THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Volume 5, No. 1 February 2007 Military Institutions The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is a Central Asia-Caucasus & Silk Road Studies Program publication. The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program is a joint transatlantic independent and externally funded research and policy center. The Joint Center has offices in Washington and Uppsala, and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Department of Eurasian Studies of Uppsala University. It is the first Institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is today firmly established as a leading center for research and policy worldwide, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders and journalists. The Joint Center aims to be at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security and development in the region; and to function as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion of the region through its applied research, its publications, teaching, research cooperation, public lectures and seminars. The China and Eurasia Forum is an independent forum which seeks to bring together regional experts, academics, government policy makers, and business leaders with an interest in the growing relationship between China and Eurasia. Focusing primarily on Sino-Central Asian, Sino-Russian, and Sino-Caucasian relations, the aim of China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is to foster discussion and information sharing between a geographically distant community that recognizes the significance of China's emergence in this important part of the world. The journal aims to provide our readers with a singular and reliable assessment of events and trends in the region written in an analytical tone rather than a polemical one. Upcoming Issues * May 2007 – (Deadline for Submissions April 1, 2007). * August 2007 – (Deadline for Submissions July 1, 2007). Subscriptions Subscription inquiries and requests for hard copies should be addressed to: The China and Eurasia Forum, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036, United States or The China and Eurasia Forum, The Silk Road Studies Program, Uppsala University, Box 514, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected] or call +46 - 18 - 471 72 63. Visit our Website at: www.chinaeurasia.org The publisher and sponsors assume no responsibility for any statements of fact or opinion expressed in the articles or commentaries. Printed in Sweden by Uppsala University © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, 2006. The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly (ISSN 1653-4212) is published by the Central Asia- Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program <www.silkroadstudies.org>. Map used in the cover design is courtesy of the University of Texas Libraries, The University of Texas at Austin. THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Volume 5, No. 1 February 2007 Guest-Editor Erica Marat Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Johns Hopkins University, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies & Department of Eurasian Studies, Uppsala University This publication was made possible with the support of The Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY EDITORIAL BOARD Editor-in-Chief Niklas Swanström Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Johns Hopkins University, U.S. & Uppsala University, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Assistant Editors Christopher Len Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Uppsala University, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Nicklas Norling Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Uppsala University, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Senior Advisors Daniel L. Burghart Malia K. Du Mont National Defense University, Co-Founder of the China-Eurasia Forum United States and Former Associate Editor of the CEF Quarterly. Currently at the CNA Svante Cornell Corporation, United States Research Director of the Central Asia- Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Matthew Oresman Program, Johns Hopkins University, U.S. Co-Founder of the China-Eurasia Forum, & Uppsala University, Sweden Former Director of the China-Eurasia Forum and Former Editor of the CEF David M. Finkelstein Quarterly, United States The CNA Corporation, United States S. Frederick Starr Pan Guang Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Institute, United States China Farkhod Tolipov Bates Gill National University of Uzbekistan, Center for Strategic and International Uzbekistan Studies, United States Dmitri V. Trenin Zhao Huasheng Carnegie Endowment for International Fudan University, China Peace, Russia James A. Millward Georgetown University, United States THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Volume 5, No. 1 February 2007 Contents Kazakhstan’s Partnership with NATO: Strengths, Limits and Prognosis Roger N. McDermott .........................................................................................7 The Modernization Drive of the PLA and the New Defense White Paper Jagannath P. Panda............................................................................................21 China’s Relations with Azerbaijan Fariz Ismailzade ...............................................................................................29 Post-Soviet Military-Political Integration: The Collective Security Treaty Organization and its Relations with the EU and NATO Alexander I. Nikitin......................................................................................... 35 Russia’s Opposition to Georgia’s Quest for NATO Membership Kakha Jibladze..................................................................................................45 Civil-Military Relations and the 2007 Elections in Pakistan: Impact on the Regional Security Environment Talat Masood ................................................................................................... 53 International Factors Stopping Security Sector Reform: The Uzbek Case Peter K. Forster ................................................................................................ 61 Changes in Uzbekistan’s Military Policy after the Andijan Events Rustam Burnashev and Irina Chernykh............................................................67 The Russian Defense Reform Irina Isakova .................................................................................................... 75 Soviet Military Legacy and Regional Security Cooperation in Central Asia Erica Marat...................................................................................................... 83 Nationalists, Muslim Warlords, and the “Great Northwestern Development” in Pre-Communist China Hsiao-ting Lin ................................................................................................. 115 Editor’s Note Dear Colleagues and Friends, The military is an important, yet often shrouded attribute of state sovereignty. Although it is widely acknowledged that military institutions perform a key role in the functioning of the state, very few authors incorporate military-related variables into their analysis of national and international security dynamics. This is partly due to the fact that information pertaining to military issues are often unavailable to the public. Estimates are often employed not only in assessing the military capabilities of states, but also in identifying the impact of the military on the international behavior of states. Military capability, in turn, is measured in a number of ways, including possession of military infrastructure, military production, scientific base, number of military personnel, potential to implement effective military reform, and incentive to participate in regional and international alignments. This issue of the China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly features articles by leading military and security experts. The contributors examine the challenges and outcomes of national military reforms, military and security cooperation, and the prospective repercussions of domestic and foreign security policies. All of the articles in this issue dealing with the Eurasian countries touch upon the importance of international and transnational organizations, such as: NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Aside from the implications these organizations create for regional security dynamics, present or prospective membership of states in such organizations also directly impact on domestic military institutions. Kakha Jibladze shows how the aftermath of the Rose Revolution and the coming of Mikheil Saakashvilli’s pro-Western government moved Georgia closer to joining NATO. Georgia’s ambition to join NATO has been driving the country towards substantive reforms to achieve Western standards of professionalism and political control of its military sector. Similar to Georgia, Kazakhstan has been taking important steps towards enhancing cooperation with NATO. Roger N. McDermott examines Kazakhstan’s successful collaboration with NATO and its emergence as a regional military leader in Central Asia. According to McDermott, both NATO