es. The authors conducted structured interviews Partnership (MGP). with 68 organizations to collect information and data from mini-grid developers, financiers, donor Goals agencies, research institutes, non-profit organi- zations and technology vendors. Information and This research has three primary goals. The first is data gathered were used to analyze the status of to provide stakeholders in the mini-grid sector with the mini-grid market, policy and regulations, financ- the most up-to date information and analysis of the ing, economics, impacts and case studies (Sections market status and trends in the sector. The second is 4-9 and 11-16). The authors conducted quantitative to propose recommendations for key stakeholders modelling analysis to calculate levelized costs of to address the challenges identified in the research electricity (LCOEs) (Section 8) and to analyze the in developing the mini-grid market. The third is to addressable market size of mini-grids by 2030 un- build an open source mini-grid asset database. der business-as-usual and universal electricity ac- cess scenarios (Section 10). Scope The authors also conducted case studies of six The primary scope of this research is mini-grid sys- countries - Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria, India (Bihar), tems that serve remote and island communities in the Philippines, and Indonesia (Sections 11-16). The Sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia and island na- selection process of these case study countries in- tions. The majority of these systems are isolated, but cluded analysis of fundamental indicators such as those connected to the main grid were not exclud- electricity access, regulation and grid reliability ed. The sizes of the systems are mostly up to 100kW for 29 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and or so as typical consumers are households with low island nations (Figure 1). The authors selected the power demand, public buildings and small-scale six countries taking into account opinions from the commercial and industrial (C&I) customers. There are MGP Advisory Group to ensure diversity of coun- some exceptions of systems above 1MW where the tries across regions, geographies, regulations and mini-grid serves a number of large power consum- coverage by existing research publications. Key ers. For the purposes of comparison, the research findings from the case studies were also used in also investigated mini-grid projects and businesses the analysis contained in other parts of the report outside Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and island nations. (Sections 1-10). 4 STATE OF THE GLOBAL MINI-GRIDS MARKET REPORT 2020 Figure 1 Selection methodology of case study countries 29 long-listed countries Analysis of fundamental Shortlist candidate 518.7 million people without electricity access indicators countries for case study (73% in sub-Saharan Africa) Short-listed countries: Electricity access 6 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Asia Access rate, national target, 6 Asia Côte d’Ivoire Afghanistan 3 island nations Congo (Dem. Rep.) Bangladesh off-grid target, rate of increase Ethiopia Cambodia Ghana India Kenya Indonesia Liberia Myanmar Regulations Mali Pakistan Licensing policy, availability of Consultation between Nigeria Philippines concessions, tariff structure Rwanda SEforAll and BNEF Senegal Island Nations Sierra Leone Haiti South Sudan Papua New Guinea Grid reliability Tanzania Vanuatu Sales loss due to electrical Uganda Fiji Decide six countries for case study outages, diesel generator imports Zambia Nauru Uganda, Tanzania,